Why Alex Ovechkin won’t break Wayne Gretzky’s goal record

After Alex Ovechkin hit the 600-goal milestone, fans are wondering whether he’ll be able to dethrone The Great One at the top of the all-time scoring mark. I’m here to tell you that that’s a pipe dream and those fans are wrong.

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Alex Ovechkin put himself in rarefied air when he became just the fourth player to score 600 goals in less than 1,000 games. Better yet, he did it in front of the Winnipeg Jets’ Patrik Laine, who many have already anointed as the second coming of him. Ovechkin joined Brett Hull, Mario Lemieux and Wayne Gretzky in his achievement, and when all is said and done, he wants to catch the latter for best goalscorer of all time. But how far can he conceivably go?

The Background

I should preface this by saying that Ovechkin is undoubtedly the best goal scorer of his generation, and there’s a legitimate argument for putting him ahead of Mike Bossy. After all, last season was a poor one by his standards, and he still scored 33 goals. That said, if Ovechkin wants to overtake Gretzky’s title as the best goal scorer of all-time, he still has a long way to go — 291 goals, to be exact. And despite the numbers he’s putting up this year, Father Time is against him.

The Case

Gretzky played until he was 38. Ovechkin is 32 right now, so for argument’s sake, let’s say he retires somewhere between 38 and 40 — because try as he might, not everyone can be Jaromir Jagr. If you apply Ovechkin’s goals per game ratio of .604 over the course of six full seasons, he’ll stand alone at 900 career goals. But that’s assuming a lot.

While Ovechkin has done well to avoid serious injuries throughout his career, the chances of him playing all 82 games during his age 33-38 seasons are unlikely. That said, even if you account for wear and tear and take him down to an average of 79 games played, he’ll finish with 889 goals — which would put him five short of Gretzky’s total.

But simply using Ovechkin’s current goals per game ratio to try and predict his career output is problematic. Gretzky’s goals per game ratio is .601, but during the first 10 seasons of his career, it was an astonishing .823. Even The Great One saw his production taper off, but he still racked up a ton of assists in his latter seasons to help put him a whopping 714 assists clear of Ron Francis. (Side note: if there’s one NHL Award that should be named after Gretzky, it should be whoever finishes with the most assists.)

It’s tough to predict how far Ovechkin will drop off in goals per game, but a rate of around .550 should be reasonable to expect. The Capitals’ window of contention won’t last much longer either, which makes their second-round exits all the more frustrating. What happens when Ovechkin is in his late thirties and he no longer has Nicklas Backstrom centering him? He can’t create goals by himself for much longer.

We also have yet to take into account the biggest wild card of all — the geopolitical factor. Ovechkin is good friends with Vladimir Putin. He’s likely still miffed that he missed out on winning Olympic Gold because NHL players were forced to stay home while his KHL brethren got to play. If the IOC decides that the men’s hockey tournament is perfectly fine the way it is, Ovechkin may be tempted to take his talents to Ska St. Petersburg, Putin’s favorite team, to compete for Olympic Gold and the Gagarin Cup.

The Takeaway Point

Ovechkin will be eager to take the scoring title away from Gretzky since he knows he’ll never win a Stanley Cup. His shot at history may force him to play longer than he probably should, and on some Capitals teams that won’t be nearly as good as they are right now.

Next: NHL’s newest Mr. 600: Counting down Alexander Ovechkin’s top 5 goals

It’s true that Gretzky’s era of hockey was much more free-scoring than Ovechkin’s. If we could adjust goals for inflation, Ovi might very well have him beat. But as is presently constituted, seeing him overtake The Great One’s lead atop the all-time goals chart would be a reach. But even if he does, Gretzky will still hold 59 other NHL records.

Not convinced? Read Dave Stevenson‘s opposing take here.