NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday February 13
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Monday’s NBA DFS was relatively low scoring ss we had only two players top the 50 fantasy point mark – one as expected and one at essentially no ownership. Anthony Davis delivered a monster night against Detroit with 38 points, 10 rebounds and 60 fantasy points in performance consistent with his slate high price point of $21K. If you would have given me 100 guesses prior to tip-off who would have been #2 on the list last night I most certainly never would have guessed T.J. McConnell who racked up a triple-double and 53 fantasy points against the Knicks at less than 1% ownership in GPP’s. I love looking back at the performances the night before and trying to think through what scenario would have led me to McConnell and outside of a last man in scenario, I doubt I would have ever landed on him knowing Embiid was playing so kudos for those of you who nabbed a true tournament difference maker!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
We start off our Tuesday with an intriguing six game slate that kicks off at 7PM EST on FanDuel but FantasyDraft has opted to go with the 8PM EST start time and ignore the Heat-Raptors game on this slate.
As a first look article, I keep coming back to the simple fact that this slate literally hinges on one game and the status of one player – Russell Westbrook – in a national TV game against LeBron James and the Cavaliers.
Billy Donovan said Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony practiced today, though most of it was non-contact. Status for tomorrow’s game is still uncertain, with the plan for them to go through shootaround before determining.
— Royce Young (@royceyoung) February 12, 2018
My gut would tell me, with a back to back (playing tomorrow against Memphis), the fact he went through non-contact practice only and the most important fact – the All Star Break is two days away – this would seem like a spot where the Thunder just let him and Carmelo Anthony sit out and get healthy for the second half. The other part of my brain is screaming – but this is Russell Westbrook with a chance to take on LeBron on national television!
These two teams played just a few weeks ago in what was arguably the low point for the Cavaliers as they gave up 148 points to OKC where Westbrook went for 23 points, 20 assists and 63 fantasy points.
If you just look at the numbers, over the last 15 games the Cavaliers and Thunder are playing at the 4th and 5th fastest pace of any teams in the league so on paper this looks like a star-studded track meet we HAVE to build around. The issue is, if you look at the last two games with Westbrook off the floor the Thunder are playing at the fifth slowest pace in the NBA – amazing what happens when you take Westbrook off the floor huh?
So how do we handle this? If Russell Westbrook ($20.9K) is ruled in, then I think you make every attempt to stack him with LeBron James ($21K) and make your rosters work with nearly $9.6K per player left on FantasyDraft and $5.2K left on FanDuel. The pace will be through the roof with both stars pushing the ball up as the primary ball handlers and if you fade them you could be dead in the water before the slate even starts.
If Westbrook sits, the logical play is to use Paul George ($17.4K) who has put up a 42% usage rate in the last two games Westbrook has sat with 50 and 55 fantasy points in those games. You can certainly make the case to utilize Raymond Felton ($9.6K) who has played 32 minutes per game as the starting PG while logging 21 and 34 fantasy points in those games but the price is up so this is not the slam dunk play it was when Felton was priced as a back-up.
Alex Abrines ($7.4K) and Patrick Patterson ($7.1K) both stepped into the starting line-up last game for the Thunder and played 35 and 36 minutes respectively, putting up 27 and 28 fantasy points which would deliver 3.5x value at these price points – making them elite point per dollar plays on this slate!
The more I look at this game without Westbrook the less interested I really am in a game stack here and the rationale is multi-faceted. First off, the Cavaliers are coming off a sky-high performance against the Celtics, everyone thinks they are “back” and my guess is that the ownership on LeBron will be massive tonight but what else can we really count on in this game from the Cavs side? The blowout versus the Celtics meant we got no real insight into how the new minutes would break out as no player logged over 30 minutes and we saw a deep 10 man rotation.
My gut tells me that people are going to over-roster the fringe Cavs here in an effort to stack the value around LeBron and Paul George (again assuming Westbrook is out) – it is the sexy game stack, the national TV game and the first one on the slate. I could be wrong but the ownership feels like it could be weighted too heavily towards this game and the thought of chalk Felton and trying to sort through the 20-25 minutes of guys like George Hill, J.R. Smith and Rodney Hood feels like a disaster waiting to happen.
This game is a total wait and see for me but for the time being I would approach this game as if Westbrook is out which makes the LeBron/Paul George pairing an obvious one to build around. I would tread lightly with the fringe players here and only use them as last men in and would frankly side more with the Thunder value plays who have clear paths to minutes (if Melo/Westbrook are out) rather than sort through an over-crowded Cavaliers bench.
NBA DFS – Is there a core build?
The reality is that on tonight’s slate, of the twelve teams in action tonight, eight of them see a pace decrease so there may not be a logical core build but rather a set of pivot plays that will spread out ownership and allow us to mix and match.
