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Can Tiger Woods win The Masters in 2018?

ORLANDO, FL - MARCH 18: Tiger Woods lines up a putt on the 13th green during the final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented By MasterCard at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on March 18, 2018 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
ORLANDO, FL - MARCH 18: Tiger Woods lines up a putt on the 13th green during the final round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented By MasterCard at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on March 18, 2018 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

The GOAT of golf is back at The Masters for the first time in three years and he’s ready to win with that classic Tiger magic.

Tiger Woods is just one of those guys that moves the needle. Like Michael Jordan. He’s just on a different level than everyone else. Like it or not, that’s just the way it is. MJ was the best player of his generation and many would argue that he’s the greatest of all time. When Jordan was on the basketball court, everything else went away. That’s the way it is with Tiger.

People can remember where they were when he won that historic first Masters in 1997. People can remember where they were when he hit that magical chip on the 16th in 2005. He’s the best of his generation by far and many would argue that he’s the best of all time. For many years, when Tiger Woods was on the golf course, everything else went away.

But we now live in 2018. Tiger Woods is 42 years old and is just six tournaments into this latest comeback following yet another back surgery — his fourth in the span of three years. He hasn’t played The Masters since 2015 when he finished tied for 17th and hasn’t played a major since the PGA Championship that same year when he missed the cut for the third straight time in a major that week. But here we are. Tiger Woods is back at Augusta National. Tiger Woods is back at The Masters.

So there’s only one question left: Can Tiger Woods win?

Las Vegas certainly thinks so. Depending on which book you’re looking at, Tiger is the favorite or sitting right there close to the top in the betting odds with guys like Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy, all of whom have a great shot to win this week in their own right. While they’re likely loving this Tiger story as much as the rest of us,Ā  they’re also unlikely to lay down for the guy.

When Tiger first came back at the Hero World Challenge and finished tied for ninth, it was pretty easy to dismiss his win since there were only 18 players in the field on a fairly easy course. But Tiger still shot three rounds in the 60s and finished at 8-under, 10 shots back of winner Rickie Fowler but eight shots ahead of Dustin Johnson, the world’s top-ranked player. That was fun. He jumped from 674th to 668th in the Official World Golf Ranking. But let’s see him on a real course with a real field.

His next stop was the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in late January. That makes sense. Tiger has owned that place, winning there eight times, including that miraculous victory on one leg at the 2008 U.S. Open. The tournament generally has a good field and Woods shot 72-71-70-72 to finish at 3-under in a tie for 23rd, seven shots behind eventual winner Jason Day. Okay, people said, it’s a top 25 finish and he made it through an entire tournament. That’s a step in the right direction. Let’s see how he follows it up.

Three weeks later, Tiger’s next stop was the Genesis Open at Riviera, the place where he made his PGA Tour debut at the age of 16. Unbelievably, Woods had never won here in 10 tries and six of those were when he was the top player in the world. It’s the course he’s played the most without a victory. Perhaps this version of Tiger would find some success here. He didn’t. He shot 72-76 and missed the cut by four strokes. Uh-oh, people said, he’s done. He doesn’t have it anymore. This is not the Tiger Woods we grew up watching. Throw in the towel, Eldrick. You’ve had it.

A week later, Tiger was in Florida for The Honda Classic at PGA National and things went much better. He didn’t really contend, but still found himself finishing in solo 12th at even par following rounds of 70-71-69-70. It was a big deal for Tiger to be at this golf tournament. This was the site of him walking gingerly off the course after 13 holes in the final round in 2014, not long before that first back surgery. Woods still had some control problems that week, which is natural when one is trying to find his game, but was still able to get that top-12 finish, which says a lot, especially competing against another strong field. World No. 2 Justin Thomas was the winner that week. Okay, people said, that wasn’t bad but he’s still not contending. He’s still not winning.

Well, Tiger certainly tried to change that at the Valspar Championship, didn’t he? After shooting 70-68-67 the first three days at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, Woods found himself just one back of the lead heading into the final round and had he been able to make any of the multiple birdie attempts he had in the middle of his round, he could have breezed to his 80th PGA Tour win. However, he didn’t and a brilliant final round from Paul Casey closed the door on that. But that was the week we saw it.

