NBA Finals: Can the Cleveland Cavaliers really pull this off?

The Golden State Warriors are historically good. Do the Cleveland Cavaliers have a real shot in the NBA Finals?

The Cleveland Cavaliers will match up with the Golden State Warriors for the fourth consecutive year in the 2018 NBA Finals, and it’s no surprise that the Cavaliers are pretty much universally considered the underdogs in the series.

The Warriors have: Stephen Curry, one of the most prolific offensive players ever and a two-time NBA MVP; Kevin Durant, another one of the most prolific offensive players ever and an NBA MVP; Klay Thompson, maybe the best pure shooter ever who has scored more points in a single quarter than any player, ever; and Draymond Green, one of the more prolific defensive players ever who makes Golden State’s small-ball lineups possible.

The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have LeBron James. Unfortunately for Cleveland there is only one LeBron, and his company is not so prolific. Kevin Love is a very good big man, and Jeff Green and Kyle Korver are there too, and Tristan Thompson is good sometimes, and don’t forget J.R. Smith!

In short, there is a reason that despite LeBron proving once again that his peak is higher than that of any other player in the league, the Warriors are overwhelming favorites. A real question being asked about this series is if Cleveland even has a realistic chance to win barring some unprecedented and sad injury circumstances for the Warriors.

I think the Cavs do have a shot, even if Andre Iguodala gets healthy by the end of the series (he’s going to miss Game 1). LeBron is the biggest reason why, and although it probably goes without saying, his numbers this postseason are insane.

LeBron is leading all postseason scorers with 34.0 points per game while also posting 9.2 rebounds, 8.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.1 blocks each game. He’s shooting 54.2 percent from the field and cashing in on 34.4 percent of his 3-pointers. There is nothing King James cannot do on the basketball court.

Still, LeBron alone is not enough. He has lost two of the three match-ups he’s had against Golden State in the Finals, and the lone win came in large part due to Kyrie Irving having an incredible series in 2016. He will need help.

He just might get it. Jeff Green has been streaky as always, but his highs have been genuinely great in this postseason, especially in Cleveland’s series against the Boston Celtics. J.R. Smith, after having a horrid postseason previously, came alive a bit in his last few games as well.

Cavaliers head coach Ty Lue went to Kyle Korver less in Game 7 against Boston, but he might need his sharpshooting wing more if the Cavs are going to hang in there against Golden State. Korver leads all Cavaliers with a 3-point percentage of 44.9 in the postseason, thanks to his relentless scurrying around screens set off-ball by Love and other Cavs.

The Warriors are light on wings, especially with Iguodala hurt, so it sure would be nice for the Cavs to get something out of Rodney Hood. He might not play a single minute in the series, but if Lue and company could coax some solid 3-and-D play out of him it would help their chances significantly. They need dudes who can keep up with the Warriors on the perimeter.

Jordan Clarkson might not survive on defense against Golden State. His offense hasn’t been worthwhile these playoffs anyway, and the Cavs have been outscored by 2.5 points per 100 possessions in his postseason minutes. Only Hood has a worse plus-minus in the postseason.

Tristan Thompson will be hugely important in this series. It’s tempting to go small against Golden State as Houston did, but the Cavaliers can’t do that. They need Love and Thompson to play or they just don’t have the talent to handle Curry, Durant, Thompson and Green, and playing a fast-paced game is a disaster for the Cavs anyway.

The Warriors thrive on that. No team is more terrifying on fast breaks than Golden State, and with four stars they don’t need any one to exert all of their energy every single play. The Cavs need LeBron to be trying on both ends almost all of the time, and running him up and down the floor is simply untenable.

Cleveland’s only path to victory requires the Cavaliers to play a slow brand of basketball that features a whole lot of LeBron driving while shooters space the floor around him. Thompson will need to massacre the Warriors on the boards and give Cleveland plenty of extra possessions.

Math favors the Warriors in the 3-point battle, but the Cavs can use their own equation of simply having more shot attempts to try and balance that out. LeBron and Thompson both averaged more than 10 rebounds per game in Cleveland’s 2016 Finals win over the Warriors.

That means Cleveland has to take really good care of the basketball, and that Thompson, Love, and LeBron need to snag every single 50/50 rebound they possibly can. It still might not be enough.

The Cavaliers’ best-case scenario is Smith, Korver, and Green being efficient catch-and-shoot players from 3-point territory, LeBron being unguardable as he attacks the rim, Thompson and Love feasting on Golden State’s 14 centers, none of whom Steve Kerr seems to trust, and the Warriors turning the ball over more than Cleveland does.

The games need to be relatively low-scoring. Only the Indiana Pacers, Cleveland’s first-round opponent, has seen less possessions in their playoff games than the Cavs. This team is not equipped to run with Golden State. Only the Houston Rockets were.

Next: NBA Finals win probabilities

It’s been mentioned a lot already, but LeBron has to be seriously unbelievable. It’s not fair to expect this much from any player. ESPN’s Dave McMenamin reported that an unnamed assistant coach wouldn’t be surprised if LeBron averaged 50 (!!) points per game in this series. That seems hyperbolic, but obviously if LeBron isn’t stellar the Cavs are hopeless. He needs to continue defying Father Time.

If all of those things happen, the Cleveland Cavaliers might just have a shot at winning this thing. Or, maybe Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry combine for 80 points per game like LeBron and Kyrie did two years ago and none of it matters. That’s not out of the realm of possibility, but neither is Cleveland pulling off a truly incredible upset.