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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday April 14

By Brian Tulloch

NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 13: Asdrubal Cabrera
NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 13: Asdrubal Cabrera /
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MLB DFS
NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 13: Asdrubal Cabrera MLB DFS /

Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Friday’s MLB DFS slate was a good example of where sometimes simply playing the best plays regardless of ownership is the smart route as Gerrit Cole, the clear top SP, put up a slate leading 36 fantasy points and the popular Red Sox stack delivered a solid night with a 7 run outing against Chris Tillman. The big difference makers were the one-off plays at the plate like Aaron Hicks (34), Todd Frazier (33), Khris Davis (30) and George Springer (29) who each had big games and when paired with Cole and a Red Sox core were a clear path above the cash line on this night.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS
MLB DFS /

MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:

We get a nice split slate today with some spectacular pitching options on the early slate but also some weather issues we need to watch out that could completely alter this slate. Now I am not a weather man but let me break down a few quick places to watch:

  • Yankees/Tigers – Heavy and steady rain all day expected
  • Cardinals/Reds – 50-60% chance of rain from 11AM-5PM
  • White Sox/Twins – Near 100% chance of precipitation (rain/snow) by mid-afternoon
  • Braves/Cubs – Steady rain (70% chance) all during game time
  • Blue Jays/Indians – 80% chance of rain through the start of the game

So let me say this another way – 5 of the 8 games on the slate have what appear to be significant weather risks on tis early slate. I am going to approach this slate with weather in mind but to be honest, if we lose 4-5 games off this slate it may become a stay away for me – just keep that in mind as we approach lock.

Max Scherzer ($23.7K) is the top arm on this slate and with no weather issues in DC he is the one guy you can feel confident in locking in early across all your rosters. Mad Max is a massive -190 home favorite against the Rockies with a  slate leading 34.5% K rate and could face a Colorado team without Nolan Arenado and/or Gerardo Parra if their suspension is upheld after receiving 5 and 3 games respectively on Friday. The Rockies also continue to be without Charlie Blackmon who is day-to-day with an injury which could mean the best pitching option on the slate gets a watered down line-up to mow through – do not over think this one, Max is the SP1 to build around.

Corey Kluber ($23.2K) is every bit the ace that Scherzer is with a 34% K rate, 15% swinging strike rate and comes into this game as a huge -230 home favorite against a Blue Jays team that will be without Josh Donaldson. It feels weird that we haven’t really had a chance to play Kluber but the Indians have had their normal early season 6PM EST start times which have kept them off most of the main slate thus far but assuming this game is OK weather wise, he is every bit the equal/pivot off Max in DC.

I really hope we get the all clear for this game as I would love to stack both elite arms today and I also hate to think how massively chalky Scherzer would become if this game is rained out and everyone just swaps out Kluber for Max in the same roster builds. The reality is you have two of the best arms in baseball going on the same slate and on FantasyDraft you can lock both in and still have over $6.6K per batter to fill out your line-up. Now that may not seem like much and sure it takes you off Bryce Harper‘s of the slate but we only have one team with a projected run total over 5 today (Red Sox) so building around the best pitching options may be our ideal starting point in all formats.

MLB DFS
MLB DFS /

MLB DFS – Early Slate Hitting:

The Red Sox and Orioles game has the highest implied game total on the early slate at 9.5 and the Red Sox once again have the highest implied total at 5.1 runs which should make them popular today. Unfortunately the Red Sox cannot face Chris Tillman every night and the match-up against Alex Cobb is not nearly as favorable as Vegas seems to be showing and it is interesting that the run total has come down from 5.4 to 5.1 in the early action. Cobb throughout his career has been exceptional at inducing ground balls and limiting HR’s, in fact he has less than 1 HR/9 to batters from both sides of the plate even though he has surrendered 32% hard contact to hitters.

My take here is that this is a spot where recency bias on the Red Sox bats and the Vegas total could lead people to stack this team at an ownership level that is worth a fade considering Cobb is a much better pitcher than I think folks will realize. The hard contact rate was high again last year but his ability to limit runs is legit as his XFIP of 4.1 was not far off from his 3.66 ERA so this may be a spot to let others chase the Vegas data and we can pivot elsewhere. The one guy I would use here today for salary savings alone is Mitch Moreland ($5.6K) who at this price point in the middle of that order is an exceptional one-off with the platoon advantage off a right-hander in Cobb.

The Rangers and Astros game will have no weather concerns being played in a dome and the pricing outside of a few high-end bats on the Houston side makes this an interesting game stack from a price perspective if you want both Max and Kluber on the early slate.

Yuli Gurriel ($8.1K) has been activated off the DL for the Astros and was slotted right back into the #5 hole in the potent Astros line-up and this seems like a great time to jump on him against LHP Mike Minor before the masses realize he is back. The Astros have a 4.8 run projection and although Minor has been impressive, including holding this same Houston team to 2 ER in 4.2 IP in his opening start, there is simply too much fire power in this right-handed heavy line-up to overlook them as a stack. George Springer ($9.7K) is one of my favorite plays on this slate and on any slate he faces a LHP and you can easily add someone like Evan Gattis ($7.4K) or look to potentially wrap around stack with a low-owned #9 hitter like Jake Marisnick ($6.6K).

