Auto Club 400 preview: Harvick goes for 4 straight in his home state

Kevin Harvick will have to hold off a partially inverted field to claim his fourth straight win in the Auto Club 400 at Fontana.

Here’s an undeniable fact about the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series headed into the Auto Club 400 at Fontana: No one has won a non-restrictor plate race yet but Kevin Harvick.

The opposing fact that should give the rest of the garage some relief is that it’s extremely difficult to win four straight Cup Series races as Harvick is attempting to do in California. Only eight drivers have done it in NASCAR’s modern era, none in the last 11 years.

But those are just stats. Someone has to actually beat Harvick on the track to stop him, and so far, that’s proven extremely difficult. He’ll start from the 10th position in his Stewart-Haas Racing Ford on Sunday, which means he’ll have some work to do to get to the front, but considering how fast he’s been in practice, he just might be able to do it.

It’ll be all the more impressive if he does considering the front row is occupied by two of the drivers who look most ready to snatch a victory whenever Harvick has a bad day. Defending Cup Series champion Martin Truex Jr. is on the pole for the second straight week, while Kyle Busch starts in P2 and would absolutely love to make Harvick have to chase him down instead of vice versa. Kyle Larson, winner of this very race last year, is right behind them starting third.

Behind them, there could be chaos in Stage 1. Because 13 cars failed to make it through technical inspection to attempt qualifying laps — including all four Hendrick Motorsports cars — there are some really stout cars starting 25th or worse and some unusual suspects as high as the top 20 (sorry, Gray Gaulding). That could mean lots of cars quickly headed in opposite directions when the green flag drops.

Happily, Auto Club Speedway is one of the few NASCAR tracks that allows that kind of rapid change in running order without guaranteeing multi-car wrecks. Not only is the track wide enough to run three and even four wide, it’s even possible to run all the way down on the apron and make it work for a bit.

We’ll know a lot more about whether Harvick once again has the best car by the end of Stage 1, but anything other than him contending for another win would have to count as a major upset at the moment.

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Forecast

It’s not going to be perfect weather for a race in California, but it should be pleasant enough. Weather Channel is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 60s, which means a little more grip than if it was hotter. More importantly, light winds and steady temps should keep crew chiefs from having to make changes strictly based on weather conditions as the race gets into the late stages.

Three things to watch

• Will there be passing everywhere but for the lead? The XFINITY Series race featured lots of great battles within the top 10 and further back, the kind of racing we haven’t necessarily seen the last few weeks. That didn’t extend to duels for the lead, however, as Joey Logano was able to set sail on the field whenever he could get out front in clean air. Here’s hoping that won’t be the case in the Auto Club 400, but it’s worth keeping in mind — and could make Harvick’s drive for four a little more difficult, given that he’s starting in Row 5.
• Will the young guns stay patient? Among the drivers starting much further back than usual because of the qualifying debacle are Chase Elliott, Daniel Suarez and William Byron. They should have the speed to get into the top 15 or higher before too long, but they will need to be wary of cars starting ahead of them that aren’t as fast and others that might be moving up at the same time they are. That could make for an interesting test of their patience and savvy, though as noted above, Auto Club Speedway is wide enough to forgive some mistakes.
• How much will tires play a part in the outcome? The only equalizer on Saturday was tires, as even four extra green flag laps made Logano look a little more mortal. There’s always tire falloff at California but it seemed pretty severe in the XFINITY Series race, and that should mean less crew chiefs willing to gamble for track position than at some other places.

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Prediction

Harvick wins and has to try to figure out what he can say that he hasn’t already said in Victory Lane interviews the last three weeks. Just kidding … we think.

There are quite a few signs pointing toward Harvick pulling off the rare quad, but there are a few suggesting that this might be the week someone else rises up. Harvicck’s Phoenix victory was the toughest of the three, relatively speaking, and that was at a track where he’s dominated. He’s been good in his home state over the years as well, but that hasn’t meant tons of wins.

With that in mind, we’re calling for Harvick to be very much in the mix but ultimately having to “settle” for a top-5 finish. Instead, look for Kyle Busch to find that extra something he hasn’t quite managed so far and become the third Cup Series driver in 2018 to all but lock up a playoff spot.

It’s tough to make a true dark horse pick when it looks like the Auto Club 400 should be settled among the cars that have proven their strength already this season, but being in the midst of a lengthy winless drought qualifies you as a dark horse in our book as well. So we’ll give a nod to Clint Bowyer, who hasn’t found the winners circle in quite some time, but has found California to his liking in the past and has the same SHR equipment that Harvick does. If something happens to one or two of the favorites, it’s not impossible to envision him sneaking by for a win.