DFS Golf: Getting Up and Down: Valspar Championship

DFS Golf: Valspar Championship

Welcome to the very first Getting Up and Down DFS Golf article! My name is Josh Thomas and you can find me on twitter at @dfsupnorth and in this weekly article we will be looking at a few golfers trending up and a few trending down to help you get up and down in Daily Fantasy Golf! The focus of this article is for DFS players who are only playing a few lineups each week. Information will be relevant for those who play 150 unique lineups, but the main goal is to help the casual DFS golf player see some green screens.

Last week at the WGC-Mexico, Phil Mickelson turned back the clock and won for the first time since the British Open in 2013. He had to fight off a late charge from Justin Thomas including a 72nd hole, hole out for eagle which forced a playoff. JT sent it long on the par 3 17th in a playoff, almost had his ball stepped on by a photographer, and ended up making bogey, while Phil two putted his way to a par. It was an interesting week as it always is at these No-Cut WGC events. JT was even par through 36 holes, and had this been a full field, probably would have missed the cut. He then proceeded to go 62-64 en route to a second place finish.

We saw Shubhanker Sharma break onto the scene in his first time playing in the states, holding the 54 hole lead before he was unable to make anything on Sunday ending up T9. Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Tyrell Hatton, and Rafael Cabrera Bello all had strong showings and top 5 finishes, something to remember for next year as the trend is that Euro Tour guys play well here. Adam Hadwin had a Sunday 66 to vault him into T9 (more on him later) Dustin Johnson just kind of hung around all week and never really mounted a charge on Sunday that many thought he might, finishing 4 strokes back in T7.

This week we head to Innisbrook Golf Resort and the Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida. This Par 71 plays around 7200 yards, though that can be lengthened or shortened depending on the weather. Copperhead doesn’t play like a traditional Par 71 as it has 5 par 3’s and 4 Par 5’s. The finishing stretch, aka the ‘Snake Pit’ is a 450 yard par 4 with water right, a long 200+ yard par 3 with no water but an undulating green, and a tight 430 yard par 4 with a green protected by bunkers that make it difficult to attack (ask Patrick Cantlay). This is a ballstrikers course where you are often taking less than driver off the tee. Fairways are tree-lined and you have to hit it straight. We will look to target guys who are straight hitters and strong long iron players. Not only are they going to have to hit less than driver off the tee, they will have lots of long approaches (175-225) which is also the length of most of the Par 3’s. Weather looks good for the week, though temps will drop from the 80’s to mid 60’s and 70’s, which could kick up a few storms, but its southern Florida and that’s to be expected. Wind plays a role, but maybe not as much as you would think with the abundance of trees on the fairway.

The goal of this article is to provide you with a few players who I feel are trending upwards and you should slide into your lineups each week. I’ll also include a few that are trending downwards that you should avoid. I’ll try to include players from multiple tiers and include some game theory and strategy for roster construction as well. Finally I’ll include my core GPP and Cash game plays on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I’ll also include some contests that I’m targeting on both sites.

DFS Golf – Who is Trending Up?

In this section we will look at a couple of golfers that you should target in your lineups this week. I’ll differentiate between golfers that I think are Cash or GPP Viable or Both.

Let’s start with the big news of the week and what is on every casual golf fans mind, Tiger committed Saturday afternoon to playing Valspar and Bay Hill back to back the next two weeks.  As expected, ticket sales went through the roof, Tiger appears to still be the driving force behind casual golf fans interest.  This is Tiger’s first time playing Copperhead and for good reason as the course doesn’t necessarily set up well for him. There’s no course history, and no reason to really expect Tiger to play well here. If he even has an average ball striking week I’ll be all over him at Bay Hill, but this week I’m going to avoid him….except for one line up. If you grew up watching 99-04 Tiger like I did, then you just have to play him in one line up. Even if it’s just lighting money on fire, I feel like I owe the GOAT to throw one line up on him every time he tees it up.

Now let’s get to this week’s Trending Up plays! All stats are courtesy of Fantasy National Golf Club.

Adam Hadwin $8,800 on DK $10,200

Last years winner, is heating up at the right time. He wrapped up last weeks WGC Mexico with a T9 and a 66. He also shot 67 on Saturday. While I don’t like to target guys who are defending champions as they often have lots of responsibilities to attend to off the golf course with sponsors etc. Hadwin’s game lines up too well here. The big knock on Hadwin is that he doesn’t gain strokes off the tee, and that ends up taking him out of contention at most courses but at places like here where you don’t have to be long and are required to play long irons not only off the tee but on approaches as well, his Strokes gained off the tee stats don’t matter as much.  Combine that with how well Hadwin putts and the strokes he gains around the green, he comes in as a huge value this week.

