Indians Corey Kluber: second round bargain in fantasy baseball 2018
By Gavin Tramps
Year after year Corey Kluber returns elite fantasy value, so how is it possible that he falls to the second round of fantasy baseball drafts?
Every fantasy team will benefit from having one of the big-four starting pitchers spearheading their rotation, but the Cleveland Indians’ Corey Kluber is probably the best of the four yet drafted last for some reason.
Regardless of the league size or format, Clayton Kershaw is going in the first round. He always goes in the first round, he always pitches like an ace and he usually gets injured. He’s had less than 30 starts in three of his last four seasons. That is a waste of a first-round pick.
Max Scherzer is a first-round pick in 12-team leagues, and Chris Sale is the next to go a pick or two later. Kluber has an ADP of 18; that is a bargain.
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The ace of the Indians’ staff won his second AL Cy Young Award last season for another sensational year with 265 strikeouts at a rate of 11.71 SO/9 and led the league with 2.25 ERA.
His 0.87 WHIP led all starters and was only bettered by 10 relievers, and Kluber maintained this level for over 200 innings. This elite control over such a large workload is invaluable in standard 5×5 leagues.
For the fourth straight year, Kluber tossed over 200 innings. He averages more than 250 strikeouts across 32 starts. With 2.76 FIP, he has outperformed his 2.83 ERA and the 31-year-old is a model of consistency and reliability.
Scherzer, the workhorse for the Washington Nationals, offers a similar level of durability to Kluber. Their stats over the last four years are freakishly similar. They both have more than 1000 strikeouts in an almost identical number of innings (876⅓ to 878) with an uncannily similar result (2.83-2.86 ERA). Scherzer allows more walks and has fewer complete games, but you need to look at the underlying stats to see the difference. Last season, Kluber worked against a higher BABIP and higher HR/FB yet posted a superior ERA and WHIP.
Sale, the ace of the Red Sox rotation, produced the season of his life but most of the work was in the first half. He posted 3.12 ERA in the second half, compared to Kluber’s 1.79 ERA. In those final 14 starts, he threw fewer innings with fewer strikeouts, yet allowed more runs and issued more walks.
Kershaw is always the first starter off the board. The Dodgers’ talisman has failed to make 30 starts in three of the last four years and his 2017 season was worse than any produced by Kluber over this time. When he plays, Kershaw helps your ERA more than any other starter, but you need him to play. His fragility cannot possibly justify taking him ahead of Kluber.
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I’m happy to start my draft by grabbing an elite hitter while someone else takes Kershaw, Scherzer, and Sale. Kluber is mine in round two and it’s not often a second-round pick feels like a bargain.