MLB DFS Standouts: April 13th

Tonight’s MLB slate features 13 games with, Boston (6), Houston (5.3), Los Angeles Angels (5.3), Washington (5.2), and New York (5.1), holding the best projected team totals. With high-priced batters in advantageous situations and a handful of expensive pitchers, finding ways to save salary will be crucial for tonight’s slate. I’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS standouts from the perspective of batted ball data, line movement, and stolen base probability.

MLB DFS Standouts: Batted Ball Stats

Mitch Moreland – DK $3300 – FD $2400

Boston will host the visiting Orioles tonight, in a game in which Boston is projected to score six runs. Mitch Moreland will draw an attractive matchup as he faces off against a righty, Chris Tillman. Moreland hasn’t produced much, with his limited starts, but in the last 15 days, his distance is up 17 feet, his exit velocity is up 3 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is up 9%, over his yearly average. If Moreland is batting cleanup, his batted ball stats may be an indicator of good things to come.

Jason Kipnis – DK $3800 – FD $2900

Jason Kipnis has had a horrific start to the season, and his DraftKing’s price reflects his struggles. He’s priced at $3800, $500 dollars cheaper than his price was on opening day. While he has had a tough start at the plate, his batted ball stats don’t match up with his decline in fantasy production. In the last 15 days, his distance is up 2 feet, his exit velocity is up 1 MPH, and his hard hit percentage is up 9%.

Line Movement

Curtis Granderson – DK $3500 – FD $2900, Justin Smoak – DK $4800 – FD $4000

If you’re looking for a stack with a bit lower ownership, consider the Toronto Blue Jays, who have received attention from some sharp money. Cleveland opened this game as a -155 favorite, but is now down to a -130 favorite. With the public backing the Indians, this reverse line movement is interesting. In addition to the movement on the side, the total has also jumped up a full run, from 8 runs to 9 runs.

Ian Kinsler – DK $3900 – FD $2900, Justin Upton – DK $4700 – FD $4200

The Angels have seen a boast in their projected team total, as the line and total have moved in their favor, in a game against the Royals. LA opened as a -119 favorite and now sit as a -148 favorite. In addition, the total has moved up a half of a run, from 9 runs to 9.5 runs. An Angels stack will be quite expensive, but cheaper options like Chad Kuhl and Kenta Maeda could offer some salary relief.

Stolen Base Upside

Dee Gordon – DK $4000, FD – $3500

Speedster, Dee Gordon, should be leading off for the Mariners tonight, and he’ll draw a good matchup on the base paths, as he faces the righty, Andrew Triggs. Triggs allowed 15 stolen bases last year (23rd most), and a successful stolen base percentage of 79%. Gordon has already stolen five bags on the season and will have a good chance to add to his total tonight.

Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots

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MLB DFS Standouts: April 13th

By Matt McGarvey | Apr 13, 2018