Where do the Nuggets go from here?

The Nuggets lost to the Raptors on Tuesday night despite another stellar offensive performance from Nikola Jokic. The Serbian center had 29 points, 16 rebounds and eight assists in 40 minutes, but the Nuggets blew a fourth quarter lead to drop another game as they try to get into the playoffs.

The loss dropped Denver 2.5 games behind Minnesota, who has the 8-seed with a 43-33 record, with seven games remaining for the Nuggets and six games remaining for the Timberwolves. While the Nuggets have had to deal with injuries this season — specifically with Paul Millsap, who missed half the season with a damaged ligament in his wrist — they haven’t been able to improve from last season, when they finished with a 40-42 record as the nine seed in the Western Conference.

As the other contenders in the Western Conference have improved, the Nuggets have stagnated, failing to make the playoffs and improve on last season while also failing to rid themselves of veterans that are not contributing and are taking up space on the salary cap. The question at the end of this season is the same one they had last season:

“Where do we go from here?”

Salary Cap

When teams have found their core, the quickest way to add contributors to a playoff race is through free agency. Teams can sign veterans, players that have learned how to survive and thrive in the NBA, that compliment their best players and help contribute to a playoff race. In order for the Nuggets to add free agents to their team next season, they’ll need to figure out a way to create space on their salary cap.

In the last offseason, they added over $200 million in salary to their books, giving Paul Millsap a three-year/$90 million contract, signing Mason Plumlee to a three-year/$41 million contract in restricted free agency and extending Gary Harris with a four-year/$72 million contract.

Read More: Melvin Frazier is a ball of role player clay

The Plumlee contract is the most onerous, especially with the Nuggets’ failure to unload Kenneth Faried to a different team. They could be paying their frontcourt $84 million next season (Millsap, Plumlee, Faried, Trey Lyles, while Wilson Chandler and Darrell Arthur have player options) and that’s not including Jokic, who could be in line for a max contract if the Nuggets decline the team option on his contract for next season and allow him to enter restricted free agency.

With Will Barton set to hit free agency, the Nuggets are staring a $22 million tax penalty right in face, and that’s before they offer anything to Barton, whom they have Bird Rights with. That leaves them with limited options in terms of contracts they can offer to free agents, without the promise of playing time with a roster full of players already under contract.

They’ll likely need to bring Barton back, for a variety of reasons. First, both parties already know what their relationship is. The Nuggets need a scoring option off the bench, and Barton needs a team that will give him that opportunity. Second, there aren’t a lot of teams looking to add a sixth man with a multi-year contract, and that’s something the Nuggets could offer to help keep him in town for a few more years.

If Chandler opts out and signs with a different team, they’ll be left with zero small forwards (and Chandler is becoming more and more of a power forward with each season) under contract for next season. They’ll need to find a backup point guard to replace Devin Harris, unless their trust in Monte Morris, a 2017 second round draft pick, increases exponentially over the summer.

Coaching

Head coach Michael Malone came to the Nuggets with a reputation as a defensive coach, but in the three years since he has been in charge, the team has only gotten worse on that end of the court.

While Malone has offered praise for the Nuggets’ best player throughout his tenure in Denver, he has also shown a lack of trust and incompatibility with the franchise player. Malone’s defensive schemes call for guards to funnel dribble penetration into help by the rim, where the center can deter a shot attempt while the guard lurks to close off passing lanes. Jokic, armed with a doughy physique crafted by years of drinking three liters of Coca-Cola per day before signing with the Nuggets, lacks the vertical leaping ability and foot speed to contest shots at the rim like a traditional center. He isn’t a poor defender near the rim, using his vision and awareness to read plays and get into position to prevent shot attempts, but asking him to be Rudy Gobert or DeMarcus Cousins is like asking a dog to learn how to sing songs like a bird.

Meanwhile, his decision to seize control of the offense turned out to be more detrimental than helpful. Malone spoke with the media after a practice in January, saying, “I am calling way more play calls than I did in my first two years. We have gotten away from just playing the game. When you play the game you’re hard to guard because it’s not a play call that they can take away. It is…teams didn’t know what the hell we were doing last year. We just played.”

The decision to call more plays rather than deploy the read and react offense that propelled them to a top-5 offense last season cost the Nuggets games in a season where the playoffs were an organizational goal, despite their recent declarations that a postseason berth was not a part of their vision for this season.

The Nuggets enter the offseason with a head coach that hasn’t been able to improve the defense over a three year window, has made the offense worse the more he becomes involved with it and players whose improvement can not be directly correlated with the coaching staff. It’ll be a difficult decision for the front office to retain Malone, or try to find a coach whose philosophies more closely align with the identity of their best players.

Offseason

A lot of the Nuggets’ future hinges on the decision they make with Jokic’s contract. They can exercise the team option and keep him for one more season as the lowest-paid rotation player on their roster, while risking him entering unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019. That would give them cap space to sign a replacement at small forward if Chandler opts out, or add a veteran point guard to lead a second unit that has coughed up several leads throughout the 2017-18 season.

There is a strong possibility that they decide to package their 2018 NBA Draft pick, which is likely going to be at the very end of the lottery, with some of their veterans to try to acquire a rotation player — a veteran point guard or 3&D wing — rather than adding another young player that won’t play. They could also try to package some of their young players that aren’t in the rotation — Juancho Hernangomez or Malik Beasley — with a veteran like Kenneth Faried, to create a roster spot while also adding a contributor for a postseason run.

Next: LeBron's legendary longevity

The failure to make the playoffs could be a catalyst for change across the organization — or it could be just another season with no meaningful games played in April for a franchise that has made the Conference Finals once in 50 years.