DraftKings NBA Picks March 17: Harden is worth a look against Pelicans
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks March 17: Harden is worth a look against Pelicans
We have a monster ten game Saturday for St. Patrick’s Day in the NBA. So wear a Celtics jersey (even though they aren’t playing….who made this schedule, anyway?), grab a green beer or ten, and take in some of the hardwood action tonight!
We have a lot of good options, and a couple of great ones. There is enough value on this slate to cram a couple of stars in. Is that the right approach? Let’s take a look!
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The money line was way down a bit to 270.75 DraftKings points. Robert Covington stopped one lineup, but the late addition of Quinn Cook placed me despite a subpar night from Westbrook.
The winning lineup was down a couple of points to 363.75. He built around Embiid and got huge value from Corey Brewer, Cook, and RHJ.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Kemba Walker ($8,400): Walker continues to put up really good numbers against everyone but Phoenix. Someone needs to explain that one to me. At any rate, the hot streak of Batum has only served to help Walk, not hurt him. What Walker is losing in points (not much) he makes up for with assists. This is a great matchup against the Knicks tonight. I trust Walker more than Lillard against a Detroit team that has defended the point well lately.
Chris Paul ($7,900): I’m not really sure that I trust Paul’s sore knee, but he has pushed the Pelicans around this year. In two games against New Orleans, Paul has 106.5 DraftKings points. that puts him at nearly 7x value if he can pull it off again tonight. Of course, the caveat is that Paul has only hit value, even at this price, in three of the last 11 games.
Honorable Mention:
Tyreke Evans ($7,500): Evans came back strong on Thursday with 49.75 DraftKings points against the Bulls. Yeah, it’s the Bulls, but this is still something to get excited about. The injury dropped Evans’ price by quite a bit. Evans is also still playing the point, a position that Denver doesn’t defend well. There is upside here tonight.
Dejounte Murray ($6,500): I don’t really trust Jamal Murray with Evans defending him, so it seems prudent to drop down to the other Murray. The Timberwolves don’t defend the point well, so we could see somewhere close to Murray’s 42.5 DraftKings point explosion on Thursday.
Dark Horses:
Rajon Rondo ($5,900): The Pelicans seem to have finally realized that their playoff hopes are directly tied to Rondo running the offense. Rondo has 59.75 DraftKings points in two games against Houston so far this year, which is right in line with 5x value. Rondo has the ability to dish out 20 assists on any given night, which makes him a popular GPP target.
Cameron Payne ($4,500): With the Bulls moving Jerian Grant out of the rotation, it should fall on Payne to start with Kris Dunn out with a sprained toe. Payne should be a terrific bargain at this price. 7x value is not out of the question considering Payne has at least 20 DraftKings points off the bench in each of the last four games and five of the last six.
My pick: Walker(PG), Murray(UTIL), Payne(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,200): Harden has 118.5 DraftKings points in just 69 minutes against the Pelicans this year. They can’t guard Harden. Few teams can, but the Pelicans are worse than most on the perimeter. Both Paul and Harden can have big games against the Pelicans. It has happened earlier in the season. Given a choice between the two, I’m taking Harden. The upside is much higher.
Jrue Holiday ($8,300): I trust Jrue a whole lot more than Beal against the Pacers. First off, Jrue has averaged 49.8 DraftKings points per game over the last three games. He has averaged 49.9 per game in the two games against Houston this year. Holiday looks primed for another game in the high 40’s. Dollar for dollar, Jrue may even be a better play than Harden.
Honorable Mention:
Nicolas Batum ($8,100): Batum was mostly a non factor against the Knicks earlier this year, but Batum has been on fire lately. Batum has 160.25 DraftKings points over the last three games. The Knicks are not a very good defensive team. This looks like a place for Batum to feast once again.
D’Angelo Russell ($7,000): Russell is still in that delightful little place of limbo where his price still has not caught up to his recent performance. Russell has at least 6x value in four of the last six games. Dallas is a decent defensive team, but I still think Russell hits 5x value without much of an issue.
