Fantasy Baseball 2018: Bounce-back candidates in the best shape of their life
By Gavin Tramps
The “best shape of their life” has become a cliche but don’t disregard these bounce-back candidates when preparing for your 2018 fantasy baseball draft.
It is an often-mocked phrase, but improved physicality is what you want from the fantasy baseball players you intend to draft, especially those players trying to bounce back from a disappointing season.
Greater muscle-gain, lower body-fat, more ripped physique; surely these are better qualities to see from bounce-back candidates during the opening days of spring training. After all, no one wants to read of a player showing up to camp with 35 extra unnecessary pounds caused by offseason indulgences.
Some players seemingly arrive in the “best shape of their life” every season. Blue Jays’ catcher Russell Martin is famous for making the proclamation for five straight years. Coincidentally, Martin has decided that becoming leaner has not worked, so the Canadian has added muscle over this offseason to get stronger so that he does not break down.
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As Ben Lindbergh noted in his Grantland article, for every Carlos Gomez, who announced he was in the best shape of his life just before he broke out in 2013, there’s a Prince Fielder, who made the same proclamation, before missing 120 games.
We want bounce-back candidates to report to spring training looking fit, strong, lean and determined.
Here are four players that look good and we expect to produce better results than they did last season.
Jorge Soler is in the best shape of his life
The former top-20 prospect has dropped 20 pounds and retooled his swing in an attempt to bring his .958 OPS Triple-A form to the majors.
When Kansas City traded Wade Davis to the Cubs in December 2016, they expected Jorge Soler to be their power-hitting outfielder for the foreseeable future. He was a valuable asset for Chicago to let go but was the odd man out in their crowded outfield. It was a win-win trade.
Soler sustained an oblique injury in Spring Training, forcing him to miss the start of the Royals’ season. When he did finally appear in powder blue, Soler hit just .144 in 35 games across three stints in the big leagues, shuttling between the Royals and Triple-A Omaha.
Although it was a disappointing debut season in the majors, Soler destroyed Triple-A with 24 home runs in 273 at-bats and .952 OPS. That’s 50-home run potential.
Of course, it requires a leap of faith to presume a Minor League slugger will return fantasy value in the majors, but Soler made definite improvements to his game, posting an eye-catching .388 OBP in Triple-A after only getting on-base at a rate of .247 OBP in the majors. He also displayed an impressive ratio of 50 walks to 82 strikeouts.
His ADP is way down at 519 but expect the 25-year-old to see everyday at-bats between the outfield and designated hitter for the rebuilding Royals. Regardless of whether Soler remains in the long-term plans at Kansas City or becomes another trade chip, his reputation will need to be restored, and that can only be accomplished by Major League playing time.
Albert Pujols is in the best shape of his life
His two previous offseasons were dominated by recovering from surgery, so this disruption-free offseason has been a welcome change for Albert Pujols. The future Hall of Famer has arrived at spring training camp feeling “great”, having shed 13-15 pounds and looks “slim, trim and ready to dust off his first baseman’s mitt.”
Although Pujols was one of only 23 players to drive in over 100 runs last season, it was the worst year of his career with 81 OPS+. According to the Wins Above Replacement metric, Pujols was the worst player in the league. It is a claim disputed by the Angels’ front office, but whether he was the actual worst player or 20th worst, there is no question that he was not very good.
Write the veteran off at your peril. The spring in his step should help Pujols avoid a repeat of his league-leading “grounded into double-plays” and lift his average up from the career-low .241 of last season.
Pujols will see starts at first base a couple of times a week, as the Angels get Shohei Ohtani and C.J. Cron playing time at designated hitter.
Pujols is available very late in drafts (314 ADP), but he will not need much of an improvement to his career-low HR/FB rate to lift him back to the 35 home run, 105 RBI hitter of 2015-16.
Despite RBI being a derided stat, one of opportunity more than talent, it is still a standard fantasy baseball category and should not be overlooked. Over the last four years, Pujols has hit 122 home runs with 420 RBI, with only Nolan Arenado, Nelson Cruz and Edwin Encarnacion driving in more runs.
