Fantasy Baseball Deep Leagues: Finding value within the Tampa Bay infield
By Gavin Tramps
Competition for playing time within the Tampa Bay Rays’ infield will be fierce this season, and all of the nine candidates will have an ADP outside of the top 450 picks.
The Rays will hope Brad Miller bounces back from 2017’s disappointing campaign. The 28-year-old has experience at second base and shortstop but is expected to be the Rays’ primary first baseman. His breakout season of 2016 saw the right-hander hit 30 home runs, which with SS-eligibility was extremely valuable. Last year he slumped to .210 AVG with only nine home runs and an OPS more than 120 points lower than the year before.
Continual groin and core muscle issues, which forced him to the DL twice and resulted in offseason surgery, attributed to much of his poor production. The Rays avoided arbitration and agreed a $4.5 million deal, suggesting they are confident that he will offer improved production this year.
If Miller falters, the Rays have speedy first base/outfield prospect Jake Bauers waiting in Triple-A, fresh from his 13 home-run and 20 steals season. He is a high on-base prospect who will offer valuable stolen base contributions from first base when he gets promoted. He has been identified as one of the top prospects to watch this season with the potential to have an impact in fantasy leagues in 2018.
There is also the strong possibility that the Rays sign one of the numerous free agent first basemen that are still available, and if a slugger like Mike Napoli, Lucas Duda or Logan Morrison joins, then Miller will be fighting for at-bats at second base.
The depth chart shows Joey Wendle starting at second base on Opening Day. The 27-year-old arrived from Oakland in December in exchange for cash considerations. Like Duffy, Wendle doesn’t like taking a walk (3.7 BB% last season in Triple-A). In 2017, he hit .285 with eight home runs with 13 stolen bases. Wendle could accumulate counting stats if he plays every day, but with one option remaining, he will be on a short leash with the big league club.
Many Rays’ fans want the second base job go to their former first-rounder, Daniel Robertson. He is a versatile, low-ceiling infielder who struggled mightily in the majors last season with .206 AVG and .634 OPS. He rediscovered his touch after a demotion to Triple-A slashing .359/.419/.462 over 10 games. The 23-year-old has always demonstrated the ability to take a walk but does not offer much power or speed.
Speed is the trademark of Micah Johnson. Claimed off waivers in November, the 27-year-old has never been given an extended run in the majors. He looked like a potential fantasy superstar after hitting .312 and swiping 84 bags in 2013 in the minors. Johnson continued to hit and run for the next year and a half, but as soon as he reached the majors, his career stalled. In 116 at-bats in the big leagues, he posted .550 OPS with just four stolen bases.
Johnson has no options remaining, so he will either make the Rays’ 25-man roster or be let go. The stolen bases in his past give the left-hander intriguing fantasy value if he surprisingly secured the second base job out of Spring Training.
The fourth candidate at the position offers no speed but significant power. Ryan Schimpf has an impressive return of 34 home runs in his 142 games at the Major League level. Unfortunately, Schimpf’s 2017 production came at a league-low .158 batting average, in part due to the 35.5% strikeout rate. It is difficult to overstate the damage that such an extreme rate does to your batting average in roto leagues. He hits fly balls at historic levels, but the low contact rates and defensive inadequacies will make it tough for the Rays to install Schimpf at second base.
For the first time since 2008, the Rays need a new third baseman, and the depth chart shows Matt Duffy manning the hot corner. Duffy burst onto the fantasy scene in 2015 with five-category production, finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting behind Kris Bryant.
A heel injury and complications following derailed his career and the 27-year-old did not make a single appearance in 2017. He is back running now and could be a sneaky pick if he gets through Spring Training intact.
Duffy has only had one good season. He hit .295 (.762 OPS) with 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. He didn’t walk (4.5 BB%), and his low FB%/high GB% profile does not inspire enthusiasm.
Much of his fantasy value came from his multi-position eligibility, but in 2018, he will only 3B-eligible. If he gets 500 at-bats, he will accumulate enough counting stats to be a useful corner infielder, but there is lots of competition for playing time.
In the recently announced MLB Pipeline Top-100 prospects, Christian Arroyo featured at No. 81. He destroyed Triple-A last year with .439/.471/.682 in April and then looked like a fantasy stud when he exploded with three home runs in his first 11 games in the majors. He fell back down to earth with .165 AVG over the next 23 games before a demotion back to Triple-A. A broken hand brought his season to an abrupt end.
He doesn’t offer much power or speed, but the 1.065 OPS in Triple-A demonstrates there is fantasy potential from the 22-year-old. Don’t ignore the fact that he is highly ranked by very knowledgeable prospect evaluators.
The infielder with the greatest expectation of taking the field on Opening Day is shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria. The 28-year-old is a glove-first/bat-second right-hander who doesn’t walk (3.7 BB%), doesn’t get on-base (.289 OBP) and swings at everything, especially balls thrown outside of the strike zone.
His production of 17 home runs, 19 stolen bases and .264 AVG would make him an exciting player to draft, had it not taken him four years (528 games) to accumulate these stats. It is difficult to see how Hechavarria will have any fantasy value, apart from in leagues where anyone with regular playing time has value.
The Rays are paying Hechavarria $5.9 million in 2018 after losing in arbitration, so if their top position prospect Willy Adames is to make an impact in fantasy this season, it will likely not be at shortstop. Adames can play second or third, and despite being more than five years younger than the Triple-A average, he slashed .277/.360/.415 with 10 home runs, 30 doubles and 11 stolen bases last season. The production was almost identical to the stats he put up the year before in Double-A.
When he reaches the majors, the 22-year-old will offer the potential for double-digit home runs and stolen bases, with an on-base percentage above .360. He will likely grow into more power as he matures, but even now, the walks, plate discipline and doubles-power look very enticing in points and OBP leagues.
Final quick take
Even for deep fantasy leagues, it is difficult to find much to get excited about within the Tampa Bay Rays’ infield. Bauers and Adames have the most potential, but that is partly because they have not let us down yet. All of the players will be available very late in drafts and with youth on their side, one of them could be 2018’s fantasy breakout star.