DraftKings NBA Picks March 24: Detroit’s frontcourt or Houston’s backcourt?

There are six games on our Saturday. The Minnesota-Philly tilt is not in the main DraftKings tournament, which is too bad. I really wanted to use Embiid against Towns and Simmons against Teague! There are still some solid plays out there on an abbreviated slate. Unfortunately, only the Houston-New Orleans game features a matchup between two playoff teams. Detroit and Charlotte still have playoff hopes. That leaves six tankers playing tonight, which is where risk really comes into play. The Lakers aren’t really tanking because they want worse than the fifth overall pick. That still leaves Chicago, Phoenix, Orlando, Memphis, and Dallas. Three of those five have been tanking for months already!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kemba Walker ($8,500): Walker shredded Dallas for 59.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Both Charlotte and Detroit are on the outside looking in in the East, but they both still have shots at the playoffs. Walker scored a staggering 61.75 DraftKIngs points in just 28 minutes against the tanking Grizzlies on Thursday. Expect him to be the focal point of this team again as the Hornets try to claw their way to the postseason.

Tyreke Evans ($7,900): On paper, this is a great matchup for Evans. However, the Grizzlies are resting players with little or no notice. We got burned by Tyreke earlier this week. The Grizz are effectively trying not to win here. Don’t be shocked if Evans either sits or only plays about half the game. Evans makes sense, but the Grizzlies don’t. That makes him a huge risk.

Honorable Mention:

Rajon Rondo ($6,800): Rondo wont have to deal with Chris Paul tonight, so I see Rondo having another strong outing. The Pelicans are probably int the playoffs barring an epic collapse, but they still would love to avoid Houston or the Warriors in the first round. There is still a lot to play for, which should mean another strong game from Rondo.

Elfrid Payton ($5,800): This is a tough sell here since in their quest to lose every remaining game, the Suns have rendered Payton ineffective. However, this is a revenge game against Orlando. Can the Suns do Elf a solid and give him a crack at his old team? Don’t count on it. Tanking is an art that the Suns have perfected this year, and it is really quite pathetic that the league allows this.

Dark Horses:

Cameron Payne ($5,500): The tanking Bulls are a little more subtle than the Suns, but the objective is the same. That said, Payne has played very well in place of Kris Dunn. Payne has averaged 29.8 DraftKings points per game in the five games without Dunn. There is good value here, especially against Detroit.

Ish Smith ($4,900): Reggie Jackson is starting, but is still on a minutes limit. You can argue, successfully I might add, that Smith is better when playing 30 minutes off the bench. His 31.6 DraftKings point average in three games off the bench since Jackson’s return support this. Smith may be a better value play now than he was as the starter.

My pick: Walker(PG), Smith(UTIL); Payne(PG)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,700): Harden struggled even with Paul out on Thursday. However, Beard has 182.75 DraftKings points in three meetings with the Pelicans this season. There is a lot of potential here so long as Harden takes the court. He sprained his ankle, but played through it on Thursday. That likely had something to do with his low (by Harden standards) score. Expect a return to form tonight.

Jrue Holiday ($8,200): Fair is fair. Holiday has torched the Rockets as well. Holiday has 145.75 DraftKings points in the three games against Houston. Dollar for dollar, Holiday is right there with Harden on production. Given the fact that Beard may still be operating on an ankle that isn’t quite 100%, Holiday is a very strong fade option for Harden.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Jackson ($7,000): This is a good matchup for Jackson, but it’s tough for him to hit value at this price and for this team. Fortunately, we will know whether Booker is a go before the lineups lock (he wont be…the Suns have no reason to play him). Any time Booker is off the court, Jackson is a strong play.

Eric Gordon ($6,800): 29. That is the number of teams that have allowed fewer fantasy points to shooting guards this year than the Pelicans. Just in case you’re not a math major or an NBA expert, that means that the Pelicans have allowed more fantasy points to shooting guards than anyone in the league. Gordon turned in a strong game against the decent Pistons. He could be huge against the Pelicans tonight!

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($6,500): The Pelicans broke KCP out of his slump. Memphis will make sure he doesn’t relapse. A slumping player facing these two teams back to back is like a 12 step program for slumpers. They come out the other side as good or better than they went in.

Dark Horses:

Shelvin Mack ($4,400): The Suns are terrible. We have established that. There is a great chance that either Mack or Augustin go off tonight. There is a good chance that both do with Fournier and Jonathan Simmons still out. I prefer Mack because of the price, but both are strong plays.

Troy Daniels ($3,900): The Magic aren’t much, if any, better. Daniels has been starting with Booker out. If you are nervous about Jackson hitting value, then I recommend Daniels, who has 83.25 DraftKings points in the last three games at a bargain basement price.

My pick: Holiday(SG), Gordon(G); Gordon(SG), Mack(G), Daniels(UTIL)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kyle Kuzma ($6,600): Small forward is easily the weakest position tonight, so why not attack a weak team for our best option? Memphis is solid against small forwards, but all of that is mostly out the window with the Grizzlies putting out the worst product they can. Kuzma has hit 30 DraftKings points in all but one game that Ingram has missed. I really doubt Memphis stops him. It’s debatable that they even try.

