Nylon Calculus: How long will the Utah Jazz’s win streak continue?

The Utah Jazz managed to outlast the Spurs last night to extend their winning streak to 10 straight games. This is the first time the Jazz franchise has had a double-digit win streak since the 2008-09 season when the team was led by Deron Williams, Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap.

During the current win streak, the Jazz have hosted an opponent-adjusted net rating of 11.1 points per 100 possessions. That net rating would roughly translate to a 66-win team over 82 games. Over the team’s first 47 games, they were instead playing at a 41-win pace. It is not hard to see where the improvement has come from either.

Using Player Impact Plus-Minus, my player value metric, the individual player improvement becomes incredibly clear. With the return of Rudy Gobert from injury, nearly all of the starters have gone from near average impact to star level impact. The bench has slumped a little, but the brilliance of Donovan Mitchell and Gobert, along with the steady play of Jingles, Favors and Rubio, has allowed the team to flourish during their win streak. The pickup of Jae Crowder at the trade deadline will only bolster the roster, as Crowder should have no trouble slotting into Quin Snyder’s system.

Evaluating the streak

To evaluate the streak and project forward, I am using my in-season game projection model. The model is trained off historical game data, and accounts for rest, travel, team strength, and matchup. Since I began using the model to predict outcomes, I have been able to correctly identify the winner in about 71 percent of games.

My model has the Utah Jazz as favorites in 18 of their final 25 games, including 13 of their next 15 games. If there was ever a perfect time for the Jazz to get hot as they make a push into the playoffs, now is that time. The most likely outcome is that the team falls between now the game versus the Mavericks on 2/24/18, with the team finishing with 12.8 wins on average.

The Utah Jazz franchise record for wins is 15, reached twice by the 1996-97 team led by the great pair of Karl Malone and John Stockton. My model currently gives the team a 16.3 percent chance of reaching that mark and an 11.0 percent chance of setting a new record. The biggest test standing in their way is a home game versus the Houston Rockets on Feb. 26. In their benefit, they will have a one game rest advantage over the Rockets. That potentially could hold them over in the fourth quarter if the game is close.

Next: What each NBA coach would be doing if he wasn’t an NBA coach

Regardless of if the team sets or reaches the franchise record, the Jazz this year have been an incredible story. Losing their franchise player, they have not only fought their way into playoff contention, but also discovered the future core of the franchise in Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell.