The Mess in the West: Los Angeles Clippers

A few weeks ago, we used this space to begin an examination of what I referred to at the time as the most interesting group of teams in the league. At the time, there were five Western Conference teams separated in the standings by a total of three games, and that group of teams was all at least three games behind the fourth-place Timberwolves and four games ahead of the 10th-place Jazz. The plan was to dig into what each of the five teams does and does not do well over the course of a couple weeks during the lead-up to the trade deadline.

After the first two installments on the Thunder (link) and Nuggets (link), however, the league decided to blow those plans to smithereens. The Pelicans were the next team up, but DeMarcus Cousins tore his Achilles, so it seemed impossible to write about what the team does and does not do well, given that it was about to dramatically change for the rest of the year. The Clippers were up after that, but then they went and traded Blake Griffin to the Pistons. Then Kristaps Porzingis tore his ACL, then we had the trade deadline, and then we had the All-Star break. So we pushed things back.

We started things up again by digging into the Blazers (link) and Jazz (link), and since then things have become even more jumped. The eight teams currently occupying the third through 10th seeds in the West are now separated by a total of four games.All of them are at least 11.5 games back of the Warriors and at least 5.5 games ahead of the 11th-seeded Lakers. And the occupants of the 8, 9, and 10-seeds are, as of this writing, being determined by various tiebreakers.

It seems entirely reasonable to predict any one of these teams will make or miss the playoffs. Today, though, we’re going to dig into the team that surprisingly did not fall out of the race after trading its franchise player, largely because the expected fire-sale people thought was coming after the Blake Griffin trade never actually happened. Let’s examine the state of the Los Angeles Clippers.

While the Pistons have stumbled after an initial post-Griffin trade bump (they’re lost 10 of their last 12 games following a five-game winning streak that started immediately after the trade), the Clippers have seemingly taken a step forward in Griffin’s. The Clips were 25-24 at the time of the trade and are 9-5 since. Their numbers have improved almost across the board, and their pace-adjusted point differential backs up the better record.

Lou Williams has continued to solidify the Sixth Man of the Year Award he should take home with ease. Tobias Harris has stepped into Griffin’s shoes and performed at an All-Star level, averaging nearly 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists per game with 48-39-80 shooting splits. Montrezl Harrell has been terrific off the bench. Milos Teodosic hasn’t missed in weeks. Boban Marjanovic won a game by himself. Tyrone Wallace made strong contributions as a starter before the time on his two-way deal ran out. (Are you guys gonna just sign him for the rest of the year anytime soon, Clips?) Danilo Gallinari looked like Danilo Gallinari again for a while, before he — of course — got injured again. I’m pretty sure DeAndre Jordan has grabbed every single available rebound when he’s been on the floor. (He’s averaging 16 boards in 31 minutes a night since the Griffin deal.)

And again, the wins have been there. LA’s 9-5 push has only bumped them from ninth place in the West to eighth, but they’re far closer to the rest of the pack than they were before.

Still, it seems as least somewhat fair to wonder how much of this is for real and how much is simply a result of one of the softest patches of schedule the Clippers will face all season. LA’s nine wins during this run have come against the Bulls, Mavericks, Pistons, Nets, Celtics, Suns, Nuggets, Knicks, and Nets again. Those teams (including the Nets twice) have a combined record of 234-351, which is basically the equivalent of a 33-win season. Only two of the nine wins came against teams that are currently over .500.

Meanwhile, all five of the Clippers’ losses have come against playoff squads, four of them from the Western Conference: they’ve lost to the Blazers, 76ers, Warriors, Rockets, and Pelicans. That means they’ve gone just 1-3 in games against the teams with whom they’re jostling for playoff position, 0-2 against the two top teams in the West, and 1-1 against East playoff squads.

Basically, the Clippers have fattened up on the dregs of the NBA at a very opportune time. Even while doing so, they’ve only managed to move up half a game in the standings. They were a half-game out of eighth places prior to the Griffin trade, and now they’re in a de facto tie for eighth with two other teams.

Things are about to get considerably more difficult. The Clippers have 19 games left on their schedule, against a slate of opponents with a record of 666-565. That’s a 0.541 winning percentage — the equivalent of a 45-win season. Thirteen of the 19 games are against current playoff teams; plus, two of them are against the Jazz and Nuggets, and another is against the suddenly-respectable Lakers. The only gimmes left are next week’s clashes with the Magic and Bulls, and a late March game against the Suns. The Clips also have both a three-game road trip and a four-game road trip left, and those two swings come as part of a stretch of schedule where they play nine of 11 games away from home.

With Gallinari, Avery Bradley, and Jawun Evans injured, Wallace in contract limbo, and Wes Johnson still reeling and possibly in rictus after being crossed to death by James Harden, a tough schedule upcoming would seem like a lot to overcome; but the Clippers also aren’t at all helped out by their tiebreaker situation. They currently have control of just a single tiebreaker against the other seven teams with whom they’re fighting for playoff position. They’re 2-0 against the Nuggets this season. Every other tiebreaker is either up for grabs (Blazers; and sort of the Pelicans and Jazz) or already decided against them (Spurs, Timberwolves, Thunder).

Next: What's important for Aaron Gordon?

The good news is the Clippers play each of those seven teams at least once the rest of the way. The bad news is they play each of those seven teams at least once the rest of the way, those teams are all good, and the Clippers have shown limited ability to beat them.

They’re just 5-12 against this group of teams this season. The tightness of the standings says enough to tell us the Clippers shouldn’t necessarily feel “safe” about their current playoff positioning, but this is outright worrisome. Banking wins against teams they were “supposed to” beat over the last few weeks was a good way to ensure they stayed in the playoff mix for the stretch run. Now comes the hard part.