Fantasy Baseball 2018: Is Tyler Mahle safe to add?

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - APRIL 29: Tyler Mahle #30 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field on April 29, 2018 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - APRIL 29: Tyler Mahle #30 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field on April 29, 2018 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images) /
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The Reds don’t look good this season but they have some fantasy value. Pitcher Tyler Mahle could be one of those players to add.

The Cincinnati Reds are one of the worst teams in the league this season. Though, they do have some individuals that are worth rostering in most fantasy leagues. One of those players could be pitcher Tyler Mahle. Should you take a risk on the 23-year-old?

Mahle impressed in his first start, pitching six shutout innings with one hit, two walks and seven strikeouts against the Chicago Cubs. He then allowed five runs in back-to-back starts. Since then, however, he seems to have things figured out.

In his last two starts, Mahle gave up a combined four runs on seven hits and four walks while striking out 18 in 12.1 innings. He had a 2.92 ERA and two quality starts in those two games.

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His most recent start against the Minnesota Twins was his longest start of the season, 6.1 innings. Mahle tends to have an elevated pitch count by the time the sixth inning comes around. He averages 90.5 pitches in 5.5 innings.

The Reds offense can score enough runs to give Mahle the win. The negative is that he likely won’t pitch long enough to earn the quality start. Even with the short outings, Mahle strikes out his fair share of batters, 10.3 K/9. He has a 62.6 first pitch strike rate and 46.1 swing rate.

He also gives up a few too many home runs, 1.9 HR/9 but there isn’t much damage with that as they are mostly solo home runs, hence the sub-4.50 ERA. Mahle gives up too many hard hits, 41.6 percent hard-hit rate. If he wants to be successful this season, he needs to limit the fly balls and increase his groundball rate.

Mahle will make his next start on May 5 at home against the Miami Marlins. The team matchup is a good one but Great American Ballpark is a hitter-friendly park so a Justin Bour or Miguel Rojas home run isn’t out of the question.

Next: All Waiver-Wire Offense Picks

Mahle is owned in just 11.1 percent of ESPN leagues and 38 percent in CBS Sports leagues. The arrow is pointing up. With limited good starting pitching available on the waiver wire, add him ahead of his next start and reap the benefits.