DraftKings NBA Picks March 27: Play Jordan against the Bucks!

We are back up to eight games tonight, but a lot of the stars are missing. Curry is still out, and Harden is getting the night off to rest. If Chris Paul can’t go, there is a ton of upside for the Rockets bench against the Bulls. Where else should we look?

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($9,400): The Pelicans are not very good against the point, but Lillard has only averaged 41.2 DraftKings points per game in the three contests this season. However, none of those have come since Lillard has heated up over the last month or so. There is solid potential here for Lillard.

Lou Williams ($7,800): The Clippers are still within earshot of a playoff spot, and the Bucks are trying to play their way out of a first round series with the Celtics one way or the other. What I’m saying is that both teams are still trying, which is somewhat rare this time of year. Williams put up 36.75 DraftKings points in 32 minutes in the first meeting with Milwaukee. It isn’t unreasonable to expect something like that tonight. LouWill has at least that total in each of the last three games. Yes, one of those was against the Bucks.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Bledsoe ($7,300): We wont see any games like Bledsoe has with the Suns while the Bucks are fully healthy. Bledsoe doesn’t dominate the ball like he did with the Suns, but he still sees plenty of scoring opportunities. We usually see Bledsoe right around 5x value for this price no matter the opponent. For this reason, I prefer him in cash games, but there is room for consistency in GPP formats as well.

Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,700): Smith has rounded into a pretty consistent player for Dallas. Any playing time the rookie gets down the stretch can only help, so I would expect Smith’s role to remain pretty constant. This is a solid matchup against the Kings, who have really struggled defending the point since George Hill was dealt. There is solid upside here.

Jamal Murray ($6,600): This is a tough matchup for Murray on paper, but in the first meeting, Murray torched the Raptors for 31.25 DraftKings points in just 21 minutes. Now, things could be different if he has to tangle with Lowry all game, but we know that Murray is a solid floor guy because of the volume of shots he gets.

Dark Horses:

Quinn Cook ($5,900): I’m not sure it even matters who Cook plays anymore. He put up 38 DraftKings points on the Jazz over the weekend, so I’m not scared of Cook being held under value by the Pacers. He could still hit 6x value with his price in this range!

Dejounte Murray ($5,300): Murray doesn’t get enough run to really produce games that are a long ways over value. That just isn’t going to happen this year. However, his floor is nice. Murray hasn’t been below 20 DraftKings points since March 12^th. Murray hit value in the first meeting with Washington last week. There is no reason to believe that he wont do it here as well.

Cory Joseph ($4,300): Joseph has actually outperformed starter Darren Collison, even since Collison regained the starting job. Joseph is much like Ish Smith in that he is more valuable off the bench for short bursts than starting games. Collison will continue to start, but that puts Joseph in a space where he is most likely to succeed anyway, and his minutes are still solid.

My pick: Smith(PG), Cook(G), Joseph(UTIL)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Khris Middleton ($7,900): Middleton has actually been more of a constant than Giannis for the Bucks. Now, Middleton isn’t capable of putting up huge numbers unless Giannis is out, but Middleton has at least 33 DraftKings points in each of the last nine games. That is a nice floor to have. In that span was the first meeting with the Clippers this year. Middleton kicked them around for 45.5 DraftKings points. There is potential here.

C.J. McCollum ($7,500): You know I wont move on without explaining myself. Holiday is facing the team that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to shooting guards this year (Portland), and he has not been close to value in three of the last four games. DeRozan is facing the second best team in the league defending the off guard, and he had just 13.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Denver. It’s an easy switch to move down to McCollum, who is facing the worst team in the league against shooting guards.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Gordon ($7,200): Chris Paul is expected to be back, but James Harden is out for rest tonight. That allows Gordon to make another start. We could see Gordon have a larger role in the offense with Beard out tonight. If for some reason both Paul and Harden sit, you have to play Gordon. There is serious upside here anyway.

