Nylon Calculus: The Warriors and Rockets are hunting mismatches
By Ian Levy
The Rockets bounced back from a discouraging Game 1 loss by blowing out the Warriors in Game 2 and evening the series. Not much was working right for the Warriors offense in Game 2, the Rockets were much better in their halfcourt defense, more composed and coordinated. However, one of the things that has continued to work for Golden State is targeting James Harden.
Through the first two games of the series, Harden has played 145 defensive possessions. The Warrior he has been guarding has attempted 36 shots on those 145 possessions, or just under 25 percent. Considering an even distribution of 20 percent among the five defenders on the floor, having Harden’s defensive assignments attempt a quarter of the Warriors shots doesn’t seem like a huge bump. However, the Rockets were much more successful at hiding Harden on less threatening defensive matchups during the regular season, where his primary defensive responsibility attempted a shot on just 19 percent of the possessions he was on the floor.
Players like Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala haven’t necessarily been more aggressive when defended by Harden but Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry have all attempted more shots per 100 possessions when defended by Harden than they did across the entire regular season. Harden has defended that trio for 95 possessions, on which they have attempted 31 shots and scored 41 points, on a 61.3 effective field goal percentage.
Kevin Durant has been especially aggressive in hunting and attacking mismatches. Trevor Ariza has defended Durant the most in this series, for a total of 53 possessions, and has been very effective. He’s held both Durant and the Warriors below their regular season per 100 possession scoring averages in this matchup, and has also deterred Durant from shooting as often as he did during the regular season.
P.J. Tucker, Houston’s other primary Durant defender, has been far less successful. Durant has also had 50 possessions where Harden, Clint Capela or Chris Paul spent the majority of the possessions defending him. He’s attempted a shot on nearly half of those possessions and racked up 39 points on a 70.8 effective field goal percentage.
Obviously, these stats don’t capture everything. The defensive matchups are based on which players spend the most time guarding the offensive player on each possession, so they might be missing instances where a shot came out of a late switch. However, those numbers would likely emphasize the trend even more strongly.
Durant exploiting mismatches has been incredibly effective for the Warriors, and it was one of their only avenues to efficient offense in Game 2. However, it’s worth wondering if this focus on targeting specific defenders took them out of their rhythm. During the regular season, the Warriors averaged 322.7 passes and 50.9 potential assists per game, fourth and second in the league, respectively. In the two games against Houston, those numbers have fallen to 277.5 passes and 41.0 potential assists per game.
Next: Tracking the playoff highs and lows of LeBron James
There is some chicken-or-egg at play here — have the Warriors leaned more on targeting mismatches because other things haven’t been working as well? Or has excessive targeting caused some kinks in the rest of the offensive flow? Regardless, figuring out how to get both elements working will be key to their ability to bounce back in Game 3.