Fansided

Why Alex Ovechkin will break Wayne Gretzky’s goal record

By Dave Stevenson

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 2: Alex Ovechkin #8 of the Washington Capitals celebrates after scoring a second period goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Capital One Arena on December 2, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 2: Alex Ovechkin #8 of the Washington Capitals celebrates after scoring a second period goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Capital One Arena on December 2, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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Not only is the Washington Capitals’ Alex Ovechkin the greatest goal scorer of this generation, he has a great chance of topping a record previously believed to be unbreakable.

In FanSided’s NHL Face-Off series, two writers will argue two sides of a hot-button hockey issue. We’ll post both pieces at the same time and then our NHL editor will evaluate the arguments and determine a winner. 

Recently, Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin hit a rare milestone — 600 goals. It took him only 990 games to do so, the fourth-fewest of any player. When you consider Ovechkin is scoring goals at a historical rate during an era defined by defense, he’s one of the best goal scorers of all-time.

Breaking Wayne Gretzky’s career goal record of 894 goals would cement his legacy. Before Ovechkin, this record seemed unbeatable. However, The Great Eight has made the impossible seem possible.

The Background

This season, as of March 27, Ovechkin is averaging 0.59 goals per game, right on line with his career average. With six games remaining, if Ovi stays at his current rate, he should be expected to score about three or four more goals. This would give him 606 goals, leaving him 288 goals behind Gretzky.

The Case

Expecting a forward on the wrong side of 30 to average 50 goals a season is silly. But if Ovechkin did, he’d pass Gretzky in six seasons. Even if you knock him down to 40 goals a season, he’d need just more than seven seasons.

Let’s be pessimistic and say Ovechkin will repeat his worst goal-scoring season (0.40 goals per game) from here on out, giving him 33 goals per season. He would pass The Great One in just more than nine seasons.

Old age gets the best of everyone eventually, but elite players can usually hide from Father Time longer than most. Ovechkin has the conditioning, work ethic and skill necessary to play well into his forties if he wants to. His legendary durability might disappear with age, but if it doesn’t, he’ll have a huge advantage.

Another thing Ovechkin does at a historic rate is shooting the puck. To score goals, you have to shoot the puck. And you’ve got to do it as often as possible. Ovechkin’s shot generation has been consistently at the top of the league. As long as he has that, he has a chance.

The Takeaway Point

Most importantly, Ovi has shown the ability to adapt his game to remain among the NHL’s most dangerous offensive weapons. This season, Ovi’s been scoring goals from his office, located at the faceoff circle, as usual. But he’s also been going to the net, which has helped him sustain his outlandish goal scoring rate.

Next: Each NHL Team's Biggest 'What if' Moment

In 2005, no one thought anyone would touch Gretzky’s 896 goals. Ovechkin faces an uphill battle, but it’s one he’s fully capable of overcoming.

Not convinced? Read David Rouben’s opposing take here.

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