Twins an ace away from challenging Indians

The Yankees and Red Sox may be the center of attention in the American League right now, but the Twins and Indians could also have a tight race in the AL Central.

The Houston Astros remain heavy favorites to repeat as World Series champions. But the Cleveland Indians are not far behind them. They won 94 games in 2016 and a whopping 102 in 2017. And for the most part, their depth chart looks the same as it did the past couple years. Make no mistake, they’re still contenders.

One team perhaps not getting enough credit, though, is the Minnesota Twins. Believe it or not, they may be closer than you think to challenging the Indians for a first place finish in the AL Central. After winning a paltry 59 games and finishing in last place in 2016, the Twins surprised the baseball world by winning 85 games in 2017 and making the postseason via the Wild Card.

It didn’t look like a fluke, either. There’s some real talent on that Minnesota team. To boot, they’ve arguably had one of the best offseasons in the league. Trading for starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi was a big move for them. And adding power bat Logan Morrison to an already-sound lineup makes them that much better. Morrison finished 2017 with career highs in OPS (.867) and home runs (38).

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Cleveland should still be favored to win the division. But the Twins could make one more move to make the AL Central one of the tighter races in 2018. Starting pitchers Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb are all still unsigned and looking for new teams. Landing any of these guys would make them an interesting dark horse in that division.

The Yu Darvish signing should have gotten the ball rolling on the starting pitcher market, but that’s not been the case. It has been over two weeks since Darvish inked a deal with the Cubs, but the top remaining arms still haven’t found homes for the upcoming season.

This kind of offseason lull isn’t unprecedented. We’ve seen it before. But it’s intriguing nonetheless to see so many star players take this long to find deals. Whether it’s collusion or teams holding out for an absolutely stacked 2018 free agent class, one thing is certain: it’s not good for the players or the league.

The Twins should take advantage of this situation. Jake Arrieta is likely not going to get a seven-year deal as he initially wanted. As far as dollars are concerned, he won’t get significantly more than Darvish, who signed for $126 million. In fact, he’ll probably end up getting less than that. Arrieta is a little older than Darvish, and a deeper look at the numbers favors Darvish as well. But Arrieta is now the best starter left on the market, and he’s still an ace-quality pitcher who has plenty of postseason experience. He would be the ideal addition to the Twins’ rotation.

Lance Lynn would be the second-best option for Minnesota. Lynn isn’t a big name, but there’s an argument to be made that he’s one of the more underrated pitchers in the league. To this point in his six-year career, he’s gone 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA (114 ERA+).

Tommy John surgery can deter teams from signing pitchers, but Lynn has done just fine since his surgery. In 2017, he started 33 games and posted a 3.43 ERA. His velocity really hasn’t dropped off, either. There’s still a risk factor with Lynn, but the numbers seem to indicate he’s still got it. He’d round out the Twins’ rotation just fine.

Of three pitchers, Alex Cobb is probably the riskiest. But the fact remains, he’s got an impressive resume. In six years with the Tampa Bay Rays, he’s pitched to the tune of a 3.50 ERA. Like Lynn, Cobb hasn’t lost any velocity on his fastball. But his strikeout rate has taken a bit of a plunge. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be less effective moving forward, but it’s still cause for concern.

Despite some red flags, there’s still a lot to like about Cobb. He may not strike out as many batters as he used to, but his career ground ball rate of over 50 percent is encouraging. Reuniting him with former Rays teammate Jake Odorizzi would be a good boost for the Twins.

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Don’t discount this Minnesota Twins team. As they currently sit, they’re in good shape to make another Wild Card appearance. Signing one of the big three remaining starting pitchers, though, would bring them closer to the Indians’ level. Maybe not quite enough to win the division, but it could be awful close.

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