We saw the Tiger magic. We saw a little bit of the swagger. We saw the club twirls. We saw the Tiger we’ve been waiting on for years now. Two strokes down and two holes to play, we got a Tiger moment when he holed that 44-foot putt to get within one. But then we watched that final putt come up short, which is where Woods ended up as he finished one stroke back of Casey. But we saw things. Actually, a lot of people saw things — those Valspar ratings were insane. But he still didn’t win, they said. The old Tiger would have wrapped that thing up way before the 17th hole, they said.

A few days later, Tiger was back at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, yet another tournament he’s won eight times. And there he was again on Sunday right in the thick of things. That Sunday red looked as bright as ever as he walked the fairways and that familiar smile was just as bright. Tiger was having fun out there and finished in a tie for fifth. While people will point to that wayward drive at the par-5 16th — the one he hit way out of bounds — and say that cost him the tournament, that’s just not the case. Nobody was going to beat Rory McIlroy that day. Tiger in his prime would have had trouble with Rory that day, who went out and fired a final-round 64, which included a 31 on the back nine.

PALM HARBOR, FL – MARCH 11: Tiger Woods reacts to making a birdie putt on the 17th green during the final round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) on March 11, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Ryan Young/PGA TOUR)
PALM HARBOR, FL – MARCH 11: Tiger Woods reacts to making a birdie putt on the 17th green during the final round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) on March 11, 2018 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Ryan Young/PGA TOUR)

So where does this leave Tiger Woods on the first weekend in April, in 2018? He’s six tournaments into this comeback and he still hasn’t won. But what the casual golf fan — the Tiger fan who knows him mostly for his dominance — doesn’t fully understand is just how hard it is to win a golf tournament. The fact that Tiger has done it 79 times on the PGA Tour is astonishing. Sure, he used to win one out of every three or four tournaments he played, depending on which years we’re talking, and that’s the impossible standard he set for himself. People were shocked when he didn’t win. People were shocked when he didn’t contend. It’s absurd, but he was absurd. It’s going to be a long time until we see a stretch like Tiger in his prime.

The 2018 Tiger isn’t Tiger in his prime. This is 42-year-old Tiger Woods, father of two. This is a more relaxed Tiger Woods. This is a Tiger Woods that just played a practice round at Augusta National with Phil Mickelson. This is a man that’s had four back surgeries and is still out here competing with the best players in the world.

Is he playing his best golf? No.

His driver is off and he’s hitting just 51.61 percent of his fairways (201st on the PGA Tour) and 61.42 percent of greens in regulation (183rd). But he is averaging four birdies per round (35th) and his scoring average is 69.474 (5th). He’s ranked third on the PGA Tour in putts per round with 27.78, hasn’t missed a putt closer than three feet all year (ranks 1st) and has converted nearly 35 percent of his putts for birdie or better, which is good for 11th. Those are the stats you want heading into Augusta National.

A few weeks back, golf fans began to wonder if Tiger Woods was back. The answer, then, was an emphatic yes. And the answer to the question of whether Tiger Woods can really win The Masters is the exact same. Will he win? Who knows? Maybe he goes out and shoots a pair of 75s and the haters can dodge him for the weekend. That’s certainly a possibility.

Tiger Woods is back and he’s playing golf free from pain. That’s a win in itself. Is that good enough for him? Probably not. Like the night Jordan scored 40 at the age of 40 against the Nets, Tiger is still a competitor who demands the best of himself. That’s just what every competitor does. For three years, Tiger had to sit around and wonder if his career was over. All that time away from the golf course could have broken him and yes, he did have his fair share of troubled times. But seeing Tiger back on the course — the place where all of that fadesĀ away — is exciting.

This is The Masters, the place where magic happens, a tradition unlike any other. And this is Tiger Woods, the man responsible for so many magic moments at Augusta National, a golfer unlike any other. Are you ready to rule him out?

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