Top-5 fantasy baseball shortstop prospects for 2018
By Gavin Tramps
We take a look at the shortstop prospects that will impact fantasy baseball leagues in 2018.
After a few barren years, the shortstop position boasts some of the most exciting players in the game. Many are still so young that the future at the position looks promising.
Our top-5 (or top-7 if you include the two players that narrowly missed the cut), includes one truly elite prospect and several others that will make a significant impact in fantasy leagues this season.
The nature of the position is that a few of the players listed in the article will convert to second basemen, which could help their fantasy value considering the shallowness of the position. Braves’ Ozzie Albies was a top-5 shortstop prospect last season before posting .810 OPS with six home runs and eight stolen bases in 57 games, all at second base.
Another graduate from last year’s list is Mets’ Amed Rosario. Having posted exactly .833 OPS for two straight seasons as he worked up the minors, he made his MLB debut on August 1. It was a tough initiation to the highest level of the game, but he hit four home runs with seven stolen bases in 46 games. Three walks and 29% strikeout rate is excusable from a 21-year-old.
The top shortstop prospect from last year made 551 plate appearances last season for the Braves. There was an assumption that Dansby Swanson would be a perennial All-Star. Perhaps he will be, but the 0.92 ISO and .312 OBP from his debut campaign leave plenty of room for improvement.
It serves to remind us that just because a player is the most highly rated at his position in the minors, does not guarantee immediate Major League success. Even the biggest names struggle.
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS
These shortstop prospects are unlikely to have fantasy value this season but are important players to know for dynasty leagues.
Royce Lewis (SS-MIN)
The first overall pick from the 2017 draft must be owned in all dynasty leagues, but he needs to develop more before he can be considered in the same class as the elite shortstop prospects in the game. In 54 games between Rookie ball and Single-A, the 18-year-old hit four home runs with an impressive .381 OBP and 18 stolen bases. ETA 2021.
Bo Bichette (SS-TOR)
Having posted 1.182 OPS as an 18-year-old in Rookie ball in 2016, Bo Bichette continued to enthrall Blue Jays’ fans by dominating Single and High-A with 14 home runs and 41 doubles as part of .988 OPS. He also swiped 22 bags and walked 42 times to 81 strikeouts. The high-ceiling 19-year-old must be owned in all dynasty leagues. ETA 2019.
Fernando Tatis (SS-SD)
The Dominican made Midwest League history last year as the first 18-year-old ever to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases in the same season. Between Single-A and Double-A, Tatis swiped 32 bags and scored 84 runs in 131 games. He will be a major fantasy contributor as early as next season. Padres’ shortstop Freddie Galvis and his 78 OPS+ is a free agent at the end of this year. ETA 2019.
Kevin Maitan (SS-LAA)
The hype over the switch-hitting Venezuelan has died down but don’t be fooled into thinking he is a flop. Although the 2017 Rookie ball .241/.290/.340 slash is uninspiring; the kid played the whole season as a 17-year-old. Now in the Angels’ system, don’t pass up the opportunity to own him in your dynasty league. ETA 2021.
Wander Javier (SS-MIN)
The Twins spent $4 million to sign Wander Javier as a 16-year-old from the Dominican Republic in 2015, and although throwing big-money at young talent is not a guarantee of future success, he should be on the radar of dynasty league owners. In Rookie ball last season, the 19-year-old slashed .299/.383/.471 with four home runs and four stolen bases in 41 games. ETA 2021.
Wander Franco (TB)
This is not the Wander Franco in the Giants’ organization who is the brother of Wander Franco, nephew of Willy Aybar and nephew of Erick Aybar, nor is it the Wander Franco in the Astros’ organization who is the brother of Wander Franco, nephew of Willy Aybar and nephew of Erick Aybar. This is the Wander Franco in the Rays’ organization who is the brother of Wander Franco, nephew of Willy Aybar and nephew of Erick Aybar.
He is the youngest of the three brothers and is considered the most talented. He signed for just under $4 million last year and will be in the Rays’ top-10 prospects next season. Baseball America notes “ferocious bat speed” and “above-average raw power”. ETA 2022.
