Preakness Stakes 2018 preview: How serious is Justify’s post-Derby injury?

Justify sustained a relatively minor injury sometime during the Kentucky Derby. How might that affect him in the upcoming Preakness Stakes?

So much of horse racing has to do with luck. You can have the best bred horse on the planet, but if the horse doesn’t really want to compete, it’s not going to be a successful racehorse. You can have the most talented and competitive horse, but if it’s body doesn’t hold up, there’s a problem. And even if you give it the best care in the world things happen, not always much you can do about it.

Really, you have to look no further than Justify. He won the Derby in pretty impressive fashion, but anyone who saw him the next day could tell he was hurting, no matter what the trainer said. Since then the horse’s trainer, Bob Baffert, admitted that Justify was treated for a bruised heel. So the question becomes has it really healed? Hoof bruises can range from barely there to pretty severe, but it certainly looked like Justify was hurting on day one. That makes it seem like a deeper bruise, that would take more time to heal, is likely.

But ultimately, the damage may have been determined by when in the race he suffered the injury, and how long he spent running on it. Horses adrenaline runs super high in a race, so whenever the injury happened he wouldn’t have felt it until afterwards. So the outcome of the race (Justify’s win) should not have really been effected by a bruised heel.

However, if he bruised it coming out of the gate, he ran on it hard for 1 1/4 miles. If he bruised it as he was pulling up he didn’t run hard on it at all.

Related to this is how much training he had to miss. A hoof bruise won’t really heal if you keep pounding it on the track every morning. So if his connections wanted the bruise to heal quickly and effectively, something would need to change. But there are ways to take care of it other than skipping work. Farriers, the people who put horses shoes on, can put a pad, generally made of some type of plastic or leather, under the horse’s shoe. This at least keeps the dirt and rocks from pressing down on the bruise and injuring it further. Despite his statements to the media, the day after the Derby, you have to think (or at least hope) that the trainer knew what was going on, and took action.

What actions were taken, and how effectively will determine Justify’s status come race day. He could be just fine, win the Preakness and go on to sweep the Triple Crown. However if he’s still hurting he might not even hit the board. The time for judgement is nearing, he better be ready.

Next: The official flower of every Triple Crown race, explained

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