Will Barton ($6,200): This is operating under the assumption that Gary Harris does not play. Harris tweaked his knee in the fourth quarter on Thursday. The only thing we know is that the MRI was not clean, so it appears likely that Barton will get the start at SG tonight. If he does, this is a great spot for Barton. Memphis is weak against the off guard.
Dark Horses:
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700): The volume of shots is still there for Hardaway, and so are the minutes. That makes Hardaway a strong consideration for GPP formats nearly every game. He is one of the few scorers that the Knicks have. Hardaway put up a solid 28.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Charlotte. That puts him at 5x value with solid upside.
Denzel Valentine ($5,200): Valentine is still coming off the bench, but that could change if Zach LaVine is held out. It’s knee soreness, so that alone is cause for concern. I’m thinking the Bulls will hold out LaVine, which means Valentine should see about 8-10 more minutes tonight over his current 18-20. that makes him a strong value play.
Nick Young ($4,500): Curry and Klay are still out. That means Young is starting. Against Phoenix. Expect high ownership here, but Young is a tough fade tonight considering the price, opponent, and volume of shots he will get.
My pick: Harden(SG), Barton(F)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($11,900): James is in the midst of a big run of great performances right now, but he is a fade for me tonight. Yes, I know that he has averaged 56.4 DraftKings points per game against the Bulls this year, but the Bulls are a little beat up and a lot tanking. The Cavs are going to need to rest His Highness whenever they can down the stretch. This looks like a great place to do that since this game should be in hand early. I expect to see LeBron still play around 28-30 minutes, but he needs 59 DraftKings points for 5x value. That’s a tall order in limited minutes.
Harrison Barnes ($6,600): Barnes picked up 39.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Nets. Barnes is a strong play when the matchup is right. He put up 40.5 DraftKings points on the first half of the NYC doubleheader. He should be able to put up similar numbers in the back end.
Honorable Mention:
Joe Ingles ($6,300): Ingles doesn’t put up big numbers, so there isn’t a ton of upside here. However, with Hood out of town, Ingles has been a constant 4.5-5.5x value. That makes him a strong play in cash games. Ingles lacks the upside that most GPP players covet, but this is a decent enough matchup with the Kings to consider him.
Michael Beasley ($6,200): Tell me again why Lance Thomas is starting? The Knicks need offense, and Beastley has been instant offense. We have seen Beasley hit 50 a few times this season, but his floor is also dangerously low. We should know whether he is starting or not by lock time. If Beasley doesn’t start, he isn’t really worth the risk.
Nemanja Bjelica ($6,000): Bjelica has grown more comfortable in the offense, and he is playing an astronomical amount of minutes. Bjelica has 127.75 DraftKings points over the last three games. Two of those teams are in the top half of the NBA in defense. This is a tougher matchup against the Spurs, but I find it hard to ignore Bjelica’s production of late.
Dark Horses:
Wilson Chandler ($5,500): Chandler had a truly miserable night on Wednesday, going scoreless from the field. The silver lining is that he still played 35 minutes, and still picked up 19.5 DraftKings points despite a goose egg in the points column. That means Chandler still has a high floor. Chandler usually wont go scoreless, so he is still a solid bargain play tonight.
Andre Iguodala ($4,700): Iggy just hit the minutes windfall with Kevin Durant being ruled out for two weeks. That leaves the Warriors without Curry, Klay, and Durant for the near future. There is a ton of value for Golden State now. Iguodala should see as many minutes as he can handle, and should be leaned upon for some offensive support alongside Young.
Jeff Green ($4,600): Green has filled in nicely for Larry Nance over the last two games. He will get another chance tonight as Nance has already been ruled out. Green has 57.75 DraftKings points over the two games, which makes him an easy 6x value.