It is possible that the increase in swinging strike rate and reduction in his contact rate point to the veteran’s career heading off a cliff, but his draft position offers the opportunity for exceptional value if he recaptures some of his old form in the revitalized lineup, spearheaded by Mike Trout.
Dominic Smith is in the best shape of his life
The 22-year-old isn’t a true bounce-back candidate as he has never achieved a level to which to bounce back.
Dominic Smith hit nine home runs with six doubles in 167 at-bats in his first taste of Major League experience last season, but that came with a dismal sub-.200 batting average and .262 OBP. His 27% strikeout rate was unlike any he had endured in his Minor League career.
Hitting for average had never been a problem for the former first-rounder from
the 2013 draft, as he posted three successive seasons in the minors with a batting average above .300.
Skeptics have always questioned the left-hander’s ability to hit for power, but he went some way to answering that with 25 home runs across Triple-A and the majors last season. This was more than he had hit in his previous four years in the minors combined.
Smith has battled weight issues but lost about 30 pounds in the offseason thanks to a strict diet and strenuous workout regime. He commented:
"“I feel more athletic than I’ve ever been”"
Smith’s playing time opportunities at first base were dealt a blow by the Mets’ acquisition of veteran left-hander Adrian Gonzalez, and the current depth chart shows the 35-year-old as the first choice. The Mets will unlikely carry two first basemen, so Smith will be tabbed for Triple-A Las Vegas if he fails to break camp.
Mets’ GM Sandy Alderson confirms that they are “still very high on Dominic” and that he is their “first baseman of the future”. It looks like Smith’s path to playing time will be temporarily blocked by a below-average 35-year-old that none of the other 29 teams wanted.
The post-hype prospect status of Smith makes him a very intriguing draft day pick in deeper leagues.
Madison Bumgarner is in the best shape of his life
Banishing the memories of last season, the Giants’ mercurial starter arrived in spring training camp in the best shape of his life.
"“I feel as good as I’ve ever felt, as strong as I’ve ever felt. I’m really excited to get started.”"
Madison Bumgarner was the third starting pitcher drafted last season with 14 ADP, but a dirt bike accident disrupted his 2017 campaign. Bumgarner injured his ribs and shoulder, missing 86 days, before posting a career-worst 3.95 FIP over a career-low 17 starts.
Although the season fell below the 28-year-old’s usual standards, he finished the year looking more like himself with 1.83 ERA over two starts against playoff-bound division rivals.
Over the previous six seasons, Bumgarner has thrown 1,276.2 innings with 3.00 ERA (3.07 FIP), 1.08 WHIP and 9.2 SO/9. Despite the substandard 2017, there was no drop in velocity on his fastball, and his curveball and slider remained elite pitches.
The Giants, with new additions Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria and lefty-killer Austin Jackson, will offer their pitchers more run support and there is also an uptick in their defense.
Don’t underestimate the tenacity of Bumgarner to bounce-back and re-establish himself as a top-3 fantasy ace. He will be pitching in the pitcher-friendly environment of AT&T Park, in front of an improved defense, backed up by a strengthened bullpen and receiving greater run support.
With an ADP of 26, you can get the highly-durable left-hander at the best value for many years. After six straight seasons of 200-plus innings, the abbreviated 2017 could give Bumgarner a surprising advantage this year.
QUICK FINAL TAKE
Not every player in the best shape of their life is worth consideration. Matt Kemp is well on his way to losing 50 pounds but does not need to feature in your draft day queue.
Pujols is a once-in-a-generation talent who deserves more love in fantasy drafts. He looked old and sluggish last year but does not need much of a return to form to provide a significant return on his draft position.
Smith and Soler are both post-hype players you can get with a late-round pick. Let the others in your league overvalue the small sample of their disappointing MLB production. Both players’ underlying skills are too good to ignore.
As for Bumgarner, he is just a fantasy stud and will be on every one of my teams.