DraftKings NBA Picks March 20: Should we ride Harden again?

DraftKings NBA Picks March 20: Should we ride Harden again?

We only have six games tonight because DraftKings is electing to put the one early game (Toronto-Orlando) in a showdown tournament instead of adding it to the main slate. It wouldn’t be an issue if they just brought back late swap! Now we miss out on Lowry and DeRozan against one of the worst defenses in the league. There is still value out here. Let’s go find it!

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The money line was way back up to 292 DraftKings points last night. That was a lot of people without Tyreke Evans! Both of my lineups broke 300, so I was comfortably in the top 4000 with both. One capitalized on the Miami-Denver double overtime game. The other core of LeBron and Giannis survived an awful game by Jarell Martin thanks to James Johnson.

The winning lineup was up to 387 last night. He built around LeBron and a Miami-Jokic stack and got big value from Kevon Looney, Quinn Cook, Lamb, and Hield.

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Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($9,300): I’m usually not an advocate of fading Westbrook, but I am here. He didn’t even hit 45 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Boston. The absence of Irving should help some, but I still don’t see Westbrook hitting value against that defense. Lillard is a much better pick. Dame has 103.75 DraftKings points in two games against Houston this year. He came crashing back to earth against the Clippers on Sunday, ending a streak of six straight 40+ DraftKings point games. Lillard should get back on track against Houston tonight.

Chris Paul ($8,000): On paper, this is a bad matchup. However, Paul has 113.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Blazers this season. Harden did miss one of those games, but Paul still hit value in the other. Paul’s value is hard to peg with Harden around, so he always carries some sort of risk. It would appear to be worth the risk tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Lou Williams ($7,200): It’s going to be tough sledding for Rozier as well, so it looks like a better option to use LouWill instead. Williams has 121.25 DraftKings points in three games against Minnesota this year. Williams isn’t starting, but he still plays 32-38 minutes per game. The minutes are there, so the production should be against Minnesota as well.

Jeff Teague ($6,400): Teague’s offense has picked up a little with Butler out, but he is still only for use in good matchups. This is one of them. Teague has averaged 6x value in the three games against the Clippers this season. He may not have a huge game like he did on Saturday, but Teague could flirt with 40 DraftKings points tonight.

Rajon Rondo ($6,000): Rondo has 68.75 DraftKings points in two games against Dallas this year. The absence of Dennis Smith wont mean a whole lot. Smith isn’t a great defender anyway. There is a little bit of added upside there, but not enough to jump on Rondo if you weren’t going to use him anyway.

Dark Horses:

Yogi Ferrell ($5,300): The tanking Suns have destroyed Payton’s value, so we have to find value elsewhere. Ferrell looks like a great spot. He played well with Smith out earlier this year. The Pelicans are pretty awful against the point, so there is really good upside for Ferrell here tonight. Ferrell put up 38.25 on Brooklyn over the weekend. He could have an even better night tonight.

Ish Smith ($4,400): Smith is the point guard on a team that is trying to win against a team that is trying to lose. There is a lot of value to be had at this price. The Suns weren’t good when they were trying. They are even worse now.

My pick: Ferrell(PG). Teague(PG), Rondo(G), Ferrell(UTIL)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,200): This isn’t a great matchup on paper, but Harden torched the Blazers for 69.5 DraftKings points in his only game against them this season. Harden has back to back games of more than 60 DraftKings points. This could be the third with the way Beard is rolling right now.

Jrue Holiday ($8,200): Dallas is thin at guard tonight with Smith out and Barea likely out. That could mean a better than normal day for Holiday. Of course, normal for him since Boogie went down is a lot different that it was before the injury. Holiday still struggles against teams with good guard defenses, but this isn’t one of them. There is a lot of potential here tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Donovan Mitchell ($7,500): Mitchell has at least 5x value in three of the last four games. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the league defending the off guard. With Rubio manning the point, there will be plenty of opportunity for Mitchell here tonight. Holiday has more upside, but he is also more volatile. Mitchell has a higher floor if you are looking for more stability.

