NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday February 10
Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Friday’s NBA DFS was all about how much chalk you were willing to eat as the LeBron James and his punt play entourage delivered in a big way against the Hawks. LeBron put up 64 fantasy points while players like Kyle Korver, Jeff Green and Cedi Osman all crushed value by putting up 35-40 fantasy each and allowed you to grab a handful of other stars in your line-up. The winning line-ups all used the Cavaliers and paired them with the top stars on the night like Damian Lillard (69), Jimmy Butler (63) and/or Victor Oladipo (60) as the top fantasy performers of the night and reminded us that sometimes eating the good chalk is the right way to play in NBA DFS.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS: Where to start on this slate:
If you were like me last night leading up to lock, all eyes were on the status of Joel Embiid who was questionable to take the floor against the Pelicans as his status in the line-up for the Sixers would have drastically altered the look and feel of my roster builds. Tonight we look to be marching towards the same beat as Derek Bodner reports coach Brett Brown is “unsure” of Embiid’s status tonight on the tail end of a back to back against the Clippers.
Brown's unsure of Embiid's status for tomorrow. Says they'll learn more tomorrow morning. Low minutes (24) and no travel help.
— Derek Bodner (@DerekBodnerNBA) February 10, 2018
Thankfully, much like last night, we get the benefit of the Sixers being the first game on the slate so we should (in theory) have the injury news we need in order to build our line-ups. Last night, I built my core around the Sixers and Pelicans and I see no reason not to attack the same exact game environment tonight as this Philadelphia/LA game has the fastest projected pace of any game on the slate.
We saw the Sixers stars go absolutely off last night against a Pelicans team playing at the second fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games – you know who playing at the fastest pace? Yup – tonight’s opponent – the LA Clippers!
Let’s assume for a second that Embiid is out tonight – we know at this point in the season that all the remaining starters see a 3-4% usage bump each and it puts every single one of them in play. Ben Simmons ($14.9K) was on the doorstep of a triple double last night in only 25 minutes of action due to the blowout against the Pelicans which gives me hope that any sort of close game here would give us the potential for a ceiling Simmons game. What was really encouraging to see last night was how Simmons put up over a 25% usage rate and was able to rack up stats across the board with such ease in an extreme pace up spot which he will have the opportunity to replicate again tonight in a similar match-up.
Dario Saric ($11.9K) and Robert Covington ($11.3K) would be lock and load plays assuming Embiid is out with Saric being the top target as he sports a 30% usage rate and is putting up 1.2 FP/M without Embiid on the floor over the last month. The one player I would be wary of using here is JJ Redick who will have to deal with the defense of Avery Bradley at shooting guard for the Clippers.
Normally when I am all-in on a team like I am leaning towards with the Sixers here tonight, I like to run it back with the opposing team but the Clippers now being at full strength make them a tougher team to target in DFS. Last night against the Pistons we saw seven players on the Clippers put up double-digit shot attempts, spreading out the usage especially amongst the starting unit where no single player had a usage rate above 24%.
Lou Williams ($14.4K) is an interesting tournament play with his return back to a bench role as he dominates usage in that role as evidence by his 30% usage rate last night but his price point combined with the Sixers being a top 10 defense in terms of Def-Eff makes this more of a secondary play than a core play tonight!
NBA DFS – Late Night Hammer:
As much as I want to load up on the first game of the night on this six game NBA DFS slate, we cannot overlook the fantasy goodness that awaits us in the sole late night games between the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns will likely be without Devin Booker again tonight and will welcome Elfrid Payton ($12.2K) to the squad after their trade with the Orlando Magic. Payton is an interesting tournament play tonight as he will not only get an elite match-up against a Nuggets team ranked 28th in Def-Eff defending the PG position but with Booker and Tyler Ulis expected to be out, Payton will have no choice but to log major minutes in this spot!
Josh Jackson ($11.7K) continues to be the best target in my opinion from this Suns squad as even in a blowout like they suffered last game versus the Spurs, he still dominates the usage and has a high volume shot output with 17 or more shot attempts in three of his last four outings.
The Nuggets suffered a blowout of their own last night against the Rockets, down by 30 points entering the fourth quarter which is reflected in the lower than normal minutes for the Denver core starting group. Frankly there may not be a better bounce back spot for Denver who will take on a Suns team ranked dead last in DvP and Def-Eff as a team and oh by the way added a PG in Elf Payton who is ranked 71st of 99 qualified PG’s in terms of DRPM. Said simply – a bad defense just gets worse.
