Fantasy Baseball 2018: Brad Brach is a closer to avoid

The Orioles will have a new closer for at least the first half of the season. Brad Brach will get guaranteed saves but that may not be enough.

The Baltimore Orioles haven’t been active this offseason. Yes, they still have Manny Machado but the starting rotation needs some help. The team will be without closer Zach Britton for the first half of the season. Brad Brach will take over the role but fantasy owners may want to stay away.

Things may not get better for Brach on the surface this season. Pitching in the American League East doesn’t favor many pitchers. Granted, Brach will pitch four to five innings per week but those could be crucial innings. He could face the slugging trio of Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in one inning or one of the power hitters on either the Boston Red Sox or Toronto Blue Jays when the game is on the line.

Projections aren’t in Brach’s favor this season, either. Steamer is projecting a 4.17 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.52 B/9 and 3.67 BB/9 with just 15 saves. I agree with some of those numbers but not all. I don’t think his ERA will be above a 3.5 or WHIP over 1.25.

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However, I do think his strikeout and walk rates will stay around the same in 2018 as they were in 2017. Saves are a fickle stat because it relies on a couple of things.

One, the starting pitcher and middle relievers need to prevent opposing offenses from scoring and two, the offense needs to score at least one more run than their opponent.

I think the Orioles have the offense has the skill to score runs but the starting pitching is a big question. As a result, 15 saves is an accurate number for his first half. By then, Britton is expected to be back on the mound in the ninth inning.

Brach led the Orioles in saves last season with 18. Britton had 15 before getting hurt. He finished with a 3.18 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 over 68.0 innings. Most of those numbers are down from his 2016 season but still worth having on your fantasy team.

Looking at his innings splits, Brach did not pitch well in the ninth inning. He had a 3.94 ERA and 1.146 WHIP in 29.2 innings in the ninth. He had a 2.96 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in the eighth. Once Britton comes back, his value will rise as he becomes the setup man. Until then, avoid on draft day.

There are other relievers that may not get saves but that would provide more value for your ratios and strikeouts. Names like Andrew Miller, Chris Devenski and David Robertson come to mind.

Next: Mets sign Todd Frazier: Fantasy impact

Brach comes in as my No. 23 relief pitcher. He will be the Orioles closer for the first half but will likely lose the job in the second half. If he’s available at that point, I would invest in him for the holds as my RP6.

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