DFS Golf: Getting Up and Down – The Masters

DFS Golf: Getting Up and Down – The Masters

Welcome to the Getting Up and Down DFS Golf article! My name is Josh Thomas and you can find me on Twitter at @dfsupnorth and in this weekly article we will be looking at a few golfers trending up and a few trending down to help you get up and down in Daily Fantasy Golf! The focus of this article is for DFS players who are only playing a few lineups each week. Information will be relevant for those who play 150 unique lineups, but the main goal is to help the casual DFS golf player see some green screens.

We have the first major of 2018 this week, The Masters! I got chills downloading the app back on my phone yesterday, there really is not a better event in sports in my opinion. This week the Getting Up and Down article will be a little different as I’m going to focus on the high salary players (8K and above) and look at 3 that will be a part of my core, and 3 that I will be fading. With the 3 fades, I may have them in a few lineups but will be very underweight on them.

I wrote about the 7K and below range on DraftKings through process of elimination and you can find out who I came up with as my core players.

You can also find my early look at the Masters with the course breakdown and early look at the custom stat model, and my early thoughts on player pool here.

I’ve put out a lot of Masters’ content this week, as has the rest of the DFS community. It’s a lot to sift through and can make your head spin. As usual I use FantasyNational.com for all of my custom stats, and FanShareSports.com for ownership projections. Twitter is a great resource and the DFS golf community is one of the best, with everyone willing to share information. I’m always retweeting great posts and putting out thoughts throughout the week @dfsupnorth so make sure you follow along, but don’t fall into the information overload.

Set your lineups Wednesday night, log out of twitter, and go to bed! The worst is getting up and Thursday morning before lock and switching out a guy who wins a tournament. I’ve been there multiple times, and would have had a nice size cash in the DK Milly Maker if I wouldn’t have flipped Kuchar out of my lineups early Thursday AM last year. Normally I’m a proponent of getting up and checking for WD’s Thursday morning, but its the Masters. No one is going to WD unless DJ falls down the stairs on his way out of his house Thursday Morning.

The pricing this week is extremely soft and we have 16 golfers in the 8K-12K range. As usual the focus is going to be on the player who is not max entering contests, but even if you are, you need to make a stand somewhere if you want to win big. The goal of this article is to find at least 3 players that I would feel comfortable fading. Lets get to work!

DFS Golf: Trending Up – The Masters

In this section, I’ll highlight three players that I’m going to be overweight on, or I will have them in large percentage of my lineups. If Jordan Spieth is going to be 25% owned, If I’m going to be overweight on him, I’d probably be around 50% meaning that if I had 10 lineups, Spieth would be in 5. I might feel extremely confident about a player (hint, Jordan is one of those players) and be massively overweight meaning I have him 7 or 8 of my 10 lineups. As a general rule of thumb, I try not to have 100% ownership of a player as if he for some reason struggles, you can sink all of your lineups. This is tough to do if you only play 2-3 lineups, but I still suggest not having a player be 100% owned in most tournaments.

Jordan Spieth: DK $10400/FD $11000 

Jordan is the 3rd highest priced player on DraftKings and 10th on FanDuel. FanDuel’s pricing algorithm must not take into account Course History as heavily as DK’s and its a spot you can take advantage of as while it’s not much, there is still a bit of salary relief from the guys above him. Why Jordan? He can’t putt, He can’t make a 2 footer! Here’s the deal. Jordan Spieth has been in the solo lead, or tied for the lead in 8 of his 16 rounds played at Augusta. Really thats all you need to know. He just turns it on here. That being said, I’ll break it down a bit more.

I watched almost all of his shots on Saturday/Sunday at the Houston Open, and not only did he look more comfortable putting, he was putting on a clinic with his irons. He wrapped up his best finish of the year with a T3 on a return to bent grass greens. Now he has some confidence as is heading back to the place where yes, he has some bad memories, but where he has been the most dominant player here in the last 4 years.

If you watch any coverage on Golf Channel this week, or read twitter for 5 minutes, you’ll quickly notice how much everyone talks about the massively undulating, pristine, greens here at Augusta. And the assumption is that you have to be one of the best putters in the world to win here but that’s just not the case.

As you can see, it’s just not the case that you need to be a fantastic putter to win here. Yes, he’s ranked 185th right now, but last year he was 42nd, and he was 2nd in 2016. His putting will revert back to the norm, and even it doesn’t, his ballstriking is so good right now, I really don’t think it matters. Here’s the interesting thing, in putts per round, he is 4th and 12th on Saturdays and Sundays this year. So maybe the narrative that he can’t putt is coming from misses on Thursday and Friday when he’s getting the greens figured out, at Augusta he already knows these greens, so the feeling out time shouldn’t be there.

Spieth is 2nd in Birdie or Better % on Par 5’s which is absolutely essential here. He’s 16th in Bogeys Avoided so far in 2018, and 15th in Greens in Regulation gained. He is set up to win this tournament, and while I can see the argument to fade him because of his recent putting woes, I’ll gladly be overweight on him and I really think he could be donning his second Green Jacket this Sunday. Currently projected at around 30% ownership and could be the highest owned player in the field. I’ll be in the 50-60% range, though I would imagine his ownership drops a little to around 25% when it’s all said and done.

Paul Casey: DK $8800/FD $10900

Last 3 years at the Masters: 6th, T4, T6. He’s 8 of 11 in cuts here with 7 Top 20s. And he’s arguably playing the best golf of his career, coming off a recent win at the Valspar. He might be one of the highest owned players in the entire field with early projections of around 25% but that’s for good reason. On the 2018 season here’s where Paul ranks in the major statistics. GIR gained: 7th, Par 5 Scoring: 8th, Birdies or Better: 13th, Bogeys Avoided: 14th. He ranks out 4th in my custom stat model. Combine that with his fantastic course history, I just don’t see how he doesn’t contend unless he really struggles on the greens, as he is 90th on the season in SG: Putting. But if you hit 70% of your greens in regulation, and get it close, those stats don’t necessarily matter as we have already shown.

Paul Casey ranks 24th in Driving Distance this year. He’s 5’10 180 lbs, and is top 25 in Driving Distance. Accuracy doesn’t necessarily matter here but it does help to be accurate off the tee to put yourself in the best position to attack pins, and Casey ranks 40th on Tour this year. He is also #1 in Par 3 scoring, which while doesn’t correlate to winners here, it can only help!

Ownership will be sub 20% in GPP’s as he is priced around Bubba and Justin Rose who should garner a ton of ownership. I just don’t see how you don’t play him. If you are playing Cash Games this week you just lock him in with your first roster spot and move on.

Sergio Garcia: DK $8600/FD $11300

I’ve struggled all week with who to put in this slot and for me it comes down to a combination of ownership, current form, course history, and roster construction. Sergio is woefully underpriced this week in my eyes. I really expected him to be in the $9500 and up range so it’s a bit of a treat to see him here. I figured originally he would be massively owned but it seems the narrative that winners can’t repeat has take hold and early projections have him in the sub 20% range. At that ownership level and this price, I’m fully on board with Garcia this week. At $8600 a top ten finish would provide value, so you don’t need him to win, you just need him to play well here.

El Nino is 14/19 in cuts made here and hasn’t missed a cut at Augusta since 2014. Sergio is a much different player now and is currently exuding confidence that we haven’t seen since he was a young player on the tour. He has some baby swag going after the recent birth of his daughter Azalea and he seems to be relishing his role as Master’s champion, taking great pride in the fact that he was another in a long list of International Champions here.

