NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday March 6
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Monday’s NBA DFS slate started out with some of the craziest pre-lock (and post-lock) news we have had in a while as the Celtics made the decision to start Shane Larkin over chalk Terry Rozier/Marcus Smart and if you avoided them entirely you were probably very happy as not a single player topped 30 fantasy points and shocker, chalk Marcus Smart put up a dud as he normally does with only 13 fantasy points.
I made two stands yesterday – one was that Damian Lillard would be THE stud I would pay up for and the second was that I would fade Hassan Whiteside against the Suns due to his injury, inconsistent minutes and the return of Bam Adebayo. Well, I was officially 1 for 2 as Whiteside ended the night as the highest scoring player on the slate with 55.5 fantasy points (big time L for me) with Damian Lillard was right behind him with 55.25 fantasy points.
It was interesting to see scores lower than what I would have though as only four players including Whiteside, Lillard, LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo were able to top 50 fantasy points on the night.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
We have a huge eight game slate tonight in what should be a high scoring NBA DFS night as only two of the sixteen teams in action see a material pace decrease while 11 of the 16 teams in action see a projected point boost over their season long average.
Let’s not bury the lead here – the Pelicans and Clippers game needs to be stop #1 on your NBA DFS research tour today as it has a slate high 237 total, a 3 point spread and the fastest projected pace on the board. Fun fact – over the last 15 games the Pelicans rank 1st in pace while the Clippers rank 5th – so yeah this game is going to be a track meet with some huge offensive potential.
Since February 14th the Pelicans have played six games (including 2 in OT) and here are their point totals – 139, 124, 123, 125, 121 and 126 so forgive me if their projected total of 117 seems low.
In the same time period, the Clippers have scored – 129, 127, 128, 122, 92, 128 and 122 and although their projected total of 120 is nearly 11 points higher than their season average, it looks like even that could be low.
My point here is simple – you have two teams scoring seemingly at will, playing at lightning quick speeds and the spread if 3 points – if you do not have at least one game stack here tonight then you are doing NBA DFS wrong. The thing about this game that I love is that you have two teams that really are set on a core group of players that run a short rotation and frankly it makes sorting through the roster choices here quite simple.
We saw on Sunday with Emeka Okafor out, it was Nikola Mirotic ($12.2K) who joined the starting line-up and the Pelicans ran all five starters 30 plus minutes in that game including Anthony Davis ($21.3K), Jrue Holiday ($14.9K) and Rajon Rondo ($12.2K). It may sound overly simple – but I would have no issue clicking the lock button on all four players tonight as those four players combined for 180 fantasy points which considering their cost of $60K on FantasyDraft puts you right at the needed value in an even better match-up than they had against Dallas.
It will be interesting to see how people react to Cheick Diallo ($7.5K) after his monster 13 point, 15 rebound outing off the bench for 40 fantasy points which were by far his highest metrics (and minutes played) on the season but considering the Pelicans only ran 3 players off the bench for any material minutes, there seems to be some security with Diallo as the first big man off the bench with Okafor potentially out again (listed as questionable).
On the Clippers side, in a pace up spot like this I will simply keep running back Lou Williams ($13.4K) and my first inclination is to pair him with Tobias Harris ($12.9K). If you dig into the most recent game log for a short-handed Clippers team that remains without Danilo Gallinari and Avery Bradley, you will see that it is Williams and Harris that lead the team in field goal attempts and usage as versus the Nets, it was Lou Will with a massive 36% usage rate and 19 FGA while Tobias took 22 FGA with a 26% usage rate.
I understand the temptation to use someone like DeAndre Jordan here but it is interesting to note that over the last 10 games the Pelicans are giving up the second fewest fantasy points to opposing Centers and with his low usage rate and limited offensive game, I am worried about counting on him grabbing rebounds versus AD and company to reach fantasy value.
Similar to the Pelicans side of this game, you can essentially ignore the fringe pieces here and focus on the core Clippers plays which include mid-range guards like Austin Rivers and Milos Teodosic who will log heavy minutes but there upside in my opinion is limited so I would limit my exposure to them in cash games or utilize them only as last man in kind of plays within a game stack.
Basically this game is the prime spot for fantasy production tonight and my goal is to build around the core here in all formats and pick and choose my value across the slate to make it work!