Adam has gained 7.4 and 10.3 strokes total over his last two tournaments and finished 9th and 6th. Hasn’t missed a cut since last year’s Northern Trust. I really think he can defend this week, he’s getting hot at the right time and is coming back to a course that he played extremely well on the last two years. Adam will be a part of my core in both GPP’s and Cash games, same as last week.

Henrik Stenson $10,200 on DK  $11,600 on FD 

John Huh $7,300 on DK $8,500 on FD 

Huh? John Huh? Yep, thats his name and while you may have no idea who he is, you would do well to put him in your lineup. Hasn’t missed a cut since the Sony and has finishes of 24, 26, 38, 45, and 3rd since missing the cut there. At this price point you are looking for someone to just make the cut, and John is going to do that this week. He has gained 5.3 total strokes in his last 5 tournaments and 2.6 in his last ten. On average at the Valspar over the last 5 years, guys who made the cut gained 1.6 strokes on the field, and he is doing at least that over his last 10 tournaments.

Looking at the last 3 years at Valspar, John ranks 8th in the field in DK points scored, and has finishes of T9, T22, and T33. He also ranks 21st in Strokes Gained Around the Green and 18th in Strokes Gained Putting, which will be two key stats this week. A perfect guy to insert into your line up whose ownership will be lower than 5%. He is a lock for me GPP’s this week and may find his way into my cash line up as well.

DFS Golf – Who is Trrending Down?

In this section we will look at a few golfers that are trending downwards, whether that’s statistically, due to course history, other narratives, or simply their price outweighs their value. Could these guys be on a winning GPP lineup? Absolutely, but this article is for the average player who is only playing a few lineups each week and isn’t massive multi entering 150 line ups.

Sergio Garcia: $10,900 on DK  $12,000 on FD (2nd highest priced…no way) 

I love Sergio. I know I’m probably in the minority but I love his fire. Statistically he fits well here, he’s the definition of a ballstriker and when his putter he gets hot he can win anywhere. He hasn’t played here since 2013 and was T7 that year. I think Sergio is a much more complete player now than he was in 2013, his game is in good shape, he’s happily married, he’s a major champion….everything I’m writing sounds like he should be in the trending up portion of this article, but there is one issue. His wife Angela is 9 months pregnant and ready to give birth to their baby any day now. (March 25th is her due date…the fact that I know this says how much I care about you, DFS golfer reader and trying to save you money.)

I’m extremely happy for Sergio, he’s had a tough go over his career, as one of the most unlikable players stateside, and he’s had some heartbreak (The Shark’s daughter) and it now seems like everything is turning up roses for him in life, love, and golf. That being said, if you’re playing 150 lineups you can burn a few on the chance that his mind is in it, he plays well, and doesn’t have to WD to go become a dad. If you are only playing 3-4 lineups, I wouldn’t waste a roster spot on a guy who there’s a legitimate chance he has to walk off the course and head to the hospital. As a new Dad I can say from experience how little focus I had in the days leading up to my son’s birth, now I’m not the athlete Sergio is, but still. Congrats to Sergio and Angela and the upcoming birth of their child, and I pray everything goes smoothly and there is a happy healthy baby soon, but I won’t be touching Sergio in DFS this week.

Tony Finau $9,400 on DK  $10,700 on FD 

Anybody watch the final round of the WGC-Mexico? Anyone see Tony Finau try to putt? I’m not touching him at $9400, I’m not even touching him at $8000. Finished 5th her last year and cut two years previously. Lost 1.9 Strokes putting last week. Average cut makers are gaining 0.6 strokes putting at the Valspar, Tony has done that in 2 months and at $9,400 you are expecting a Top 10 finish. Can he finish Top 10? Absolutely, but a missed cut is just as likely. You need to take some risks in DFS golf, but there is just better options and to be honest this is a range (9K) that I’ll likely be fading entirely.

Luke List $7,800 on DK  $9,000 on FD (laughable pricing) 

Found himself in a playoff with the world’s hottest golfer two weeks ago at the Honda Classic and true to Luke List’s history, his putter let him down late. Luke has one of the prettiest swings on tour and makes birdies/eagles with the best of them, but he also makes double bogeys or worse on a regular basis and when I see that he has a 3 footer for par on PGA shot tracker, I NEVER take it for granted that he made it, that’s how bad his putter can run. I wrote about recency bias in DFS earlier, and I would imagine that his recent high finish at the Honda will pump up his ownership this week, especially if one of the DFS communities biggest Luke List Truther’s touts him this week. Does have a 27th place finish here last year.  I’ve been burned by Luke way to many times and I’m not looking to have a Luke List cut sweat this week while he misses a bunch of 3 footers.

DFS Golf Wednesday Update:

As the week has progressed we have come to have a little bit better view of ownership for the week and I’ve had a little more time to dig into some stats.

