Face-Off: Will Alex Ovechkin break Wayne Gretzky’s goal record?
No one agrees that it will be easy for the Washington Capitals’ Alex Ovechkin to catch Wayne Gretzky in goals…but is it even possible?
In FanSided’s NHL Face-Off series, two writers argue two sides of a hot-button hockey issue. We’ll post both pieces, and then our NHL editor will evaluate the arguments and determine a winner.
The Great One and The Great Eight. There’s no question that Wayne Gretzky and Alexander Ovechkin’s names will forever be included in conversations among the most prolific scorers the league has ever seen.
Gretzky retired at 38 years old with 894 career regular season goals. At 32, Ovechkin has 603, including 45 on the year.
Is it possible?
The case for Ovechkin: Dave Stevenson
In arguing that Ovechkin will be able to overtake Gretzky for total regular season goals, Dave Stevenson estimates that on a worst-case basis, if Ovechkin “repeats his worst goal-scoring season (0.40 goals per game) from here on out, giving him 33 goals per season…he would pass The Great One in just more than nine seasons.”
It might be unlikely that Ovechkin is still in the league at 41 years old, but this is the most conservative estimate. In all reality, Ovechkin likely still has a few more 40-goal seasons up his sleeve. Dave also points out how durable Ovechkin is and the fact that shot generation has been consistently at the top of the league.
The case against Ovechkin: David Rouben
Coming down more on the side of reason than hopefulness, David Rouben just doesn’t see how Ovechkin pulls this one off. David doesn’t think Ovechkin has 82 games in him for the next seven seasons straight, so he made his estimates based off an average of 79 games played per season — reasonable enough.
But that led David to this conclusion: “That said, even if you account for wear and tear and take him down to an average of 79 games played, he’ll finish with 889 goals — which would put him five short of Gretzky’s total.”
It’s so close. So close. But what if Ovechkin misses more time? Furthermore, as David points out, the team around him won’t always be this good. “What happens when Ovechkin is in his late thirties and he no longer has Nicklas Backstrom centering him? He can’t create goals by himself for much longer.”
The winner
I like Dave’s optimism. Ovechkin is honestly so close to this milestone. But to believe that he’ll reach it, you have to believe that he’ll remain virtually uninjured and play nearly a full season for the next seven seasons.
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If Ovechkin can’t tough Gretzky’s record, it’s hard to imagine anyone will, ever. But that’s just why they call him The Great One.
Winner: Dave Stevenson