Nylon Calculus: Trail Blazers-Pelicans win probabilities, style, matchups and more

Look, I know what you’re thinking: all we want to talk about is the stars. This playoff series, even with all the great role players, is just about the stars. And I can’t help it. That’s why I have to talk about multiple time All-Star Rajon Rondo and his bizarro stats.

We all know he’s a poor shooter who scores very little for someone with the ball in his hands often, or that he’s a master thief. He’s also one of the worst foul shooters for a point guard in league history. In fact, it’s gotten so bad that his free throw rate is historic. No one’s had a larger ratio of assists to free throws attempted in NBA history with at least 40 attempts. Typically, if you have a high rate of assists, you’re most likely driving often, and if you’re driving you’re in the high foul rate area under the rim. But Rondo is not picking up those fouls, and I imagine a large part of that is his fear of going to the free throw line, or his general aversion to scoring at all. That’s good news for the Blazers and whoever “guards” him. Damian Lillard, in particular, should feel very lucky.

Table: Highest assist-to-free throw attempt ratios, min. 40 FTA

— Justin Willard (@AcrossTheCourt)

Defensive matchups

This series features one of the most intriguing backcourt matchups in the 2017-18 playoffs.

Damian Lillard has maintained his stellar offensive play, averaging 27 points on 59 percent true shooting and 30 percent usage — practically identical numbers to what he posted last season. He’s ramped up his 3-point attempt rate from 39 to a career-high 45 percent, and he’s launching them from greater distances. According to ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus, his offensive impact amounts to 5 points per 100 possessions, which ranks among the best in the league.

The tall task of containing Lillard belongs to Jrue Holiday, and there are few candidates better for the job. The Pelicans defense has performed much better with him on the court. Even when accounting for teammates, opponents and other factors, his defensive contributions rank in the top five among point guards. It’s one of many reasons why he’s seriously considered for an All-Defense spot.

Let’s take a closer look at the Lillard-Holiday matchup with the following chart, which shows how the Pelicans matched up defensively against the Blazers during their regular-season series. Each line indicates the defender who spent the most time guarding a specific offensive player on a given possession. The thicker the line, the more frequent the matchup.

Holiday was identified as the primary defender on about 40 percent of Lillard’s offensive possessions. In these instances, the Blazers scored 1.10 points per possession. In other cases, they scored 1.13. There are obviously numerous contextual nuances that these numbers overlook, but they nonetheless shed some light on the importance of Holiday’s role in this series.

— Positive Residual (@presidual)

Offensive styles

These charts are not meant to evaluate whether an offense is good or bad. They are designed to help illustrate how teams go about the goal of trying to put the ball in the basket. Each team’s offense is evaluated on four stylistic spectrums.

Ball movement is measured with the average touch time for each team, from the NBA’s player tracking statistics. A lower average touch time means the ball is moving from player to player more quickly.

Player movement is measured with a combination different NBA.com tracking statistics, and works out to average distance traveled per 24 seconds of offensive possession.

Pace is measured with the average length of an offensive possession from Inpredictable, a more accurate representation for how quickly a team is working than traditional pace.

Shot selection is measured with MoreyBall percentage — in this case the percentage of a team’s true shooting opportunities that came at the rim, from the free throw line, or on a 3-pointer. It’s a generalized measure but captures something about how much each team hews to the shots that are, on average, the most efficient.

The Blazers offensive style has really simplified this year. It relies heavily on the individual shot creation abilities of CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard, with a minimum of movement of players and the ball. The Pelicans, on the other hand, play a much more free-wheeling game, pushing the pace and wearing defenses out. Whichever team can assert their style could have an edge.

— Ian Levy (@HickoryHigh)

Next: Looking for an NBA Defensive Player of the Year

Win probabilities

To project the series, I am using my in-season game projection model. The model is trained off historical game data, and accounts for rest, travel, team strength, and matchup. Since I began using the model to predict outcomes, I have been able to correctly identify the winner in about 70 percent of games.

The upset potential for this series is quite high. The Blazers have struggled mightily of late, limping into the playoffs with a 1-4 record in their last five. Meanwhile, the Pelicans come in on a five-game winning streak including impressive wins over the Spurs and Warriors. The Blazers are considered small favorites in the series, winning in 55 percent of simulations. Neither team has a clear edge for sweeping the series, although the Blazers have a 17 percent chance to win in fuve games. The most likely outcome is the Blazers winning in seven games, which occurred in 19 percent of simulations, but the Pelicans have a very good chance of stealing the series in six games (18 percent) or pushing it to seven and stealing one on the road (13 percent). This will absolutely be one of the best first round series in the Western Conference.

— Jacob Goldstein (@JacobEGoldstein)