Fantasy Baseball 2018: Trea Turner is not a first-rounder

Why would you pass up elite first-round talent to gamble on a two-category speedster like Trea Turner?

It seems like some fantasy baseball owners are operating in a parallel universe, convinced that Trea Turner is the fifth pick. On NFBC, he is going even earlier. I just don’t understand it.

Presumably, the hope is for a massive advantage in stolen bases, but too many people are brainwashed into thinking this is a good strategy.

In an injury-hit 2017, Turner slashed a respectable .284/.338/.451 with 11 home runs, 75 runs, 45 RBI and 46 stolen bases in 98 games. I get it; you think that over a full season he will swipe 75-80 bags and score 120 runs. It doesn’t seem very likely though, does it?

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Forget 75-80 bags. Turner has never even stolen 60 bases. He played a full season in 2016 and swiped 58 across two levels. That’s great, but both Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton nabbed that many in the majors last season.

With his batting average dropping below .285, Turner is little more than just a two-category contributor in fantasy. He scores runs and he steals bases. If his stolen base total falls, then he becomes Adam Eaton, who you can draft with pick 145.

Stolen bases are important in fantasy baseball, but they are less important in real life. Who knows whether the Nationals’ new manager Dave Martinez will be so keen to send runners ahead of the reliable trio of Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy.

There is more likelihood of Turner’s stolen base total falling below 30 than reaching the heights of 75-80. Remember Jonathan Villar? He swiped 62 to lead the league in 2016. Last year his total dropped by nearly two-thirds.

Turner is expected to lose the leadoff role this season, to the aforementioned Eaton. This will impact his opportunities to swipe bags. It is easier to steal when hitting behind the pitcher (.181 OBP) than behind a player with .393 OBP in his brief Nationals’ career.

This is not an anti-Turner article. He is a great player. Sure, the .630 OPS vs. left-handers is not great, and the walk rate below 6% doesn’t help him get on base. Maybe he will develop some loft and not drag the ball to the tune of 50 GB%. It is also possible that his hard-hit ball rate will increase from 26.7% (which ranked him as 219th, just below the Ryan Goins).

I don’t want to gamble with my first round pick. I want guaranteed elite-production. By taking Turner so early, you are passing up ‘proper’ first-round power from Nolan Arenado, Harper, Giancarlo Stanton and Kris Bryant. You are also missing out on ‘proper’ five-category production from Charlie Blackmon and Mookie Betts, and you are missing ‘proper’ multi-category shortstops like Carlos Correa, Manny Machado and Francisco Lindor. And that is before you factor in the pitchers.

Turner just doesn’t possess the talent to be compared to the rest of the first-rounders. It is as if there is a media conspiracy.

The Nationals’ shortstop is a fine player and a great asset in fantasy if you take him in the fourth or fifth round but not with the fourth or fifth pick.

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Don’t be swept along by the media; draft a ‘proper’ first-rounder, get your stolen bases elsewhere (Gordon ADP 37, Whit Merrifield ADP 80, Eduardo Nunez ADP 142, to name just three) and leave your riskier picks for further down the draft board.

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