Looking at his recent results on our 4 key stats, Sergio is sitting 8th for 2018, and 10th for his last 24 rounds. His current form is excellent and his striking the ball similar to how he did last year when he won. Bogey Avoidance is key and last year he led the field in bogeys avoided. If we look at his last 24 rounds at Augusta, Sergio ranks 5th in our model. His results so far this are 4th, 7th and 33rd and his crushing strokes gained off the tee and tee to green.

At this price point adding Sergio to your lineups and pairing him with Spieth and Casey on DK allows you to have around $7400 for your remaining three players. I love the 7K range this week and this gives you a ton of flexibility with your lineup and to make some ownership plays in that range for big GPP’s.

Now that we’ve found our core plays in this range, lets look at who I think is worth fading this week.

DFS Golf: Trending Down – The Masters

This is maybe the toughest thing you have to do when creating lineups for major events..who to fade? The casual player who is only play 5-10 lineups really has to make some stands on players that the guys entering 150 don’t have to. If you play a little of everyone, none of your lineups will be dead but you also most likely be in the running to have a big cash. In this section, I’ll give you three guys who I will be fading and provide some reason why I’m going to whether it be ownership, form, course history, etc. Since we are focusing on the 8K and up range this week, all of these guys have a legitimate chance of winning this tournament, but like I said earlier, you have to make a stand somewhere.

Phil Mickelson: DK $9500/FD $11200

All you really need to do is look at the picture at the top of this page. Phil is wearing a collared, button up shirt, with his jumpman logo on the cuffs, in a practice round. I just can’t. I can’t do it. I’m a Phil apologist, but I can’t get on board with this. I was debating a full fade on Phil this week already, and then I clicked on the twitter app this morning and saw this, and now I’m 100% full fade. This is maybe worse than the shirts they wore at the Ryder Cup in 1999 at Brookline.

Phil’s style choices not enough reason to fade him? Ok fine. I’ll give you a few other reasons to fade him. Phil crushes the Par 5’s here, he’s the number 1 scorer over the last 24 rounds, and he does a decent job of bogey avoidance. But at his price tag you need Phil to win, or at the very least finish top 5, and unfortunately his greens in regulation gained on the field is not what it needs to be for him to contend on a year to year basis, he’s currently 17th in the field in GIR gained at Augusta and 36th over his last 24 rounds. The iron play needs to be spot and he needs to put himself in a good position (preferably below the hole) for him to compete. His scrambling numbers are fantastic, but if he wants to contend, scrambling will be but a minor factor compared to hitting greens in regulation. His past 5 finishes here have been T22, MC, T2, MC, T54.

Phil is playing some of the best golf of his career right and as a former Masters champ, and someone who has played here 25 times there isn’t anyone who knows the course better than him. Could he contend? Absolutely, but at his price tag where he needs to win or top 5 to provide value and projected ownership of around 20% I would rather take my chances on someone else.

Tiger Woods: DK $10000/FD $11500

This is an unpopular opinion and believe me not one that I take lightly, but I’m here to advocate for at minimum a 90% fade on Tiger Woods. Unless Tiger wins, at this price tag, he will not be on the Milly Maker lineup, he most likely won’t be on 50% or more of lineups that cash. Can Tiger win? Absolutely. He’s played excellent this year in his time back and looks like the pre-fire hydrant Tiger of the early 2000’s. His swing is less violent and his short game, which he struggled with over the last 10 years, looks fantastic. Currently Tiger looks to be in the 20-25% ownership range, but with videos like the one above and Thomas Pieter’s comments that Tiger eagled both of the Par 5’s in his practice round Tuesday, that number will surely climb.

Look, this is strictly an ownership play and a tournament pivot.  Play some Tiger if you love him. I just don’t see him winning the Green Jacket in his first time back here since 2015. Bet him for a T20 I don’t see him finishing any lower than that, but when creating a DK lineup players at his price range need to win, and I may be wrong, honestly I secretly hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see Sergio putting that Green Jacket on Tiger on Sunday.