C.J. McCollum ($6,700): McCollum has nine straight games with more than 30 DraftKings points, which gives him a great starting point. He has 78.5 DraftKings points in two games against Houston this year. Lillard has the higher upside, but McCollum is definitely worth the play if you can’t afford Lillard.

Andrew Wiggins ($6,200): The Timberwolves have picked up the slack from Butler’s absence in many areas, not just relying on Wiggins to do it this time. That has left Wiggins without the huge upside he had when Butler was out the first time. Wiggins is still worth a look, but his ceiling isn’t nearly as high.

Dark Horses:

Corey Brewer ($4,200): Brewer is worth a look as a value play, even against Boston. His price has remained so low throughout his strong run that Brewer is worth a look no matter the matchup. Many will fade him here, but there is still value to be had.

Jamal Crawford ($3,800): Crawford followed up possibly his worst game of the year with one of his best against Houston on Sunday. His true value lies somewhere in between what he did against the Spurs and Rockets. Crawford doesn’t have huge upside, but he can allow you to afford a stud and still get you solid points for this price.

My pick: Crawford(SG); Holiday(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($7,600): This is not an ideal spot for George, but with Westbrook being locked down in the first meeting, George put up 43 DraftKings points in that game. Expect more of the same here tonight. Rozier isn’t the defender Irving is, but he is not much of a step down either. I expect Westbrook under 50 and George to flirt with 6x value. If you are using any of the Thunder, George and Adams are the two to target.

Josh Jackson ($6,300): Warren isn’t as effective at the four, and Booker is still struggling from the floor, so that has left Jackson to carry this offense at times lately. Jackson had a huge game against the depleted Warriors on Saturday. Detroit wont be as easy for him, but there is still potential here since Warren is likely going to miss this game with a sore knee that forced him from Saturday’s game.

Honorable Mention:

Joe Ingles ($6,100): Another game, another 30+ DraftKings point game for Ingles. That is seven straight for Ingles, who already has the Utah single season record for made three pointers in a season. He isn’t going to stop shooting, or making, threes, especially against the Hawks. Ingles is a strong play once again.

Nemanja Bjelica ($5,800): This is the first favorable matchup that Bjelica has had in over a week. You know what? He only missed value once in that span (against the Spurs). Bjelica is a strong play at this price range again tonight.

Dark Horses:

Jae Crowder ($4,600): Crowder is freed from the fantasy purgatory that was Cleveland. The Cavs didn’t use him as he needed to be. Utah has used Crowder as the man on the second unit. Even though he doesn’t start, Crowder still sees minutes in the high 20’s. There is good potential here against Atlanta if you are looking for a value play.

Maurice Harkless ($4,100): We have seen Harkless catch fire for brief periods on occasion throughout his brief career. He is in the midst of one of those stretches right now. Portland has increased his minutes to accommodate his hot streak, so Harkless is a very nice value play until he cools off. The caveat is that could happen at any time with no notice.

My pick: Ingles(SF), Jackson(G); Jackson(SF), Crowder(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,500): The Pelicans are in the midst of a brutal stretch of five games in seven days. Tonight is the start of three consecutive games, which is unprecedented in today’s NBA. Every game is important for New Orleans, so they need the Brow to carry this team. However, Dallas is weak up front and injured in the frontcourt. New Orleans will take any chance they can to save Davis in the brutal stretch, so he will rest if they get a comfortable lead. There is still value for Davis, but his ceiling isn’t as high as usual.

