DFS Golf: WGC Match Play

DFS Golf: World Golf Championships – Match Play

I know this is going to be hard to believe, but Draftkings listened to their users!!! After years of asking for it we finally have a slate for the WGC-Match play with a whole new set of scoring rules and it should make a fun event even more interesting! We will get to how it’s all going to work in a bit after we breakdown last week’s plays.

Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Breakdown: 

Uh oh, Rory learned how to putt. After a lesson with short game guru and Golf Channel Analyst Brad Faxon on Monday and switching back to an old blade putter he’s used in the past, Rory putted lights out all week and particularly on the last 9 holes. He gained a ridiculous 10 strokes on the greens, seemingly making everything he looked at Sunday. Sunday wasn’t even his best day putting though, in Round 2 he gained over 3 strokes on the green. Over his last twenty events outside of this past week he’s gained -.2 strokes on the green. Is this an anomaly or does Rory have it figured out? I don’t think he can gain 10 strokes on the green every week but it sure was a lot of fun to watch on Sunday.

Our GPP Core last week all made the cut and led to a lot of my lineups having 6/6, but outside of Rory McIlroy, none really contended. In my player pool only Ben Martin didn’t make the cut, as he continues to be the drug I can’t quit. Sunday killed a lot of lineups with Bubba Watson, shooting +7, and Hudson Swafford matching that total. Swaff and Adam Scott, both struck the ball beautifully and gave it all away on the greens. Swafford lost an absolutely ridiculous -7.9 strokes on the green and Scott lost -.7. Taking them both out of contention. Our Cash core all made the cut as well and should have got you in money for a double up.

Of our trending down plays last week, Scott Piercy, made a charge on Friday to make the cut but settled back to missing it at over 15% ownership. I still think the Tiger fade was the right play in GPP’s but he was a strong option in cash. Kevin Streelman, made a birdie on his 36th hole to make the cut and played great on the weekend.

There is a TON of DFS Golf strategy involved in creating a lineup for this week’s WGC Matchplay at Austin Country Club, so let’s get to the course breakdown and what the scoring structure is for this week.

DFS Golf: WGC-Matchplay

Course Breakdown: 

The WGC-Matchplay returns to Austin Country Club in Austin, Texas for the second straight year and hopefully finds its home here for years to come as the course sets up great for a Match Play event. Playing at 7,108 yards, Austin County Club is a Pete Dye designed course with a ton of risk reward holes and even though the scorecard says 7,108 it often plays much shorter due to the fast fairways and those Texas winds.

All of the Par 3’s on the scorecard are in the 150-200 yard range, so we won’t see guys playing a lot of long irons into par 3’s like we did last week at Bay Hill. All four par 3’s are among the 8 easiest holes on the course.The Par 4’s range from the drive-able 317 yard #4 to the 490 yard 18th. There are 10 on the course and 6 play as part of the 9 hardest holes on the course while 4 are among the easiest. Many of the holes will have an approach of less than 120 yards, and with undulating firm greens, a strong wedge game will be essential. The four Par 5’s can all be reached in two, especially by the big hitters, but like any Pete Dye course with undulating greens, tightened fairways by the green and protection bunkers, its often difficult to get on in two, and sometimes the better approach is to lay up. Last year, Bill Haas, made the semifinals and he is notoriously short off the tee but was able to lay up on these par 5’s and attack them with wedges.

Scoring Breakdown 

Due to this being a brand new event for DFS Golf Draftkings, there is a new scoring system in place. Taking the place of birdies and bogeys are holes won and lost.

Holes Won = 3 pts

Holes Halved = .75 points

Holes Lost = -.75 points

Holes not played = +1.6 points (match winner gets bonus points for finishing opponent off early.)

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Matches Won = +5 points

Matched Halved = +2 points

Win 3 straight holes = +5 point bonus

Do not lose a hole in the match = +7.5 points

The scoring is pretty similar to a normal event but there is a lot of bonus points that are going to be awarded at the end of each match. It’s hard to imagine that the winner of the tournament won’t have the highest amount of DFS Golf DK points on the week, but its possible that the runner up does, if he blows out his opponents throughout the tournament.

With players who reach the semifinals playing 7 matches total for the tournament, anyone who has all 4 in their lineup will be on their way to a big cash for the week. Most weeks you are attempting to pick 6 guys who make the cut and almost 50% of the field makes the cut. This week you are trying to pick 6 guys to make it out of their pod when only 27% of the players will. It’s going to be MUCH harder to create a solid lineup this week, and its very possible that we’ll see more lineups with 0 players moving on to the ‘Sweet Sixteen’ than teams with 6 of 6 players moving on. DFS Golf has a massive amount of variance to begin with, throw in match play and it gets even crazier. For this reason, I will be playing less volume this week and will be avoiding cash games entirely. I’ll throw some DFS Golf GPP darts and hope for a big win, this is not a week to try to increase your bankroll.

Now, lets breakdown the player tiers and who I think has the best chance of playing well this week.

DFS Golf: WGC Pod Breakdown

The WGC Mach Play used to be a 64 team single elimination tournament, similar to the NCAA Basketball, and in an attempt to create more buzz they switched over to a group play format a few years ago. Players are placed into 16 player tiers based on their World Golf Ranking. The first tier, Tier 1, or the top 16 players in OWGR in this event is set and each player will have their own pod. Players in Tiers. 2, 3, and 4 will then be randomly drawn to one of the 16 players in Tier 1’s pod. At the end, each pod will have four players, one from each tier.