Will Barton ($7,000): Barton continues to start at shooting guard with Gary Harris out with strong results. Temper your expectations against a tough Toronto defense, but the volume will be there for Barton. The price is high enough that he is going to have a harder time hitting value against Toronto though.

Buddy Hield ($6,100): Hield has really only had a couple of bad games since his breakout Futures Game over All Star weekend. It’s a tough sell against Dallas, and a tough sell with all of the guards in Sacramento, but it seems as though Hield’s minutes are safe on this rebuilding team.

Dark Horses:

Austin Rivers ($5,600): Rivers continues to play as many minutes as he can handle, and his price is still very reasonable. His production is sporadic though, which makes him more suitable for GPP situations. Rivers put up 40.25 DraftKings points against the Bucks last week. If he is in for a repeat performance, that is over 7x value!

Yogi Ferrell ($5,500): Now it’s J.J. Barea’s turn to sit out with an injury. That leaves Ferrell as the top backup at both guard positions. Ferrell has produced better off the bench than as a starter for the most part, so this would seem to be the situation to use him in.

Dwyane Wade ($5,300): This is a revenge game against Cleveland. Though things are still good between the King and Wade. Wade has played pretty well upon his return to Miami, but he is still hard to rely on most of the time. The minutes aren’t always consistent. The team was in the playoff race before Wade returned. They still are. Sometimes that means Wade is phased out of the game play all together.

My pick: Gordon(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,600): We all know what kind of tear LeBron has been on lately. The only thing that has been able to slow him down is a blowout. This should be a pretty close game throughout. James has 103.75 DraftKings points in two games against Miami this year, which would keep him under value. Of course, Miami hasn’t had to deal with LeBron in the last month or so. This is an entirely different animal. James may not hit 70, but he probably comes close.

Otto Porter Jr. ($6,500): Porter has been struggling from the floor lately, which has led to some lower fantasy outputs. He put up 33.5 DraftKings points against the Spurs last week, and that was with Porter hitting just 5 of 13 shots. If he can get a couple more of those to fall, he is comfortably at 5x value. If Porter can get three or four more to fall, then he is flirting with 6x value. There is decent upside here.

Honorable Mention:

Thaddeus Young ($6,400): Young has been far more consistent than Porter, and he could have more upside against a battered Golden State team. Young has at least 30 DraftKings points in six of the last seven games. It should be seven of eight here against the likes of Looney, Casspi, and Bell.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,900): Aminu has averaged 26.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against New Orleans this year. That could come out to a little under 5x value, but Aminu has put up some big numbers over the last six games with the exception of the Thunder over the weekend. In all fairness, we saw that coming. The Thunder are among the better teams defensively against forwards. I see Aminu getting back into the 30’s tonight.

Dark Horses:

Jabari Parker ($5,400): Parker had his best game of the season against the Clippers last week, putting up 36.5 DraftKings points in a season-high 30 minutes. He may not play that much with Giannis back to full strength, but there is a chance that Parker could go well over 5x value against the Clippers again.

Kelly Oubre ($4,900): The slumps of Porter and Bradley Beal have led to some really productive bench minutes for Oubre lately. Oubre has at least 20 DraftKings points in seven of the last nine games, including each of the last four. His best game of that span came against the Spurs. Oubre abused them for 41.5 DraftKings points in that one.

Rodney Hood ($4,700): Hood has 54.5 DraftKings points in two games against Miami earlier this season. Hood is starting to take on a larger role with the second unit as his injuries seem to be behind him right now. Of course, that could change at any moment. The Cavs have a lot of guys just like Hood on the bench. Hood has the better upside of any of them, but there is a chance that his minutes can be limited without notice.