Andres Gimenez (SS-NYM)
The Venezuelan has excellent hitting skills considering he was one of the youngest in his Rookie ball league. The 19-year-old slashed .265/.346/.349 with four home runs and 14 stolen bases. The ceiling is high. ETA 2021.
JUST MISSED THE CUT
If everything falls right, these two shortstop prospects could be in the majors this season.
Nick Gordon (SS-MIN)
Since taken with the fifth pick of the 2014 draft, Nick Gordon has appeared in top-100 prospect lists every year, although each season the prospect shine tarnishes slightly.
Despite not progressing at the speed that was hoped, his OPS has improved each time he has jumped up a level, culminating in .749 OPS in Double-A last season when he hit nine home runs, 29 doubles and eight triples while scoring 80 runs with 66 RBI.
With 68 stolen bases in four years in the minors, the 22-year-old does not offer the same speed threat as his brother Dee Gordon who had swiped 176 bags in his first four years in the minors.
Although he doesn’t have one standout tool, Gordon should be able to make modest fantasy contributions in all five categories with double-digit home runs and stolen bases.
No-one expected Jorge Polanco to explode with 13 home runs and 13 stolen bases in two-thirds of a season in the majors last year, so the Twins’ shortstop job is his to lose.
Gordon should be up by midseason, but don’t invest too heavily in name-recognition just to get mediocre fantasy production.
Jorge Mateo (SS-OAK)
The 22-year-old has speed to burn. In the current fantasy era of surplus power and limited speed, Mateo will have immediate fantasy relevancy when he reaches the majors.
Between High-A and Double-A last season, the Dominican swiped 52 bags while hitting 12 home runs, 30 doubles and 18 triples. He crossed the plate for 90 runs and contributed 57 RBI. This was a bounce-back season to re-establish him as a potential fantasy star.
In a way not too dissimilar to Billy Hamilton in the majors, Mateo does not get on base enough to exploit his speed to its full potential. For his .322 OBP, he walked 40 times to 144 strikeouts; that’s a 7% walk rate and 25% strikeout rate.
He needs to be owned in all dynasty leagues for his game-changing speed alone, and if your bench is deep enough, you could stash him for a midseason call-up if the Athletics’ infield pairing of Jed Lowrie or Marcus Semien cannot last a full year again.
Even if he is not up until after the trade deadline, he could still be a sneaky waiver claim for double-digit stolen bases in the last couple of months of the season.
NUMBER FIVE
Franklin Barreto (SS-OAK)
Part of the package that sent Josh Donaldson to Toronto in the infamous trade, Franklin Barreto offers the much sought-after power/speed combo. The 21-year-old hit .290 with 15 home runs with 15 stolen bases in 469 at-bats in Triple-A last season. He made two trips to the majors, hitting .190 in 11 games before the All-Star break and then .209 in 14 September games.
He has always suffered from an aggressive approach at the plate, but the rising strikeout rate is cause for concern. There are also questions about his defense which might result in the Venezuelan moving from shortstop.
With Marcus Semien and Jed Lowrie established in the Oakland infield, Barreto will likely start the season in Triple-A until an opening presents itself. You need to monitor the situation as 2018 could be a big breakout season.
NUMBER FOUR
Willy Adames (SS-TB)
The Rays love their infield prospects, and Willy Adames is the best to have come through the ranks for a few years. Despite more than five years younger than the league average, Adames slashed .277/.360/.415 with 10 home runs, 30 doubles and 11 stolen bases in Triple-A last season.
The Dominican has a good eye at the plate and has walked over 300 times in 553 games in the minors, suggesting that he will have good value in points and OBP leagues.
The 22-year-old is ready for the majors but is blocked at shortstop by the defensively superior Adeiny Hechavarria. The Rays have Joey Wendle and Matt Duffy provisionally penciled in at second and third base, so either Adames will need to change position or bide his time in Triple-A.
Expect Adames to be a modest five-category contributor in fantasy by midseason at the latest.