Here are the Tiers (players in order of OWGR)

Credit to @htcdfs for compiling this!

While one would think you should load up on guys in Tier 1, only 50% of them made it to the Sweet Sixteen knockout stage last year. And a player from Tier 4 made it all the way to the final four last year. Your best bet is to pick 2-3 of the guys you think have a shot to win and then fill out the rest of your roster with players from the rest of the tiers. One issue with players from Tier 1 is that unless their heart is in it, they often come, collect a paycheck, and leave, oftentimes not even finishing the tournament (see Jason Day and Gary Woodland last year). Its a huge grind to play 7 rounds, especially 2 weeks before the Master’s, and if you lose your first match you are almost guaranteed to not make it out of the group stage. It’s difficult to predict which golfers will WD but it will create a huge advantage for the other players (and their DK owners) in their pod as they gain an automatic 32 DK points because of it.

Tier 1: 

At first look there is the obviously players to like in Tier 1. Dustin Johnson ($11,800), Rory McIlroy ($10,000), and Jon Rahm ($10,800) and they all come with the price tag they deserve. All three of them can overpower the course, are great with wedges, and are not afraid to be aggressive. If you can’t read Spanish, this tweet shows that Rahm shot a 59 in Texas on Saturday getting ready for the tournament. His pal Codes didn’t fair so well and ended up with a 96. Regardless, Rahmbo appears to be hot right now.

https://twitter.com/Tengolf/status/975759098628247554

Outside of these three I think you can make a case for Phil Mickelson ($9,300), played well here last year and has the most match play experience of anyone in the field. Paul Casey ($8,800) is massively underpriced and a great fit here, but he was a late addition as he had to head back to England for a funeral last week and skip the Arnold Palmer, so you have to question what his motivation will be to play in an event he was originally planning on missing. I love Pat Perez ($8,400) this week, he benefits by some of the WD’s of getting in that top tier of players and depending on the draw will be someone I target.

Tier 2: 

I honestly don’t love this tier, and will most likely find my way to roster a player or two, but they won’t be a part of my core. Louis Oosthuizen ($8000)  has the most experience in this tier with a lifetime match play record of 18-10-2 and makes for an interesting play as he rates out well in my model this week, 5th. Lost to Jason Day in the championship here in 2016 as well. He’s got a great approach game and has been gaining strokes off the tee recently. Missed the cut last week and while the trend is you have to be playing well to win here, I have a sneaky suspicion Louis will have a great week, depending on where he is drawn.

Others I will be taking a shot on in this tier are Xander Schaufelle ($7400) and Patrick Cantlay ($7400). Both don’t have enough rounds in on similar courses to rate well in my model, but the 10000 foot view of both of their games means they should fit well here. They both can grind which is a huge benefit in Match Play as sometimes you just have to make a par to halve a hole and move on. Again, all is dependent on where they get drawn for a pod.

Tier 3: 

Probably my favorite tier and I really wouldn’t be surprised if the winner came out of this group. The trend over the last few years is that you need to be a Top 10 player in the world to win this tournament, but guys from the bottom half have competed here in recent years making big runs like Soren Kjeldsen and Hideto Tanihara here last year. Kevin Chappell ($7500) will be part of my core, he’s priced way to low and his odds to win of 66-1 are similar to many of the guys in the 2nd tier and better than some. He rates 10th in in my model. If you trust the narrative that where Jason Day plays well Chappy does too, then this is another course that should fit his eye. Outside of Bubba Watson, this tier doesn’t have a ton of Match Play experience. Top ranked players in my model are: Kyle Stanley ($6,800) 4th, and  Adam Hadwin ($7300) 16th who I will be locking in and loading depending on draw as well.

Tier 4: 

Every year it seems, someone from this tier makes a run. Kevin Na ($6,600) is ranked 9th in my model and allows you to stack some of the top guys. If he can avoid a DJ or Rory in his pod he makes an intriguing play. There’s not a lot of golfers who are striking the ball as well as Luke List ($7300) right now and if his putter just behaves a little he should contend here. He has no match play experience, but maybe thats a good thing? Zach Johnson ($6,800) is always in play and has a ridiculously low price tag for a guy with a ton of match play experience (19-17-1) and while bombers have won here the last two years, we’ve already shown that shorter hitters can contend. ZJ’s wedge game has struggled a little this year but if he gets it going he will be in great shape. Fair to point out that we are back in Texas where Russell Henley ($7,100) dominates. I don’t know how he’s priced higher than ZJ this week but might be worth a flyer.

DFS Golf: WGC Match Play

So much of your roster construction is going to have to be based on what draw players get, but hopefully this provided you with a bit of insight if you want to start building before the pods are drawn tonight on Golf Channel. With so much variance this week, I’ll be avoiding cash games entirely and focusing on Single Entry GPP’s. Draftkings has given us some big prize pools which I appreciate it, but you are at a huge disadvantage if you only throw a single lineup into one where sharks can enter 150.

Next: DFS Gold - Match Play Group by Group Breakdown

Be on the look out for an article tomorrow breaking down roster construction and where I think you should make a stand this week! Follow along tonight on Twitter @dfsupnorth to get my immediate reaction to the draw!