Adam Hadwin is going to be extremely popular this week. We knew that coming in. My best guess is he will be at least 20% owned in GPP’s and close to 40% or higher in cash games. There’s good reason for him to be this popular. If you are only playing a few lineups I think we eat the chalk here and continue to roll with him in GPP’s and try to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup. If you want some leverage in a GPP you can fade him, but have fun watching him drain 40 footers all weekend. It’s also possible that the masses fade him because of expected high ownership and he ends up around 10% owned like Hideki at Waste Management. I’m not playing any less of him and will be sticking with him as a core in GPP’s and Cash games.

I’m coming around on Kevin Na especially in Cash games. Great course history, great form, statistically really fits (8^th in my model). At his price point he should be pretty highly owned (15% or higher in GPP’s) I’ll have a sprinkle of him in GPP’s because he can win, and he has found a way into my core in cash games.

Ross Fisher is apparently having some back issues and has been using it as an excuse for his play last week on twitter, he’s a world-class talent and has the skill set to win here, but he doesn’t necessarily fit the model and if he’s at risk to W/D if the going gets tough, I won’t have as much of him as I did originally. I’ll double down on Matt Kuchar in his spot.

Some value plays that I really like here if you are building lineups and need some cash savings.

(in order of preference)

Ben Martin DK $6,900

Austin Cook DK $7,100

Brian Harkins DK $7000

Keegan Bradley DK $7000

I think these guys are all legitimate GPP punts. The only one I may be comfortable with in Cash is Ben Martin, but you probably don’t need him.

Make sure to check my twitter @dfsupnorth for any updates and late breaking news, including W/D’s (Vaughn Taylor just W/D, He was originally one of my value punts). I’ll be sending updates on there with any late slate thoughts as well. Good Luck and looking forward to seeing those green screens on Sunday!

DFS Golf – Core GPP and Cash Plays

In this section I’ll share my core plays for GPP and Cash Lineups this week on both FanDuel and DraftKings. These are guys that I’ll be playing in a majority of my lineups and would suggest you try to find ways to fit them into yours! I’ll update this list as the week goes on and ownership trends start to take shape and news comes in, so be sure to check in on my twitter @dfsupnorth for any changes.

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DFS Golf – GPP Core Plays: 

Henrik Stenson: DK $10,200 FD $11,600

Ryan Moore: DK $9100 FD $9700 (too cheap)

Adam Hadwin: DK $8,800 FD $10,200

Ross Fisher: DK only $7600

Charl Schwartzel DK only $7500

John Huh DK $7300 FD $8500

GPP Low Priced Value 

Dom Bozelli DK $7100 FD $8,000

Talor Gooch DK $7100 FD $7600

Beau Hossler DK only $7100

Cash Lineup Core Plays 

Ryan Moore: DK $9100 FD $9700 (too cheap)

Adam Hadwin: DK $8,800 FD $10,200

Ross Fisher: DK $7600 FD $9600

Webb Simpson: DK only $8500 $10700

Kevin Streelman: DK $7600 FD $8800

Matt Kuchar: DK $8200 FD $10600

Charl Schwartzel: DK $7500 FD $9800

My Cash and GPP core plays are pretty similar, and mostly just because those are the guys I feel most comfortable with this week and with the pricing you can fit them in both.  I like Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth this week as always (I think Jordan’s starting to figure it out, he could win this week, but I’m hitching my horse to Stenson in GPP’s) and if you can cram them in with some of those lower end value GPP guys that’s never a bad play either.

DFS Golf Slate Thoughts: 

I’m a big proponent of the casual player playing mostly cash lineups in DFS Golf, specifically single entry double ups. Your odds of cashing are obviously much better in a double up than a GPP. My general rule of thumb is for every entry into a GPP you play an entry of a similar amount in a double up. This is a great cash management strategy. If you do this you can take some shots in a GPP and play some long shots which is what you need to do to have a crack at the top prize. Conservative lineups in Cash (double ups) and go a little crazy in a GPP but make sure you have at least one or two guys who you think can win the whole thing because you need the winner to win big.

DFS Golf – GPP Contests to Target: 

FanDuel:

$7 entry $3500 PGA Chipper Single Entry

$3 entry $5K PGA Putter Single Entry

DraftKings:

$12 entry $40K PGA Albatross Single Entry

$3 entry $225k Birdie 20 Entry Max

Notice anything? Stay away from the 150 entry contests, you are at a huge disadvantage throwing a single dart into that pool. If you can stick to single entry contests you have a much better shot of seeing green screens come Sunday evening!

Next: FanDuel and FantasyDraft NBA Picks and Pivots

Good luck this week and be sure to shoot me any questions you may have on Twitter @dfsupnorth. Here’s to hoping you have a great week with lots of green screens!