Jeremy Lamb ($6,300): Lamb has put up 95.5 DraftKings points in three games starting for Nicolas Batum. It appears likely that Batum is going to sit again, so Lamb is a solid play. He doens’t have a ton of upside, but Lamb has produced a solid 5x value in the absence of Batum.

Honorable Mention:

Harrison Barnes ($6,200): Barnes had his way with the Hornets in the first meeting, racking up 46.75 DraftKings points in that game. We have seen Barnes have some big games when the matchup is right. This is one of those instances.

Reggie Bullock ($5,100): Bullock is mostly a shooter, but Detroit is sorely in need of an outside scorer, so it’s working well for the Pistons and DFS gamers alike. The Bulls don’t defend any position well, so this is another great matchup for Bullock.

Dark Horses:

Mario Hezonja ($4,900): Hezonja is picking up extra minutes with all of the guard injuries for the Magic, but he isn’t playing as much as he did while filling in for Gordon. That does make him more of a risk than usual here, but Hezonja is here as a value pick if you need him.

E’Twaun Moore ($4,300): Moore has 90.5 DraftKings points in three games against Houston so far this year. Many things have changed with the Pelicans since the beginning of the year, but the usage of Moore has not. He is a vital cog to this offense, and is always a solid value play.

My pick: Kuzma(SF), Moore(F), Barnes(PF); Barnes(SF)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Blake Griffin ($9,500): I don’t like the price on Davis against Houston. I still think Brow hits 50 DraftKings points, but Blake could do it for $2,000 less. Griffin has three straight games of more than 50 DraftKings points, and he has a superb matchup against the Bulls. There is risk of a blowout here, but I think the reward outweighs that risk.

Julius Randle ($8,300): Randle continues to play very well for the Lakers. Memphis held him in check in each of the first three meetings, but I doubt they do here. The Grizzlies are barely rolling out a respectable G-League team at this point.

Honorable Mention:

Aaron Gordon ($7,500): The matchup with the Suns is everything you want on paper, but when you take a closer look, there is significant risk here. First off, I know Orlando is not a great team, but there is still blowout potential here. Next, the Magic are out of the playoffs, and Gordon is a big part of their future. They have no reason to push him, especially if this game gets out of hand.

Bobby Portis ($6,500): Markkanen remains out again, so there is solid potential with Portis here. Especially because Portis is going to be coming off the bench again. Why is that so critical? Blake is a good defender. Tolliver is solid, but Portis can push him around. There is decent potential here at what likely will be low ownership.

Dark Horses:

Cristiano Felicio ($4,300): You can jump on Portis or Vonleh if you want. I’m going with Felicio. Felicio has at least 24 DraftKings points over the last four games. The Bulls keep giving him the minutes, and Felicio keeps getting it done. Enjoy the low price while it lasts.

Chieck Diallo ($3,800): Diallo finally came back to earth on Thursday, and he has a tough matchup tonight. However, with his price this low and Diallo playing exclusively against backups, there is still solid value potential for him tonight. Yes, even against a team like Houston.

My pick: Felicio(C); Griffin(PF), Felicio(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

Andre Drummond ($9,300): The Bulls have been bullied on the interior lately thanks to them starting undersized players. That isn’t changing. I have no issues with rolling with Blake and Drummond tonight. The Bulls can’t stop either of them.

Dwight Howard ($8,000): Thanks to his 16th technical, Howard got suspended the night after his monster game against the Nets. This is now his encore performance to his 30-30 night. Dallas isn’t a lot better on the interior, but they are enough better to hold Howard to at least 20-20 instead of 30-30. There is solid potential here tonight as well. Just don’t expect a repeat performance. No one is close to as bad as the Nets inside.

Honorable Mention:

Nikola Vucevic ($7,600): The same caveat applies here as with Gordon. The Magic have no reason to push players who missed large chunks of the season due to injury. Despite the great matchup on paper, Vucevic could end up being a DFS disappointment at this price because I don’t know that Orlando will even play him 30 minutes. That said, the upside is still very high.

Clint Capela ($6,700): I don’t trust anything Memphis right now, especially their veterans. Capela at least has solid upside, and plays for a team that is still giving max effort in trying to clinch home court advantage in the playoffs. Capela’s lines have been a little thin lately, but Okafor and Diallo can’t handle Capela.

Dark Horses:

Alex Len ($4,500): Welcome to the roulette table. Chriss had the better game last night, but Len was at least respectable. That said, his totals have ranged from 16 to 43 DraftKings points, and that’s just in the last week. He has the high upside you covet in GPP formats, but Len is more likely to ruin you.

Nerlens Noel ($4,100): Noel is still getting decent run for Dallas, and he is a constant 5x value. Noel doesn’t have much for upside since Dallas isn’t playing him much, if any, more than 20 minutes per game. There is still solid value here though.

My pick:

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