Early DraftKings NBA Picks March 25: Giannis or LMA?

Early DraftKings NBA Picks March 25: Giannis or LMA?

Despite the early-main split, the really early (1pm Eastern) tip of the Cleveland-Brooklyn game is only featured in a showdown tournament. The other two early games comprise the Early DraftKings tournament. As if the lack of a late swap isn’t bad enough, instead of rectifying the situation, they great another tournament format and chop games off the larger tournaments. Makes perfect sense.

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The money line was up to 280.75 last night. My lineups failed because of Jrue Holiday in one and Blake in the other.

The winning lineup was up a little to 360.75. He built around the Magic and D-12 with the revenge narrative on Elfrid Payton for good measure.

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Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Eric Bledsoe ($7,700): This is not a particularly strong situation for Bledsoe, but on a slate this small, you are going to have to play some guys that you wouldn’t normally consider. Statistically, Bledsoe has the best matchup against the point of any of the teams playing in this early tournament. Take that for what you will.

Honorable Mention:

Goran Dragic ($6,700): The Pacers are pretty good defenders of the point. Dragic has a respectable 30.9 DraftKings points per game in three meetings with Indiana. Bledsoe only put up 29.5 against the Spurs the first time around.

Darren Collison ($6,200): Collison is back to starting for Indiana, but the Pacers still aren’t pushing Collison very hard. That makes it nearly impossible to hit value, especially against a defender like Dragic. That said, I don’t see Collison as having a low floor. He should still top 4x value and creep towards 5x.

Dark Horses:

Dejounte Murray ($5,300): The Spurs have a lot of point guards, which puts a cap on Murray’s upside. He is still hitting about 5x value in every game. Murray should hit value against the Bucks. He may be the only PG that does today.

Cory Joseph ($4,000): Joseph’s return to the bench has not caused a precipitous drop in fantasy performance. Joseph is still picking up a little over 20 DraftKings points per game. I see Joseph as one of the better value picks in this early tournament, even though he has little upside.

My pick: Joseph(PG)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

Victor Oladipo ($8,000): Oladipo has averaged 43.4 DraftKings points in three games against the Heat this year. However, Oladipo has not topped 40 DraftKings points since March 11th. That makes him more of a risk than usual here. Oladipo has played better over the last two games, so maybe his cold streak is ending. Oladipo’s track record against the Heat this year make him with a look.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Richardson ($5,600): Richardson struggled with his shot on Friday for the second time in four games. He has been more volatile since he returned from injury. I suppose we can chalk it up to Corey Brewer‘s defense against the Thunder, but then we have to be worried about the Pacers. Oladipo is a solid defender, and Richardson has only averaged 26.7 DraftKings points per game in the three meetings this year.

Patty Mills ($4,500): Mills has been a shot in the arm for a Spurs team that has needed a scoring presence on the outside. His floor is higher than most value picks. Danny Green is obviously not getting it done. So long as Mills is playing well, he is definitely worth a look. We are going to see Mills in a lot of lineups today, but I can find separation elsewhere.

Dark Horses:

Lance Stephenson ($4,400): Lance is a nice GPP dart throw. He has finally worked his way back into the rotation. Kind of. Stephenson still only played 17 minutes on Friday, but he put up 23 DraftKings points. Miami’s guards are decent defenders, so there is risk involved, but Stephenson should still see decent run here.

Manu Ginobili ($3,900): There is very little I trust in the bottom of this tier. I don’t really trust Manu either, but he is still a superb bench scorer for the Spurs, who will likely need it against Milwaukee. There is decent value potential here, but not much for upside.

My pick: Oladipo(SG), Mills(G)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Khris Middleton ($8,600): I hate almost every option at this position. Middleton only had 24 DraftKings points on the Spurs in the first meeting. Thad Young has a tough matchup with Miami. Jabari Parker faces a relentless Spurs D as well. The saving grace is that Middleton will spend enough time at the two to maybe come close to value. There is still no word on Giannis, but if he is limited again, Middleton is worth a look.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Anderson ($4,900): Anderson is putting up decent numbers lately since the Spurs started playing him around 25 minutes per game again. The Spurs don’t look like a playoff team, yet there they are, right in the mix of everything. Anderson is a decent play, just don’t expect numbers like he put up earlier this year.

Shabazz Muhammad ($4,600): Muhammad picked up a lot of slack left by a missing Giannis, a slumping Jabari, and a cold-ish Middleton. That marks 60.75 DraftKings points in just 34 minutes over the last two games for Muhammad. The Bucks need the production, and if he keeps contributing where Parker is not, there is a chance Muhammad picks up more minutes. I hate the matchup, and if Giannis plays, I’m out, but if Giannis is out again, Muhammad is an interesting tournament play.

Dark Horse:

Tony Snell ($3,400): Snell did break out of a slump on Friday, but I don’t trust him in the least. The fact that Shabazz can play SG also really hurts Snell since his defense isn’t what it used to be and his offense is stagnant at best. If Giannis is out, Snell is intriguing for this price. If Giannis returns, there is no chance I’m using Snell.

My pick: Anderson(SF)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,400): The Bucks are comfortably in the playoffs, so they may elect to punt this one against the Spurs and save Giannis. Milwaukee still has nine games after this. The problem is that Milwaukee is only 3.5 games out of the five slot, which means they could avoid the big three in the first round of a playoff series. Ankles can be tricky, but if Giannis can walk, I think the Bucks use him. Giannis put up 61.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but 5x value is certainly on the table.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($9,500): If Giannis is back, I have a feeling the usage will be high. However, Aldridge put up 48 DraftKings points in the first meeting, and is roughly half the Spurs offense right now. I prefer Aldridge in cash games, but he is a very strong pivot off of Giannis, and he has no injury concerns right now.

Honorable Mention:

James Johnson ($6,100): Johnson seems to be back to consistent production at least. He isn’t what he was early in the season thanks to his teammates stepping up. That’s better for the Heat and worse for us. However, Johnson is consistently in or around the 30’s. He is a strong play in this price range.

Dark Horse:

Al Jefferson ($3,500): Honestly, I don’t like any value pick in this range, especially since Domantas Sabonis practiced in full yesterday. If Sabonis returns, Jefferson has no chance of hitting value. We are likely going to have to find value elsewhere, but if the Pacers are cautious with Sabonis again, Jefferson is worth a look at this price.

My pick: Aldridge(PF), Johnson(F)

Center:

Best Bet:

Kelly Olynyk ($6,400): Olynyk lost the battle of ponytails to Steven Adams on Friday, but he should get back on track against the Pacers. Bam is still stealing minutes, but he isn’t producing. Miami has seen their seed drop from 4th to 7th in about ten days. They don’t want Boston in the first round, so expect to see a heavy dose of Olynyk this afternoon.

Honorable Mention:

Myles Turner ($6,300): Turner abused the Heat in his only game against them this year. In that game, Turner racked up 49.75 DraftKings points in just 31 minutes. Turner is one of the most inconsistent DFS plays out there, but there is potential here, which means many GPP players will chase.

John Henson ($5,000): Henson is inconsistent as well, but his floor is still higher than Turner’s. The Spurs show up as a tougher matchup, but Henson put up 35.75 DraftKings points on them in the first meeting. There is risk involved, but Henson still looks like a decent play.

Dark Horse:

Pau Gasol ($4,700): The Spurs are saving Pau for the playoffs by having him play only off the bench lately. That ruins his fantasy value, but with his price this low against an interior this bad, Gasol could still hit value. Maybe.

My pick: Olynyk(C), Turner(UTIL)

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