One of my favorite articles to read is the ESPN Schedule Alert which is especially important as he head into the All-Star Break and teams are in the midst of brutal condenses travel schedules. If you look at today’s date in the February breakdown, there is one game that stands out – the Nuggets and Spurs:
"Feb. 13: San Antonio at Denver | MahScore 8Hey! It’s Denver. Again! And just three days after getting hammered by the schedule, they’ll catch a break — sort of. First, the Spurs will be playing their third game in four days and the fourth of a six-game trip that starts in Phoenix, heads to Golden State and then to Utah, where they’ll play the Jazz on Feb. 12 before heading out that same night for Denver — which, again, is the worst place in the league to finish out a back-to-back set. The Nuggets will enter this game with a two-day rest advantage."
The Spurs were a popular value spot last night with LaMarcus Aldridge out and we already know he will miss tonight’s game against Denver which could leave the Spurs dangerously short-handed. We saw last night Pau Gasol play 33 minutes, Manu Ginobili played 22 and Tony Parker 16 minutes – is it possible any of these veterans get the night off on a back to back in the midst of a three in four set?
This question is less about the Spurs as I intend to ignore them entirely in this spot and more about the well-rested Nuggets who get to face the Spurs JV squad. Now normally we would not be rushing to roster guys against the Spurs but let’s look at what the Jazz did to this team last night:
- Donovan Mitchell: 48.25 fantasy points
- Joe Ingles: 39.25 fantasy points
- Derrick Favors: 35.75 fantasy points
- Rudy Gobert: 34.5 fantasy points
The Jazz played a tight rotation and were able to put up solid all around fantasy numbers against a Spurs defense without Kawhi and LMA and tonight there is the potential we could see even more guys rest on the back to back.
The Nuggets have been a team we have utilized a ton in Picks and Pivots because they tend to lean heavily on their starting unit and tonight with the Spurs being short-handed, I think you can make the case to stack the core four starters from Denver.
Will Barton ($12.3K), Gary Harris ($11.9K) and Jamal Murray ($11.9K) are all priced reasonably and would need roughly 35 fantasy points to return value – essentially the exact same production the Jazz got from their guards in Mitchell/Ingles last night.
Nikola Jokic ($16K) is priced up for a guy who has not played more than 27 minutes in back to back games and has only eclipsed 50 fantasy points one time in his last four games which could lead the game log watchers to ignore him altogether tonight. Last night, Rudy Gobert was a popular target as DFS players looked to attack the Spurs interior defense without LMA so the same logic applies here tonight and if we get news that Pau Gasol is sitting out, this could be a spot for a massive Joker games that will likely be over-looked on this slate!
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
The Minnesota-Houston game looks to be the most logical pivot stack off the Cavaliers-Thunder tonight as we have a 222 game total and 2 point spread, making this a solid game environment to build around. On FantasyDraft, the price point for Karl-Anthony Towns ($15.9K) feels entirely too cheap considering this is a player who has put up 53 fantasy points in two of his last three games and dropped 63 fantasy points against this very same Houston team the last time they played!
On FanDuel, I love the idea in tournaments of moving off the chalkier LeBron James and actually paying $300 MORE for Giannis Antetokounmpo who could be the over-looked stud on this slate. The Hawks are ranked 28th in DvP and 25th in Def-Eff as a team and are ranked dead last in defending opposing wing players this season. Giannis put up 54 fantasy points against this Hawks team in their only earlier season match-up so we know the floor is safe here and if LeBron struggles as he did in the first meeting with OKC (33 fantasy points in 38 minutes), you could get a major advantage over the field!
No matter what sort of outcome you're expecting/rooting for ATL this season, here's something to keep an eye on:
— Kevin Chouinard (@KLChouinard) February 12, 2018
Ilyasova/Plumlee lineups: -8.9 in 461 minutes
Ilyasova/Dedmon lineups: +10.4 in 204 minutes
On the other side of this Bucks game we have a Hawks team that will get the benefit of having no John Henson to defend the interior and we just saw Dewayne Dedmon ($11.1K) drop 47 fantasy points against the Pistons on the back of 20 points, 13 rebounds and 31 minute. As noted above, the Dedmon, Ersan llyasova ($8.8K) has been one of the more effective combinations the Hawks have run this season and after the two players combined for nearly 80 fantasy points last game versus Detroit, they could make for an intriguing low-owned, low-cost stack to correlate with Giannis in a game stack!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Picks:
PG: Jamal Murray ($6,700)
PG: J.J Barea ($5,600)
SG: Will Barton ($7,600)
SG: Gary Harris ($6,400)
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)
SF: Taurean Priunce ($4,000)
PF: Ersan Illyasova ($4,600)
PF: Patrick Patterson ($3,900)
C: Nikola Jokic ($9,400)
Slate Overview: We have no choice but to wait on the status of Russell Westbrook tonight as his presence on the slate will completely change how we approach this slate. If Westbrook sits, I do think a fade of the Cavs-Thunder game is in play for large field tournaments as I expect the LeBron/George duo to be heavily owned in what could be a sneaky slow-paced game. With no other must have spot on the board, I think mixing and matching some of the “other stars” like Giannis, KAT and The Joker could be an interesting way to differentiate yourself from the field!
Best of luck in your FantasyDraft and FanDuel NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for the latest fantasy sports news and analysis!