Nikola Jokic ($17.2K) is priced up for this spot and considering he has failed to top 40 fantasy points in either previous game versus the Suns there is certainly merit to fading him here if he is going to be popular. On FanDuel where Center is weak (assuming Embiid is out), Jokic may be the only real elite center you have the option to pay up which could make him a straight GPP ownership fade.
Jamal Murray ($12.2K) destroyed this match-up the last time they met as he put up 47 fantasy points against the Suns and had a similarly strong game against Elf and the Magic the last time they faced off, racking up 37 fantasy points in that game. Will Barton ($12.3K) just keeps churning out fantasy games in the 35-40 fantasy point range and you can easily mix and match the Nuggets trio of guards (Murray, Barton, Harris) who are all fairly priced in the mid-range on FantasyDraft today.
With this game being the second fastest projected pace game on the slate, I think getting some late night exposure here is critical when building your rosters. The way I would approach this games would be to use it as a fill-in spot which means I will likely not be prioritizing someone as expensive as Jokic but will look to mix and match some of the mid-range plays on both sides of the ball in this pace up spot!
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
The interesting thing about tonight’s slate is that on the face of it, we do not have any studs we would seemingly need to jam in our rosters but the reality is we have enough value (and potentially more if Embiid sits) that would give us an avenue to pay up for the slate’s biggest names. In a way, this feels very similar (maybe not as extreme) to Thursday’s slate where the mid-range and value plays are strong and we have the money to pay up even if it is for guys we may not think are critical to winning the slate.
The Warriors have the highest team total on the slate but they also see the biggest pace decrease of any team in action as they take on the Spurs tonight. In their earlier season match-up both Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant put up 45 fantasy points each so the raw points are certainly viable to chase but from a point per dollar perspective we may be better off using our salary in other spots tonight.
The one play that will likely be chalky from this game tonight is Patty Mills ($7.4K) who will draw the start at PG with both Tony Parker AND Dejounte Murray ruled out for this game. We have not had a game this season where both PG’s have been out so we do not have any perfect game logs to look back at but it is worth noting that Mills started the last game against Golden State, playing 28 minutes and logging 18 fantasy points. Mills has flashed upside this season, with two games of 35+ fantasy points in the starting line-up but it is worth noting that this is a player who sports a 20% usage rate and puts up .8 FP/M with Parker/Murray off the floor so this is not a slam dunk value play but as we saw last night with the Cavaliers value – sometimes you just play the chalk value when the minutes will be there.
I will be very interested to see how popular Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19.9K) and the Bucks players become today as honestly at first glance it felt right to gloss over a game with a 204 total and the lowest projected pace on the board but can we really just ignore one of the top stars in the NBA against a Magic team ranked 29th in DvP and 27th in Def-Eff?
The Bucks/Magic played earlier this month and Giannis had a solid 37 fantasy point outing while his teammates Malcolm Brogdon (41), Eric Bledsoe (34) and Khris Middleton (33) all came through with solid outings as well. Therein lies the problem – on the surface the match-up seems ideal against a bad defense but the low total/pace and the “blah” performances in their earlier season match-up make them appear as better secondary plays than core options. If the buzz on the Bucks is low throughout the day it could be an interesting spot to attack them as they will be without Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic again!
D.J. Augustin ($9K) has seen his price rise as the new starting PG for the Magic with the departure of Elfrid Payton and after a 40 point outing last time out the price bump is certainly warranted. In that game, Augustin shot the ball a team leading 14 times, dished out 9 assists and played 35 minutes and with the Magic short-handed again tonight, he would be the one guy I would look to utilize as guys like Fournier, Simmons, Hezonja will have to deal with the elite wing defense of Giannis/Middleton.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: D.J. Augustin ($6,200)
PG: Patty Mills ($4,300)
SG: Gary Harris ($6,700)
SG: Avery Bradley ($4,600)
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)
SF: Robert Covington ($5,700)
PF: Ben Simmons ($8,700)
PF: Dario Saric ($7,100)
C: Richaun Holmes ($5,000)
Slate Overview: At first look, I am not sure there is any must have spot off the bat although the Sixers in an extreme pace up spot against the Clippers looks to be the best place to exploit. The issue is we are going to need to wait on the Joel Embiid news again so my guidance is this (if you intend to use the Sixers as a core) – build one line-up with Embiid and one without, write them down and put them to the side until we get closer to lock. I do this every day and it is extremely helpful during the pre-lock craziness as I already have an idea of what my roster build would look like and I can easily pivot once I know the status of Embiid. Good luck tonight – enjoy your Saturday and let’s win big!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests on FanDuel and FantasyDraft and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis.