NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday March 19
Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Sunday’s NBA DFS slate was an ugly one and although the top two performers on the night were no surprise, it was really the rest of your roster where the challenge arose. James Harden (63) and Anthony Davis (57) were the top two scorers on the night with Jeff Teague (52) rounding out the top three with one of the best performances of the night against CP3 and the Rockets. Really if you step back and look at the slate, fading the Celtics who scored only 89 and honestly fading the entire Pelicans/Celtics game besides AD would have worked out as the two later games were really were the high scoring and close game environments ended up being.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
As with any NBA DFS slate down the stretch of the season, it all starts with injuries and on an eight game slate like we have on Monday night, we have a ton that will wreak havoc on this slate.
Injury report for tomorrow night's game at San Antonio: pic.twitter.com/xKSCvf2c43
— Warriors PR (@WarriorsPR) March 19, 2018
Let’s start with the messiest injury scenario in the NBA right now as Golden State will once again be without the Big Three and Omri (sounds like an awful band name) which means another night of Draymond Green, Nick Young and Quinn Cook leading the show.
Over the last two games the backcourt duo of Young ($9.7K) and Cook ($8.6K) have been a popular pairing against the Kings and Suns and it has been Cook with back to back 40+ point fantasy games leading the way as an elite value option. Tonight however the decision to simply lock them in is much more difficult as Golden State will get a massive pace decrease against the Spurs and are projected to score a whopping 16 points lower than their season average.
The Spurs right now sit in the #7 spot in the West, just two games from missing the playoffs entirely and with a wounded Warriors squad headed into their building, it is kind of incredible to think they are only favored by 6.5 points. Seriously, think about that for a second – the Spurs at home against a team with no Steph, no KD and no Klay is only a 6 point dog? Says a lot about the state of San Antonio basketball these days.
As much as I have been all in on the Warriors value the last two games, this feels like the match-up to jump off tonight as the Warriors are playing at a materially slower pace these last two games and now have to take on a Spurs team that is ranked 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating over the last five games.
Bulls flew to NY. LaVine, Dunn and Markkanen didn’t. Vonleh did but is questionable.
— K.C. Johnson (@KCJHoop) March 18, 2018
On a night where we are going to need value, the Chicago Bulls should be a nice source against a brutal Knicks defense considering we already know that Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen are already out and Noah Vonleh is questionable. We saw last game Cameron Payne ($9K) stepped into the starting line-up and played 31 minutes, racking up 13 points, 10 assists and 32 fantasy points and makes for an elite value option on this slate. Christiano Felicio is an intriguing punt option as well after playing 30+ minutes against the Cavaliers and dropping a double-double with 28 fantasy points. If Vonleh sits again, all you need to do is look at the Bulls last box score to see how short the rotation was and on a night we need value, this could be a sneaky spot to get it!
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
As we head down the stretch in the NBA season, you are going to notice a trend here in Picks and Pivots as I am going to look at the NBA standings (really the only time of the year I do this) to understand where teams stand relative to the playoff race. If you can zero in on the “games that matter” and preferably ones that matter for both teams, you can set yourself up in a nice position in your roster builds.
Gary Harris has been ruled out for the next week and with the Denver Nuggets sitting in the #9 spot in the West, 1.5 games behind Minnesota this is the perfect marriage of targeting a team that now has usage and fantasy production available and a team that is in must win mode.
Last game against the Grizzlies with Harris sidelined, it was Will Barton ($11.9K) who stepped into the line-up for the Nuggets and we saw all five starters log 30 or more minutes. This is what you are getting if you build around Denver right now with any/all of their starting unit – consistent minutes in the 30+ range for a team that simply has to win each and every night.
With Harris off the court this season, it is not shocking to see Jamal Murray ($12.5K) gets a 4.4% usage bump and I love the idea of using both Murray and Barton here tonight in a must win game for Denver. This Denver-Miami game has the second lowest projected pace on the board but this is less about the game environment and more about what is at stake for both teams as the Nuggets sit on the outside looking in while Miami is in the #8 spot in the East and although they look safe for the playoffs, sitting 6.5 games ahead of the #9 Pistons, they are playing for seeding down the stretch.
These teams played back in November and it is interesting to note that both Nikola Jokic ($16.2K) and Paul Millsap ($11K) went for 50+ in that game and tonight the Heat will once again be without Hassan Whiteside which makes me wonder how in the world Miami is going to stop these two from getting whatever they want inside. While we are here – what in the world does Bam Adebayo have to do to get a price increase on FanDuel? Dude is a starting Center, has put up 22, 24 and 30 fantasy points in his last three games for an average of 25 FP which is over 7x value at this price point. If you are not using him at PF for only $3.6K on FanDuel you are out of your flipping mind!
On FantasyDraft, I think you can make the case for stacking the entire Nuggets starting five for the minutes security alone and I think the match-up with Miami and the pace decrease will keep the ownership lower than it should be. Players like Murray, Barton and Millsap all carry reasonable price tags and Jokic has the ability to the be top raw point scorer on this slate as evidenced by his 68 fantasy point triple double against the Pistons two games ago.
NBA DFS – Core Build:
The big news that dropped last night was that Nicolas Batum would be out tonight which means fire up Jeremy Lamb ($8.2K) chalk night!
Kemba Walker ($14.1K) may end up being a popular play at the PG position but I have some hesitation using him tonight in this spot for a few reasons. First, what do the Hornets have to play for at this point? Charlotte is in the #10 spot in the East right now, seven games behind the Heat for the last playoff spot with only 12 games to go. Secondly, it is worth noting that Walker has seen a 1.6% usage drop and a slight FP/M reduction with Batum off the court this year.
Batum missed 14 games earlier this season and outside of one massive game against the Magic where he put up 62 fantasy points, Walker was quite underwhelming with 40+ fantasy points in three games and under 40 fantasy points in 10 of the 14 games Batum missed. It is fair to wonder what the ceiling really is Kemba in this game tonight and at his price point I think a fade is warranted in tournaments.
Lamb meanwhile has averaged 29 fantasy points per game this year with Batum out which would put him at 3.4x value on FantasyDraft and over 6x on FanDuel where he is priced at $4.8K. The best place to attack the Sixers this season has been at the SG position where they rank 17th in DvP and 19th in Def-Eff and we saw Batum put up 35 and 45 fantasy points against this same Philly team twice in the past few weeks.
The Sixers meanwhile are locked into a playoff seeding battle at the #6 spot, only 1.5 games from jumping to the #3 seed and 2 games from falling down to the #8 spot. This game has the fastest projected pace on the slate, the Sixers have the highest implied team total (115) at the time of this writing and are expected to score 8 points more than their season average.
Joel Embiid ($16.9K) is coming off a three game stretch 31-32 minutes per night with 53+ fantasy points in each game and now will take on a Hornets team he went for 23/15 against earlier this month for 54 fantasy points. Ben Simmons ($14.9K) has been just as impressive in this stretch, putting up 43, 46 and 55 fantasy points in his last three outings and will take on a Hornets team he put up 47 fantasy points against last time they played.
The second tier plays on this slate like Jokic, Embiid/Simmons may get a bit over-looked with so much focus on the LeBron-Giannis battle in the first game of the night. It feels scary to consider a LeBron James ($22.1K) fade at this point with 70+ fantasy points in three straight games and an average of 60 FP/game in his last two meetings with but at $22K on FantasyDraft and $13.1K on FanDuel, you are going to have to ask yourself some really tough questions tonight. If you are playing LeBron you are likely running it back with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19.5K) who has put up 57, 57 and 65 fantasy points in three games against the Cavaliers this season.
Here is the problem – if you stack these two – you only have $9.7K/player remaining on FantasyDraft and $4.9K/player on FanDuel. Is it doable? Yes of course it is – but is there going to be enough value to make it work? Remember on FanDuel Jeremy Lamb, the best value play on the slate, is SF only so you cannot even use him in this LeBron/Giannis stack.
On FanDuel I think it may make sense to go more balanced but on FantasyDraft as an example you can plug in LeBron, Giannis and Lamb and still have over $10k/player for the last five spots which feels like a very realistic roster build.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: Kemba Walker ($7,800)
PG: Jamal Murray ($7,000)
SG: Will Barton ($6,600)
SG: Tony Snell ($3,600)
SF: Robert Covington ($6,000)
SF: Jeremy Lamb ($4,800)
PF: Ben Simmons ($9,700)
PF: Bam Adebayo ($3,600)
C: Joel Embiid ($10,900)
Slate Overview: The Cavaliers-Bucks game is the national T.V. game and with Giannis versus LeBron, my guess is people will look to force this duo in as a stack tonight which could leave the second tier stars like Embiid/Simmons under-owned. It is a scary idea to fade these two tonight but there is merit to building a bit more balanced with the Nuggets starters in a must win home game. Enjoy this slate tonight, it looks like a good one and we can finally attack an NBA DFS slate since it feels like we have been treading lightly the last few days!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests across FantasyDraft and FanDuel and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!