Why are Cleveland Indians pitchers so undervalued in fantasy?

Don’t believe the media that the Astros have the best rotation. The Indians pitchers are strikeout artists and all offer far better fantasy value for their draft position.

The Indians have six candidates for their rotation. Five of them were among the top-20 strikeout pitchers last season with a rate of at least 10.0 SO/9. There is an argument that all of them are underrated.

33-year-old Josh Tomlin (ADP 456) has the lowest walk rate of any starter in the league, and it is not even close. Over the last three years, he has allowed just 1.00 BB/9. The next best is, unsurprisingly, Clayton Kershaw, who allowed a whopping 34% more.

With less than 7.00 SO/9, he won’t help your strikeouts category, and he won’t help your ERA either. Although, unless you play in a shallow league, he won’t hurt it. Of the 125 starters to throw at least 100 innings last season, Tomlin’s 4.12 FIP was the 52nd best. That’s in the top half. There are many league formats where Tomlin’s skills are useful, and he is available for next to nothing.

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It is presumed that Tomlin will compete for the fifth rotation spot with Mike Clevinger (ADP 217). The 27-year-old has the potential to be one of the best pitchers you can draft outside of the first 200 picks. He was an 11-game winner last season with 2.84 ERA and 10.0 SO/9 in 23 starts.

Clevinger utilizes a low-90s, high-movement fastball to set up his trio of strikeout pitches. His slider, curveball and changeup generate an elite 20% swinging strike rate. Don’t worry about the rotation battle; Clevinger is a class act, and the Indians need him to make 25+ starts. I am drafting him in every league.

Drafting Danny Salazar (ADP 173) hoping for top-25 production has made the fantasy baseball world wary of the 28-year-old after he has failed to live up to expectations in three of the last four years. The Dominican just cannot stay healthy, but when he does, he notches up strikeouts for fun. The 12.7 SO/9 was only bettered by Chris Sale last season and his 16.4% swinging strike rate led all starters.

Elbow and shoulder issues limited him to 103 innings in 2017, and there is the risk that the Indians will protect Salazar by moving the fireballer into the bullpen. Draft him as your fourth or fifth starter, and you could have an ace on your team if he reaches 200 innings for the first time.

Did Trevor Bauer (ADP 145) make the leap to the next level last season? Career-high strikeouts, career-low walks, lowest-ever FIP and xFIP, and this was against his highest HR/FB. The enigmatic right-hander utilizes six pitches, including a 94-mph fastball that he can reach back to get up to 98-mph. He made 32-starts with just under 200 strikeouts in 176⅓ innings and was a top-25 pitcher according to WAR. Consolidation of the gains and an improvement of this WHIP to below 1.30, could finally make Bauer the top-10 pitcher that was expected when he was taken with the third overall pick in 2011.

In a previous article, we argued that Corey Kluber (ADP 18) should be the first pitcher off the board. He won his second AL Cy Young Award thanks to 2.25 ERA, 265 strikeouts and league-leading 0.87 WHIP. He is the model of consistency with four straight years of 200-plus innings, an average of 250 strikeouts and elite ratios.

After the big-four starting pitchers are off the board, the next tier all have their own risks, but Carlos Carrasco (ADP 36) should be the fifth starter drafted, not the 12th.

Stephen Strasburg, Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner endured injuries. Luis Severino and Robbie Ray need to show that their performance is repeatable. Age will catch up to 35-year-old Justin Verlander. Carrasco has a better strikeout rate than Zack Greinke, and his 3.10 FIP was significantly better than Jacob deGrom’s. The Indians’ No.2 starter pitched 200 innings of high-strikeout baseball, and it looks like the Venezuelan is getting better.

Next: 2018 fantasy relevant pitching prospects

Maybe it is because Cleveland is a small market team, but the six pitchers are all underrated in fantasy baseball. They could all return value on their draft day position. Don’t let the bias of the media cloud your judgment on draft day.