Blake Griffin ($8,500): Phoenix is awful. Griffin put up 49 DraftKings points on them in just 27 minutes as a member of the Clippers earlier this year. Griffin has been inconsistent in his time in the Motor City, but this looks like a situation for him to thrive. The Suns have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to power forwards this year. Blake beat up another Western Conference team on Sunday. He could do so again tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris ($7,400): Taj Gibson was acquired by Minnesota because he is a strong defender. However, Harris got the better of him in two meetings earlier this season. The paper says stay away, but Harris has 84.75 DraftKings points in two games against Gibson and Minnesota so far this year. There is decent upside for Harris at a depressed price and the possibility of low ownership tonight.

Dirk Nowitzki ($5,600): Dwight Powell has the higher upside, but he is wildly inconsistent. Powell may be okay for a GPP dart throw, but for those of you in cash games or building a solid lineup, Dirk is the better play.

Dark Horses:

Nikola Mirotic ($5,400): Mirotic had his best game in a while over the weekend. New Orleans is going to need him down the stretch. Here is a good time to ride Mirotic. He put up 37.75 DraftKings points in his only game against Dallas this season. I already mentioned the brutal stretch that New Orleans is in now. Mirotic should see a slight uptick in minutes over the short term as the Pelicans try to keep Davis fresh in this stretch.

Montrezl Harrell ($4,700): Harrell continues to be a force in the paint for the second unit of the Clippers. That caps his upside, but as we saw against Portland on Sunday, he is still capable of a huge game. That makes Harrell worth a shot in GPP formats, but he is not consistent enough for cash games right now.

My pick: Davis(PF), Mirotic(F); Mirotic(PF)

Center:

Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500): Jordan is an elite rebounder, but not a great defender. Towns has averaged 42.4 DraftKings points in 36 minutes per game in three games against the Clippers this season. That would put Towns a little under value, but he did that with Butler in the lineup. Towns has taken on a larger offensive role with Butler out, so he is going to be around 5x value tonight.

Andre Drummond ($9,400): On paper, this is an elite matchup for Drummond tonight. However, Drummond only picked up 35.25 DraftKings points in the first game against Phoenix because he played just 27 minutes. Another blowout could be in order tonight, so that makes Drummond, and Griffin for that matter, risky plays despite the great matchup.

Honorable Mention:

Rudy Gobert ($8,400): Gobert has at least 40 DraftKings points in eight of the last nine games. He is on a roll right now, and there could be more in store tonight. Derrick Favors is out, so we could see Gobert take on a larger role inside. However, there is blowout potential in this game, so Gobert may not get his normal compliment of minutes.

DeAndre Jordan ($7,800): Towns is an elite talent, but not an elite defender. Jordan has 83.75 DraftKings points in two games against Minnesota this season, and that was before he took on a larger role with Griffin gone. Jordan has at least 15 rebounds in every game since the All Star Break. That gives him a great floor, and the upside is very high with Griffin out of the picture.

Clint Capela ($6,600): Here we have a conundrum. Adams and Capela both look like really good plays tonight, but neither did well in their first meetings with tonight’s opponents. With Monroe now in Boston, they may have the tools to deal with Adams since he isn’t a really imposing figure. Portland still doesn’t have anyone to match up with Capela, but he only has 58.25 DraftKings points against Portland this year. Of course, he has only played 45 minutes. If Capela were guaranteed the minutes, I like him a lot. That may not be the case though.

Dark Horses:

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,300): Nurkic has seen his minutes vary from 19 to 30, and that’s just in the last week. That kind of inconsistency makes him impossible to use in cash games. The upside is there when he sees enough court time, so Nurkic could be worth a look in GPP formats. There is a lot of risk involved here, but the reward could be huge. Nurkic has at least 40 DraftKings points in three of the last six games.

Nerlens Noel ($3,800): It comes down to Noel or Emeka Okafor for the last value slot. I will go with the guy who is ten years younger. Dallas has given Noel solid bench minutes, and he has responded well. There is solid potential for Noel here tonight. He is much more reliable than Okafor.

My pick: Jordan(C), Noel(UTIL); Jordan(C)

Next: FanDuel and FantasyDraft NBA Picks and Pivots

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