Fansided

Nylon Calculus: Box Plus-Minus for international leagues

By Jacob Goldstein

WIZINK CENTER, MADRID, SPAIN - 2018/04/27: Luka Doncic (C) during Real Madrid victory over Panathinaikos Athens (89 - 82) in Turkish Airlines Euroleague playoff series (game 4) celebrated at Wizink Center in Madrid (Spain). April 27th 2018. (Photo by Juan Carlos García Mate/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)
WIZINK CENTER, MADRID, SPAIN - 2018/04/27: Luka Doncic (C) during Real Madrid victory over Panathinaikos Athens (89 - 82) in Turkish Airlines Euroleague playoff series (game 4) celebrated at Wizink Center in Madrid (Spain). April 27th 2018. (Photo by Juan Carlos García Mate/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

With the NBA Playoffs down to just four remaining teams, the majority of the league has shifted focus towards the upcoming draft on June 21. Along with all of the prospects coming out of the NCAA, teams will be looking at a plethora of prospects from overseas for both first-round selections and draft-and-stash prospects. In the past few weeks, I have put together a database of 2017-18 Box Plus-Minus data for a selection of major international leagues where these prospects will be coming from.

I used Box Plus-Minus because it is an easily understandable metric with data that is readily available for numerous of these international leagues. In total, I ended up compiling data for the following 13 leagues (listed roughly in order of competitiveness relative to the NBA):

  • EuroLeague
  • Spanish ACB
  • Italian Lega Basket Serie A
  • Adriatic League Liga ABA
  • Australian NBL
  • Turkish BSL
  • French LNB Pro A
  • German BBL
  • Israeli BSL
  • Greek HEBA A1
  • Puerto Rican BSN
  • Lithuanian LKL
  • Chinese CBA

The complete database can be found here.

International Standout Prospects

Luka Doncic: Obviously enough good things have already been said about the potential No. 1 pick and his dominance in Europe at just 19 years of age. He finished second in EuroLeague in both BPM and VORP and led the ACB in both categories as well — as impressive a resume as is possible for a European prospect.

EuroLeague: +5.1 OBPM, +1.8 DBPM, 2.3 VORP (99th percentile in BPM)

Spanish ACB: +4.7 OBPM, +4.2 DBPM, 2.2 VORP (99th percentile in BPM)

Dzanan Musa: One of the other European prospects getting looks in the mid-first round, Musa statistically was a really good player in the Adriatic League. Billed as an offense-first wing, Musa had good OBPM numbers (96th percentile) and a better DBPM than I would have guessed based off scouting reports (89th percentile).

Adriatic League Liga ABA: +2.4 OBPM, +0.61 DBPM, 0.9 VORP (96th percentile in BPM)

Elie Okobo: Okobo has recently moved up draft boards thanks to a big 44-point game in the French Pro A league. While Okobo has shown dynamic skills for an NBA combo guard, his defense in has been worrisome (22nd percentile) in a league where former NBA player Boris Diaw was in the 94th percentile on defense. Still, his offensive talent (94th percentile) will be his ticket to sticking in the NBA long-term.

French Pro A: +3.5 OBPM, -0.9 DBPM, 1.3 VORP (89th percentile in BPM)

Jonah Bolden: The early second-round pick by the 76ers in 2017 has had a really good stash year in the Israeli BSL and EuroLeague. Bolden’s shooting and offensive impact regressed for last season (negative OBPM in both leagues), but his defensive value was still clear. Bolden would be a good candidate to join the 76ers this offseason as a cheap bench player.

EuroLeague: -0.6 OBPM, +4.3 DBPM, 1.1 VORP (93rd percentile in BPM)

Israeli BSL: -0.6 OBPM, +3.7 DBPM, 0.8 VORP (91st percentile in BPM)

Nikola Milutinov: The Spurs’ 2015 first-round selection completed a second strong stash year in the Greek HEBA A1 league and EuroLeague. A solid offensive player, Milutinov’s NBA value will come from his good defense and strong rebounding.

EuroLeague: +1.5 OBPM, +3.5 DBPM, 1.4 VORP (97th percentile in BPM)

Greek HEBA A1: +4.0 OBPM, +8.1 DBPM, 1.5 VORP (99th percentile in BPM)

Next: Blowouts are the new normal in the Conference Finals

Former NBA Players

Rodrigue Beaubois (EuroLeague & ACB): 84th percentile in BPM in EuroLeague, 92nd percentile in BPM in ACB

Kostas Papanikolaou (EuroLeague & HEBA A1): 95th percentile in BPM in EuroLeague, 96th percentile in BPM in HEBA A1

Boris Diaw (French Pro A): 92nd percentile in BPM

O.J. Mayo (Puerto Rican BSN): 74th percentile in BPM

MarShon Brooks (CBA, now back in the NBA): 99th percentile in BPM

Ty Lawson (CBA, now back in the NBA): 98th percentile in BPM

Jimmer Fredette (CBA): 97th percentile in BPM

Jared Sullinger (CBA): 97th percentile in BPM

Home/Nylon Calculus