NUMBER THREE
J.P. Crawford (SS-PHI)
The influx of superstar shortstops has not helped the perception of J.P. Crawford. He is not Trea Turner or Francisco Lindor or Corey Seager or Carlos Correa. He is a polished defender with a bit of pop and a good eye at the plate.
Crawford regularly featured high on top prospects lists despite several uninspiring seasons in the minors. It came together for the 23-year-old last season, with a career-high 15 home runs, 20 doubles and 63 RBI in 127 games in Triple-A.
Although he looked overmatched in his September call-up to the majors (.656 OPS), the left-hander demonstrated his patience at the plate and walked 16 times to 22 strikeouts.
The Phillies traded away Freddy Galvis, showing their commitment to making Crawford their first-choice shortstop.
Don’t let prospect fatigue or his limited offense, stop you from drafting Crawford. Remember Lindor was a glove-first/bat-second minor leaguer, and look what happened to him.
NUMBER TWO
Brendan Rodgers (SS-COL)
The 21-year-old featured in the top-20 across all evaluator’s prospect lists at the start of last year. He looked like a potential No.1 when he destroyed High-A with 1.078 OPS. He came back to earth, ending the season hitting .260 in 150 at-bats in Double-A.
The powerful right-hander was taken with the third overall pick in the 2015 and presumably has 100% ownership in dynasty leagues.
The 21-year-old doesn’t offer much speed, but the significant three-category production from shortstop will help in every fantasy league.
He won’t hurt you in batting average leagues, but his inability to take a walk will reduce his value in points and OBP formats. Last season, he only walked 14 times in 400 plate appearances.
Rodgers only played 38 games in Double-A, so expect him to start in the minors, but he will be ready for promotion whenever the Rockies need him.
Current shortstop, Trevor Story, failed to build on the .909 OPS of his debut campaign with .763 OPS in 2017. He hit 24 home runs, but the .308 OBP and league-leading 191 strikeouts hurt the Rockies.
Power from the shortstop position is not as scarce as it was in Troy Tulowitzki’s prime, but invest in Rodgers for this season, he could be sensational.
NUMBER ONE
Gleyber Torres (SS-NYY)
We have Gleyber Torres as our No.1 fantasy baseball shortstop, but unless there is an injury to Didi Gregorius, it is unlikely that Torres will play shortstop this season.
The Venezuelan is one of the very best Minor League prospects in the game and, if the cards fall right for him, he could be Rookie of the Year by the end of the season.
There are two glaring holes in the Yankees’ infield for new manager Aaron Boone to fill. Torres spent time at second base, third base and shortstop last year, before Tommy John surgery in his non-throwing arm cut his season short in June. In the impressive 55-game stretch, the 21-year-old slashed .287/.383/.480 with seven home runs and seven stolen bases.
Torres could be a five-category fantasy baseball superstar. Speed is said to be his weakest tool, but the versatile infielder swiped 20-plus bags for two straight seasons in the minors.
There will be some rustiness after the layoff, but with a good showing at Spring Training, it is feasible that Torres could be manning second base or third base for the Yankees on Opening Day.
Despite his prodigious talent, perhaps the Yankees will not hand the responsibility to a player with only 81 at-bats above Double-A. Torres’ fantasy value will be determined by any further offseason moves made by the Yankees. Mike Moustakas, Neil Walker, Chase Utley, Todd Frazier and Eduardo Nunez are all free agents.
If Torres secures a starting job, he becomes must own in all formats. If the Yankees sign established infielders, you need to draft him to stash on your bench.
FINAL QUICK TAKE
Rodgers worries me. If I think of sub-5% walk rate players, I think of hitters like Rougned Odor and Ryon Healy. They have value in some formats but they also possess a high risk of busting. Many people will reach for Torres and he should be sensational, but he will need to show that he has fully recovered from missing half of last season. Crawford will drop in drafts and has the potential to return excellent value. In the early season consensus ADP data that we used for our article, the Phillies’ shortstop did not get taken in the first 300 picks.