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Nylon Calculus: How the Four Factors explain the Warriors and Rockets

By James Patrick Oxford

OAKLAND, CA - MAY 26: Eric Gordon #10 of the Houston Rockets looks to pass against the Golden State Warriors during Game Six of the Western Conference Finals in the 2018 NBA Playoffs at ORACLE Arena on May 26, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CA - MAY 26: Eric Gordon #10 of the Houston Rockets looks to pass against the Golden State Warriors during Game Six of the Western Conference Finals in the 2018 NBA Playoffs at ORACLE Arena on May 26, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /
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As the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors get ready to play the last game of what has been a thoroughly entertaining series, both teams need to identify which aspects of the game could potentially swing the balance in their favor. In the Warriors wins they have been able score efficiently and take care of the ball. For the Rockets, taking care of the ball has also been an issue in losses and getting opportunities at the charity stripe has been key in their wins.

Four Factors Adjusted Rating is a team rating system with a formula built on a regression with the inputs (the four factors) adjusted for strength of opponent. Dean Oliver is the pioneer of the four factors, and this metric is based on the foundation he built.The table below details the correlation between each team’s four factors adjusted for opponent strength and the respective Offensive/Defensive Four Factors Adjusted Rating for each team. All data is obtained from Cleaning the Glass.

For the Warriors and Rockets, turnovers weren’t more essential to either of these team’s offenses than the average team. Both of their defenses heavily relied on creating turnovers though, and that has been a huge factor in this series.

Every team relies on hitting shots to succeed offensively and opponents missing shots to succeed defensively, evidenced by the low standard deviations and high average correlation for effective field goal percentage at both ends. All other factors are clearly less important, but to varying degrees for different teams. Understanding which elements are vital to a team’s success is important in building the foundation of a game plan to beat them. For some teams, factors that aren’t even strengths relative to the rest of the league could be more crucial to success than a team that excels there.

The Warriors drop in effective field goal percentage would hurt any team’s chances of winning and is a point of needed improvement. Their inability to take care of the ball in these losses isn’t entirely surprising given Houston was slightly above average at forcing turnovers while they were below average at preventing them. While a lot of their troubles have been self-inflicted, Houston has had a hand in it as well.
The Warriors drop in effective field goal percentage would hurt any team’s chances of winning and is a point of needed improvement. Their inability to take care of the ball in these losses isn’t entirely surprising given Houston was slightly above average at forcing turnovers while they were below average at preventing them. While a lot of their troubles have been self-inflicted, Houston has had a hand in it as well. /

The Warriors ability to get to the free throw line was mildly important in the regular season, but doesn’t seem to be a driving force to their success in this series. Instead, keeping the Rockets off the line has been key to the Warriors defense with a correlation of .45, much higher than the regular season. The correlation between adjusted offensive rebound percentage and Offensive Four Factors Adjusted Rating in this series isn’t far off the regular season mark for the Warriors at .09, so the importance there is minimal in this series as well.

As referenced earlier, both of these teams relies on forcing the opposition into turnovers, but the Warriors were more reliant on it than the Rockets.

The length of the Warriors is overwhelming for a lot of teams with on-point weakside rotations to make it even tougher. A recurring theme in their wins against the Rockets has been this defensive presence.

The Rockets were the third-most reliant team on getting to the free throw line in the league during the regular season at over two standard deviations above average in correlation, and the drop to fourth-was large. In this series the contrast between their presence at the line in wins and losses is staggering. Preventing opponents from getting to the line has been almost as crucial for their defense this season, but this series it seems to be a consistent area of production for the Warriors no matter the game result.

James Harden will need to be aggressive attacking the rim and forcing contact if the Rockets want to have a good shot of winning Game 7. He and Gordon didn’t get the calls they would have liked in Game 6, but they can’t let that deter them from continuing to attack with the confidence that the whistle will come around.

Defensively the Rockets may need to up the pressure from the get-go to force the officials to ignore some contact later in the game on the basis of counting on not every foul being called. While an inordinate amount of turnovers in this game have been due more to sloppy play than a single defensive action, it is the culmination of defensive pressure throughout the game that can fatigue the opponent and cause that sloppy play. The Rockets will need to find a way to get the turnover battle closer to even if not win it.

Next: Inside Oracle Arena: The best homecourt advantage in the NBA

Both teams will need to zone in on the turnover battle in game 7 with the winner in that factor likely taking the game as well. Golden State can widen their margin for error by keeping Houston off the line, but that is a factor that teams have less control over on a game to game basis.

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