My pick: N/A

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,300): Giannis sprained his ankle in the second quarter against the Clippers last week, but prior to his departure, Giannis had 23.5 DraftKings points in just 16 minutes. Meanwhile, Anthony Davis has not hit value since the first game of the three straight games and five of seven streak. He’s tired! And Brow is facing a Portland team that has held him to just 58.5 DraftKings points this year…..over two games! Giannis is a much safer play tonight.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($9,200): Aldridge put up 50.25 DraftKings points on Washington last week. Once again, Aldridge is carrying the Spurs. San Antonio would love to get to a position where they have a home series, and those are well within reach. Expect the Spurs to lean heavily on Aldridge again tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Kevin Love ($7,800): Love abused the Heat in the first meeting this year. He put up a staggering 56.75 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes in that game! Love has been a beast since returning from a lengthy absence last week. He is a much safer option than Draymond Green, who may or may not play because of the flu. Even if Green does play, expect him to be limited. I would much rather use Love.

Tobias Harris ($7,100): Harris picked up 37.25 DraftKings points against the Bucks last week. That is the only time in the last five games that Harris has hit value. There is plenty of risk involved here, especially with Giannis playing a full game tonight.

James Johnson ($6,200): On paper, this is a good matchup for Johnson, but he has struggled against Cleveland this year. Johnson only has 43.25 DraftKings points in 56 minutes against the Cavs this year. I have a feeling that Johnson can buck that trend, but don’t expect a huge night. Not even against the worst power forward defense in the league.

Dark Horses:

Skal Labissiere ($5,300): The Kings have put Skal back in the starting lineup, and he has responded with 79 DraftKings points over the last three games. That puts Labissiere right at 5x value at this price, but there is potential for a lot more against Dallas. The Mavs are pretty weak up front, so there is plenty of upside for GPP usage tonight.

Kevon Looney ($4,600): It has been Looney, not Jordan Bell, that gotten the bulk of the playing time with Draymond out. Of course, with the Warriors, bulk is a relative term. Looney played 24 minutes to Bell’s 18. The Warriors are a lot more healthy in the frontcourt than the back, so if Draymond is in, Looney is too big of a risk.

Chieck Diallo ($4,000): Diallo plays more, and often better, than Emeka Okafor. That makes him a solid value play for the Pelicans. Diallo’s offensive game is still very raw, but he is a really solid value play at this price.

My pick: Antetokounmpo(SF)

Center:

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($8,800): The Raptors couldn’t handle Jokic in the first meeting. Jokic went for 50.5 DraftKings points in that one, falling two points shy of a triple double. Yes, he missed in points. Jokic has slowed down lately, but that has something to do with Embiid and Gortat. There is good upside here tonight against Jonas.

DeAndre Jordan ($8,000): Jordan ate the Bucks alive last week with 56.5 DraftKings points. Jordan is one of my favorite plays of the night. 6x value is in the bag, and 7x value is a definite possibility. The Bucks have been weak up front all season long. That wont change tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Kelly Olynyk ($6,700): Olynyk continues to pick up a lot of slack with Hassan Whiteside still out. Olynyk doesn’t start, but he has been far more productive off the bench anyway. He struggled against Cleveland in limited minutes earlier this season. Expect a much better showing from Olynyk tonight.

Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,600): Cauley-Stein has slowed down lately, but it is likely just the competition. He is coming of a rough stretch of Boston, Detroit, and Utah, so there should be nowhere to go but up. WCS had 27.25 DraftKings points in the first game with Dallas. He should get to at least that tonight.

Dark Horses:

Nerlens Noel ($4,800): There are rumblings that Dallas will rest Noel tonight, so keep an eye out for any news. Unfortunately, he plays in the late games, so we may not have any official word before the delightful full lineup lock. If you are in that situation, Noel is too big of a risk. However, if we get word that he is in, this is a great matchup for Noel. 6x value is possible even in his limited minutes.

Crisitano Felicio ($4,500): Felicio may not start the game, but he has at least been starting the second half even when RoLo starts. The Bulls want to give Felicio an extended look, and why not? Felicio has at least 5x value in five straight games.

Tarik Black ($3,000): Capela will rest tonight as well since the Rockets have already clinched the number one seed in the West. The last time Capela was out, Black started. Hopefully we get official word before lineup lock of who is starting for Houston. There is significant upside for whomever starts against the Bulls.

My pick: Jordan(C), Black(PF), Felicio(F)

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