DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Wednesday, June 6

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game breakdown!  We have a nice sized 10 game slate tonight and there’s plenty to sift through.

Some days in daily fantasy you can’t miss and every play works out. Other days you’re lucky if you get a hit, let alone a home run. Last night was one of the latter nights for me as my offense crashed and burned in spectacular fashion. We had a 15 game slate and I was waving the white flag around 9:00 pm last night. About the only play I got right was Max Scherzer and let’s be honest – I don’t get credit for that. Hopefully the article yesterday helped people out there more than it worked for me. Enough bellyaching from me, let’s get to work!

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Pirates

Dodgers Probable Starter – Caleb Ferguson, LHP

Major League Debut

The Pittsburgh offense could very easily wind up being popular since Ferguson is making his debut. Not only that, he’s pitched exactly eight innings above AA ball this season. What was a little odd is his fly ball rate really jumped in AAA. Granted, it’s not a big sample at all but it should be noted. The Bucs have plenty of dangerous bats against a lefty pitcher on a good day and they are super cheap because they’ve been cold the past few days.

Whoever catches is a wonderful play, be it Francisco Cervelli or Elias Diaz. Past that, Starling Marte and Josh Harrison are under $3,000 on FanDuel. Marte especially has so much stolen base upside, I’m surprised he’s so cheap. This is a great buy low chance for the Pirates but they are plenty capable of leaving zeroes in your lineup. A major stack is best served as a GPP play and we’ll see how they fit with other offenses as far as cash games go. You may not need a ton of cheap plays because the most expensive pitcher is only $9,600 tonight.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Francisco Cervelli/Elias Diaz, Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Austin Meadows

Secondary Options – Sean Rodriguez

Pirates Probable Starter – Trevor Williams, RHP 

3.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .263 average, .314 wOBA, 38.4 fly ball rate and 22.6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .288 wOBA, 40.6 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard contact rate

I would expect a similar lineup tonight for the Dodgers as they had last night. Justin Turner will find his way back into the mix but LA has plenty of lefty hitters to stack up against Williams. Max Muncy and Yasmani Grandal would be in the mix but I would likely play Cervelli over either player. Joc Pederson is also still quite cheap and continues to hit righty pitching well. One of the better tournament options from this team is Cody Bellinger. He hit a home run yesterday and when he gets going, the homers come in bunches. His price will jump in a hurry if that bat comes to life.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger

Secondary Options – Yasmani Grandal, Max Muncy

Home Run Pick – Francisco Cervelli

DFS MLB – Yankees at Blue Jays

Yankees Probable Starter – Sonny Gray, RHP

5.50 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .226 average, .294 wOBA, 27.0 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .307 average, .390 wOBA, 37.4 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard contact rate

It’s not always the best idea to log through the game logs to pick you pitcher but Gray has got some wild results these past six starts. From his most recent start against the Orioles and then working backwards he’s scored 43, 17, 46, 6, 43 and 28 points. He’s been a roller coaster ride to say the least lately.

Gray is in a weird spot today as the heart of the Blue Jays order has switch hitters lined up. That would be good for Gray as he’s been way better against lefties in 2018. The bad news is the bottom part of the order are all righties. Players like Devon Travis, Randal Grichuk and Russell Martin aren’t the scariest but Gray has scuffled bad enough with righties to worry me. I think the two best hitters from this squad are Teoscar Hernandez and Kevin Pillar. I won’t be using Gray even in tournaments.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Teoscar Hernandez, Kevin Pillar

Secondary Options – Devon Travis, Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Sam Gaviglio, RHP 

3.32 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 25.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .263 average, .311 wOBA, 34.4 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .182 average, .276 wOBA, 37.0 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard contact rate

The Yankees came through late last night to an extent. It was the lesser known players rather than the big guns and Gaviglio actually pitched alright in Boston in his last start. The fly ball rate is average and the strikeout rate is actually good. The lefty hitters stand out in the splits and I think those hitters might be the ones I have exposure to. I would love to play Gleyber Torres but I cannot pay his rate when he bats ninth in the lineup. Brett Gardner and Greg Bird are the plays I have the most interest out of this lineup. Bird is coming up fast in price and this could be one of the last times to play him comfortably. Brett Gardner is still easily affordable. I could be wrong but I think the Yankees could mostly disappoint tonight.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Greg Bird, Brett Gardner

Secondary Options – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Home Run Pick – Teoscar Hernandez

DFS MLB – Tigers at Red Sox

Tigers Probable Starter – Blaine Hardy, LHP

2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .208 average, .282 wOBA, 57.9 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .287 wOBA, 45.5 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

If you ever had in mind a total shot in the dark pitcher that could wind up with negative points or help finish up high in a tournament, it’s Blaine Hardy. I know, it sounds crazy but hear me out. First, nobody is going to play him and I mean nobody. Frankly, the fly ball rate and hard contact given up go against what I would normally play. The Red Sox are without Mookie Betts, which doesn’t hurt when considering a pitcher. J.D. Martinez is carrying a 34 percent strikeout rate against lefties with a .332 wOBA. Boston as a team ranks 27th in OPS, ISO and wOBA and on top of that, they strikeout at the seventh highest rate in baseball. Hardy has pitched 13 innings his last two starts and only given up three earned runs. He’s $5,900 on FanDuel and you can play any hitter you want with him.