NBA DFS – Looking for Value:
If you want to stack up the Pelicans-Clippers game on a site like FanDuel and you start your build with Rondo, Milos, Jrue, Lou, AD and Tobias as an example, you will have $4K per player remaining to fill out the last three spots on your roster which means you will be living in punt city for the rest of your build! The tricky part here, at least initially, is that we really don’t have any obvious value early in the day but with a slate this size we know heading down the stretch of the NBA season that we are almost guaranteed to get some players sitting out which would open up much-needed value for us tonight!
Doors swing open at #Warriors practice and there’s @StephenCurry30 making it rain. Not even the slightest limp.
— Monte Poole (@MontePooleNBCS) March 5, 2018
Now normally we would not look to the star-studded Warriors for value but this is a spot I think we need to keep a keen eye on today was the Warriors are massive 14 point home favorites over the Brooklyn Nets in a game with a 230 total and a projected pace that rivals the Pelicans-Clippers. The obvious risk in this game is the blow-out potential but that risk combined with a hobbled Stephen Curry, who left his last game against the Hawks with an ankle injury, makes this a prime spot for the Warriors to rest one of their big studs ESPECIALLY when you consider that their next game is against the rival Spurs on Thursday.
The news we have thus far is that Curry practiced in full and is fully expected to play so this is nothing more than speculation on my part but it is worth noting that Nick Young ($6.1K) was the Warriors guard who got essentially all the 4th quarter minutes with Curry on the bench against the Hawks. On FanDuel, I love the idea of using Andre Igoudala ($4,300) at SF who has played 25+ minutes in back to back games with 37 and 28 fantasy points which would more than exceed 6x at his price point. Iggy played 31 minutes in the first meeting with Brooklyn and racked up 25 fantasy points so he makes for a great salary saving option tonight in one of the best pur game environments available to us.
On the Nets side, what has been an overwhelming deep rotation for much of the season has actually been tightened up significantly the last two games as they have run a 9 man rotation and now get a massive pace up spot against the Warriors. On FanDuel, you can use either Joe Harris or Dante Cunningham at under $4K as both players are locked into 20+ minutes a night and would only need 19.5 FanDuel points to hit value. Over the last five games, Harris has hit that mark in four of his five outings while Cunningham has hit the mark three times with a massive 45 fantasy point outlier included. If you are creating multiple line-ups I love the idea of mixing and matching these plays as they allow you to keep the rest of your core and simply adjust some of the fringe plays.
The Mavericks look like they will be without Wes Matthews again tonight which could open up another start for Yogi Ferrell at the SG position. In looking through the game flow against the Pelicans, it was interesting to see how much run Doug McDermott ($6.8K) got as he played 33 minutes off the bench and has put up 17 FPG over his last two outings. His teammate Nerlens Noel ($6.6K) continues to play well in limited minutes as he has put up 16 fantasy points per game off the bench for Dallas and could once again be needed here tonight against the larger frontcourt of the Nuggets.
One other punt Center that could be interesting is Marcin Gortat ($4.1K on FanDuel) who will take on a Miami Heat team that he has had recent success against over the last two seasons. At this price point, Gortat would need only 20 fantasy points to hit value and he has easily hit that mark in five of the last six games against Miami and has actually hit 6x value (24.6 FP) in four of those six games including his last match-up earlier this season against the Heat where he put up 11 points, 13 rebounds and 27.6 FP in 27 minutes of court time!
Keep an eye on the news in some other potential blow-out spots as the Raptors are massive 12 point favorites over the Hawks and Portland gets a home game against the Knicks on the tail end of a back to back so this would seem like the optimal time to give guys like Lillard/McCollum a breather. Basically this is a day you are going to want to watch the news and see what value comes out as you will need it in order to fit in the studs from New Orleans-LA.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: Rajon Rondo ($6,500)
PG: Milos Teodosic ($4,400)
SG: Jrue Holiday ($8,500)
SG: Lou Williams ($8,000)
SF: Andre Igoudala ($4,300)
SF: Doug McDermott ($3,500)
PF: Anthony Davis ($12,500)
PF: Tobias Harris ($7,900)
C: Nerlens Noel ($3,900)
Slate Overview: To me this slate all boils down to finding the value to unlock the Pelicans/Clippers stack. This is a spot where I will simply look to attack one of the best possible game environments we have seen all season as we get a massive total between two of the fastest pace teams on the board with incredibly tight and consistent rotations. This is not a spot where I intend to pivot – frankly, I will let others make that mistake and I will look to build around the best possible core! I will keep an eye on the news and update and value plays on my Twitter account @2lockSports.
Next: Valspar Championship - DFS Golf Preview
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests across FantasyDraft and FanDuel and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!