On the other side of this game, I know the match-up against Charlie Morton is not ideal but this is a pitcher who gave up 1.11 HR/9 at home last season and the Rangers prices are just insanely cheap here considering the talent level. Jurickson Profar ($4.9K), Adrian Beltre ($5.9K) and Nomar Mazara ($6K) is one of the cheapest 2-4 stacks in MLB DFS right now and although Morton is not a gas can by any means, you are simply price enforcing the talent here on the Rangers side.

MLB DFS
HOUSTON, TX – APRIL 07: George Springer /

MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview: Early Slate

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!

More from FanSided

SP: Max Scherzer ($23.7K)

SP: Corey Kluber ($23.2K)

IF: Adrian Beltre ($5.9K)

IF: Yuli Gurriel ($8.1K)

IF: Evan Gattis ($7.4K)

OF: George Springer ($9.7K)

OF: Nomar Mazara ($6K)

OF: Chris Davis ($5.5K)

Util: Mitch Moreland ($5.6K)

Util: Jurickson Profar ($4.9K)

Slate Overview: The more I look at this slate the more I am convinced we should pay up for SP as their do not appear to be any “must have” offensive spots but we need to keep our eyes on the weather here on this early slate as we could end up seeing the ownership concentrated on the few “safe” spots we have. Assuming we get the OK in Cleveland, I am locking in Kluber and Max and building around the under priced bats in Houston/Texas and will look to fade the Red Sox if I think the ownership will be overwhelming againsta  pitcher in Alex Cobb that rarely gets blown up.

MLB DFS
MLB DFS /

MLB DFS – Main Slate Overview:

The Main Slate pitching options are not nearly as enticing as the Early Slate but it looks like all six games are clear weather wise which means we have less risk in building our line-ups.

Jameson Taillon ($23.3K) may seem over-priced when you consider this is what we paid for Kluber in the early slate but his 32% K rate over his first two starts and a match-up against the Marlins may make this price a worthwhile investment. From a pure game theory perspective I wonder how many people will pay this much for Taillon and I will be honest – I balked at it at first too – but when you really dig into the rest of the slate you will be met with a bunch of brutal options that make Taillon more and more appealing. Through his first two starts not only has the K upside been there but he is also limiting hard contact to 16% as his ability to induce a ton of ground ball (11 last start) will serve him well from a run prevention standpoint against an already weak Marlins line-up. It seems crazy to say this but Taillon at $23K may be a cash game lock.

Matt Harvey ($13.8K) is going to be a lock and load SP2 for me tonight as this price point is just way too cheap in my opinion. Harvey is the 8th highest priced pitcher on the slate meaning only four pitchers sit below him and we saw in his opening start against the Phillies the K upside was still solid as he sported a 28% K rate in that game.  In general the Mets are going to be a team that I build around tonight not only with Harvey but with the bats as they get to face RHP Chase Anderson in Citi Field with warm temperatures expected in NY today.

Anderson in his career has shown reverse splits, giving up 1.4 HR/9 to RHB so I have no issue locking in Yoenis Cespedes (9.3K) but it is tough to overlook the left-handed power here with Michael Conforto ($9.2K), Jay Bruce ($7.6K) and an extremely under priced Asdrubal Cabrera ($6.6K) who is red-hot at the plat right now.

The other offensive spot that jumps out to me today is in LA as the Dodgers face a pitcher in Taijuan Walker they have had some serious success against and when you consider how much Walkers struggles with LHB it is not wonder this lefty heavy Dodger team could cause him fits. Corey Seager ($8.3K), Cody Bellinger ($8.5K) and Yasmani Grandal (7.5K) make for an elite three-man stack here with Seager and Grandal having some great BvP numbers going 9 for 19 with 2 HR off Walker in their careers.

MLB DFS
MLB DFS /

MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview: Main Slate

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!

More from FanSided

SP: Jameson Taillon ($23.3K)

SP: Matt Harvey ($13.8K)

IF: Asdrubal Cabrera ($6.6K)

IF: Cody Bellinger ($8.5K)

IF: Corey Seager ($8.3K)

OF: Yoenis Cespedes ($9.3K)

OF: Michael Conforto ($9.2K)

OF: Jay Bruce ($7.6K)

Util: Yasmani Grandal ($7.5K)

Util: Jonathan Lucroy ($5.9K)

Slate Overview: Salary does not appear to be an issue on this slate as you can pay up for someone like Taillon and still easily stack big bats across the slate. The Mets bats, especially Asdrubal and Bruce are just way too cheap and the Dodgers against a pitcher who struggles versus lefties in one of the best parks for left-handed power seems like a stack waiting to happen. Watch the weather on the early slate and enjoy two fun slates of MLB DFS today folks!

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