Bubba Watson: DK $8700/FD $10300 

MC/T37/T38/Win/T50

Last 24 Rounds All Courses:

Birdies: 51st     Bogeys: 9th      SG Par 5: 45th      GIR: 3rd

Last 12 Rounds Augusta

Birdies: 30th    Bogeys: 65th     SG Par 5: 14th      GIR: 8th

Bubba Watson is projected to be around 25% owned with these stats. 1 in every 4 lineups will have him in it. I honestly don’t see it. When you can play Sergio, Casey, Rose, even Fleetwood or Matsuyama within a couple hundred of him? Does he have some win equity? Absolutely, but he also has a similar chance to finish outside of the top 30. Recency bias is a funny thing in golf, Bubba wins the Match Play and now is going to be chalk at the Masters? Not for me. I honestly will be a full fade on Bubba. If he wins, I’ll struggle to min cash but I’m willing to take that risk and use his ownership to my advantage. Phil, Tiger, Jack, Snead, Faldo, those guys have three green jackets, can Bubba join that group? Maybe, but I’ll take my chances that he doesn’t, especially at that ownership.

Next, I’ll rank the players in this range 1st -16th and have a few final thoughts to help you in your lineup construction!

DFS Golf: Masters Rankings – 8K Range

Below I will rank the 8K range based on who I feel will score the most DK points. Reminder this doesn’t necessarily mean that they will provide value, and this is not how I necessarily think they will finish, just who I think will score the most DK points, based on their scoring criteria.

1. Jordan Spieth
2. Dustin Johnson
3. Paul Casey
4. Justin Rose
5. Sergio Garcia
6. Jon Rahm
7. Thomas Pieters
8. Justin Thomas
9. Tiger Woods
10. Rickie Fowler
11. Tommy Fleetwood
12. Adam Scott
13. Phil Mickelson
14. Jason Day
15. Bubba Watson
16. Alex Noren

Ownership Pivot Plays:

It looks like Dustin Johnson is going to be massively underowned this week, and will come in less than 20% unless there is a massive shift in the next 48 hours. Let’s not forget he’s the number one player in the world and finished T4 and T6 in his last two trips here. I could get on board with the pivot off Spieth to DJ or even Justin Thomas who also will come in under 20% owned.

I love Adam Scott’s win equity this week and will most likely be playing quite a bit of him in GPP’s. I hate sweating him on the greens, but his iron game has been second to none and he seems to always find himself on the leaderboard here. At 8K and a sub 15% ownership level, he could be the difference maker this week if he plays well.

I originally assumed Henrik Stenson would be massively owned at $7800 this week, but the course history narrative has taken hold and it looks like he might come in under 10%. If he is, this is a smash spot. Yes he missed the cut last year but has 4 straight top 25’s prior to that. I’m going to be well overweight on Stenson as his price makes a lot of sense with roster builds.

Matt Kuchar end up over 15% owned and rightfully so as he crushes here and is only $7600. If you are going to play a lot of the chalk in the high salary range like Spieth, a great pivot is Patrick Cantlay. Cantlay will be under 8% owned and as I point out in the tweet below, crushes Par 5’s, particularly on Bent Grass.

Like everyone else in the industry I love Bryson DeChambeau this week, provides great value at $6800, but he is going to be over 20% owned and I’ll have a full fade on him this week. Kevin Chappell is another industry darling and is seeing his ownership climb close to 20% as well but a recent WD and with only one trip around Augusta (albeit a T7) I’ll be off him this week as well.

Next: Masters Sleeper Picks

Final Thoughts:

This is my favorite week in golf, it really is our equivalent of the Super Bowl. Yes, the other majors are fun, but this is THE MASTERS. Hopefully my advice and analysis pans out for you and you see some green screens, but regardless, sit back and enjoy the spectacle. It’s going to be a fun week, and with everyone back and playing well, this tournament is as wide open as any in recent memory. Good luck and if you have any late lineup questions reach to me on twitter @dfsupnorth and I’ll do my best to help you out!