My pick: Iguodala(SF), Green(PF)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($11,500): Stats be damned, but Brow put up 59.25 DraftKings points on Houston in his only game against them this season. Houston is solid up front, but Davis has performed against just about everyone with Boogie out. He and Jrue are the offense. Both are worth using on any given night right now.
Draymond Green ($8,800): His sizeable price jump makes me nervous because even though the Warriors are missing about 80% of their offense, it isn’t Green that picks up the bulk of it. Those duties fall to Young, Iggy, Zaza, Looney, and Quinn Cook (who is a good value play as well). Green may see a few more opportunities on offense, but he is still in there primarily to do his usual dirty work. Green is an acceptable fade at this price.
Honorable Mention:
Blake Griffin ($8,500): Griffin dominated one of his old Western Conference foes in Denver on Wednesday. He should give the Blazers the same treatment. Portland couldn’t really handle him in the first meeting. Come to think of it, Portland really doesn’t have the tools to handle either Griffin or Drummond. It could be a big night for the Detroit bigs.
Bobby Portis ($7,200): Portis will still see a ton of minutes with Lauri Markkanen out. It is much easier for Vonleh to hit value, but he doesn’t have near the upside of Portis. Cleveland is still relatively weak on the interior, especially with Love and Tristan Thompson still out. Portis is likely worth the price hike tonight.
Dark Horses:
Markieff Morris ($5,800): Only Miami has held Kieff under 33 DraftKings points in the last five games. He has found a place in the offense that needs scoring to compensate for John Wall. Morris does that at a very reasonable price. Morris has averaged 26.6 DraftKings points in two games against the Pacers this year, but he only played 28 minutes per game. Since he is playing over 30 now, there is good potential here.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5,700): He’s back! RHJ has topped 45 DraftKings points twice in the last four games, including last night against the Sixers. Dallas is still a very weak team up front. The rebounding ability of RHJ and his uptick in scoring lately make Hollis-Jefferson a very good value play.
Noah Vonleh ($4,200): Vonleh has been a strong value pick with Markkanen out, but he is questionable for tonight with an undisclosed injury. I’ll translate: We, the Chicago Bulls, accidentally won on Thursday night. In order to not jeopardize our lottery status, we are holding out, but not limited to, Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, and possibly Noah Vonleh. This is tanking at it’s finest. That is not a good thing.
My pick: N/A
Center:
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500): Towns should be convicted of elderly abuse for what he has done to Pau Gasol this season. The Spurs handle most bigs with relative ease, but Towns has 98.75 DraftKings points against them in two games this season. Towns is also riding a streak of back to back 58+ DraftKings points games. Good luck, Pau!
Rudy Gobert ($8,700): Gobert has been hot lately, putting up at least 42 DraftKings points in six of the last seven games. The only team that held him under that was Memphis, who boasts one of the best defensive centers in the league. The Kings aren’t bad up front, but Gobert put up 47 DraftKings points in his only game against them so far this year. Given how well he has been playing, Gobert is a strong pick again tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Andre Drummond ($8,600): Drummond abused the Blazers for 53.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Of course, Blake wasn’t around then. I mostly expect these two to cannibalize each other, but Portland’s frontcourt is bad enough for both Blake and Drummond to hit value tonight. I do think that each caps the other’s upside though.
Marc Gasol ($7,800): The Grizz are lottery hunting too, so this is a risky pick. They are tanking even better than the Bulls right now. The principle of caveat emptor applies here. This is a really good matchup for Gasol, but Memphis definitely doesn’t want to win after successfully losing to the Bulls twice in the last five games. Gasol could be huge, or he could play 20 minutes.
Dark Horses:
Dwight Powell ($5,300): It’s a center against the Nets. Do I really need another reason?
Nerlens Noel ($3,800): Noel had the best line of the season so far last night with six points, six rebounds, and five blocks. Noel seems to be outplaying all other Dallas centers. He isn’t much of an offensive threat, but the Nets have made fringe starters look like Hakeem Olajuwon this year. There is definitely sleeper value here.
My pick: Noel(C)
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