D’Backs Taijuan Walker: Was the fantasy breakout legitimate?

Taijuan Walker had a breakout season for the D’Backs in 2017. But, can fantasy owners believe in his success?

Since 2013, Taijuan Walker has been nothing short of a fantasy tease. Heading into last season the Mariners had thrown in the towel on him, dishing him to the D’Backs in the Jean Segura deal. All Walker did in response was go on to have a career-best season, finishing with a 3.49/1.32 WHIP/146 K line.

But, is the breakout legitimate or a mirage?

No one will question the pure arm talent that Walker possesses. Yet, injuries and general inconsistencies plagued him from fully breaking through. The signs of Walker’s breakout started to manifest themselves last spring. Walker had 10 bone chips removed from his ankle before the 2017 campaign, tweaked his slider to have sharper movement, and even altered his delivery in order to add some deception.

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In 2016, Walker mostly threw a fastball/curve/split mix. However, last season, he maintained a fastball-centric approach but changed his mix to include the slider as his second most predominant pitch.  He upped the slider usage to 15%, scrapping his cutter, in order to put hitters away more with his secondary pitches.

The results came ten-fold. He increased his K per game to 8.4 per nine innings, increased his GB rate to 49%, and lowered his FB rate to 33%.  His curveball and change/split were as nasty as ever, so pair that with his already mid-90s fastball, and the full package finally appeared.

That does not mean he did not have his hiccups. His fastball can flatten out some which leads to issues with the long ball. He did surrender 17 last season, yet 11 of those came at Chase Field. Digging deeper, most of the damage done to Walker last season occurred in Arizona, as he posted a 4.18 ERA there in his 12 starts.

On the road, Walker was an ace notching a 2.92 ERA/84 K in 16 starts. He would not be the first pitcher to suffer from the effects of Chase Field, however, things could changing rather soon thanks to the humidor being installed this season.  Add that to an already encouraging profile, and the fantasy value continues to build.

In terms of the taking the next step forward, the D’Backs will want to see Walker last longer in his starts. He averaged 5.6 innings per starts, which only led to 12 quality starts. Walker is knocking on the door of the six innings that it takes to qualify for QS, yet needs to continue to harness his command to take that next level.

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After seeing tangible results stem from him altering his delivery, and the tweaking of his slider for the better, the combination resulted in a glimpse of the potential that Walker has. He continues to look sharp even this spring, further helping fulfill the idea that bigger things are coming.

Believe in the breakout and make him a target this offseason.