Now that the crazy play of the night is out of the way, Boston has plenty of bats that we should be taking a look at. Martinez destroyed lefties last season and he’s the first player in baseball this year to reach 20 home runs. I would also look towards Xander Bogaerts and Brock Holt to go with Martinez. What is also interesting is the Tigers don’t have a lefty in the bullpen. If Hardy goes out early, it’s righty pitching the rest of the way.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Options – Brock Holt, Mitch Moreland

Red Sox Probable Starter – Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP

3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 28.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .132 average, .257 wOBA, 50.0 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .297 wOBA, 41.7 fly ball rate and 27.8 hard contact rate

This is not a spot where I’m going to ride with Rodriguez. He typically struggles to hit the quality start bonus and that’s a major issue. Here’s the other thing working against Rodriguez tonight – the Tigers are one of the best offenses against lefties in baseball. I think that the only player that is cash viable is likely James McCann and that’s because he’s so cheap. Hitters like Nicholas Castellanos are very expensive given a pitcher that can strikeout a ton of batters. Jeimer Candelario would be interesting if he’s in the lineup but he left the game yesterday with a finger injury. This is a better spot to stack the Tigers than play a one-off and take a zero.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – James McCann, John Hicks

Secondary Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario

Home Run Pick – James McCann

DFS MLB – Rockies at Reds

Rockies Probable Starter – Jon Gray, RHP

5.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 26.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .284 average, .358 wOBA, 30.1 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .289 average, .326 wOBA, 25.8 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard contact rate

It’s hard to suggest playing Jon Gray in Cincinnati even though the Reds are average or worse in a lot of offensive categories. The Reds are also 20th as a team in strikeout rate so it’s hard to see Gray having a high ceiling. I’d generally side with the best hitters from the Reds if I’m playing any so Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett would be my preferred plays from this game. You could talk me into taking a shot on Jesse Winker if you need the savings and he plays. Gray pitched against the Reds recently and scored a 36. That’s not terrible but it’s not the type of performance I really want to put in my lineup.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Options – Jesse Winker

Reds Probable Starter – Sal Romano, RHP

6.00 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 15.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .333 average, .405 wOBA, 32.7 fly ball rate and 37. 6 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .218 average, .316 wOBA, 35.4 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard contact rate

I learned my lesson last night when Carlos Gonzalez was very highly owned as he scored close to 40 FanDuel points. He’s still too cheap given the matchup and Romano’s struggles against lefties. Fantasy players who have been around for while know that CarGo can carry a team when he gets hot. Charlie Blackmon also continues to see his price drop and it’s just a matter of time before he gets his bat going in the right direction. You can play any Rockies bat in this environment as they showed last night when they approached double digits in runs.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

ELite Options – Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Options – Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra

Home Run Pick – Scooter Gennett

DFS MLB – A’s at Rangers

A’s Probable Starter – Daniel Mengden, RHP

.291 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 16.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .194 average, .211 wOBA, 42.7 fly ball rate and 39.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .302 wOBA, 28.6 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

Especially on this style of slate, Mengden is firmly in play. I don’t really like saying that because I’m afraid that Mengden will blow up at any time. The Rangers rate very poorly against righty pitching and the strikeout rate is second behind just the Phillies. There is some danger here because even though the average and wOBA look really good against lefties, the fly ball and hard contact rate do not. You could very easily stack up Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo and Joey Gallo and they could ghost you or go bananas. That’s kind of where I’m at with the Rangers offense. The best play is to stack them but Mengden has shown he can be very effective. I would reserve this side of the game for mostly GPP entries tonight.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo

Secondary Options – Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Adrian Beltre

Rangers Probable Starter – Bartolo Colon, RHP

4.21 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 16.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .214 average, .267 wOBA, 33.7 fly ball rate and 39.5 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .366 wOBA, 30.2 fly ball rate and 45.2 hard contact rate

It’s always weird to try and figure out what to do when Colon is on the mound. He doesn’t have the upside to want to start him but he’s got the unnatural ability to troll your hitters that you deploy against him. He uses an 88 MPH fastball that may as well be a changeup. Colon can normally put the ball pretty close to where he wants it and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was at least moderately effective. I think the hitter I have the most interest in is Khris Davis because he hits righties well and Colon is reverse splits. I’m not terribly sure I’m going all out on the A’s tonight. Matt Chapman has been a little cold lately but he’s a rock solid option t a low price as well. Much like the Yankees, I think the A’s might underwhelm a little bit tonight.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Khris Davis, Matt Chapman

Secondary Options – Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson

Home Run Pick – Joey Gallo

DFS MLB – Phillies at Cubs

Phillies Probable Starter – Aaron Nola, RHP

2.18 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 24.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .207 average, .240 wOBA, 25.2 fly ball rate and 20.9 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .188 average, .225 wOBA, 33.3 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard contact rate

Nola is without a doubt the most talented pitcher available on the slate but it’s kind of a hard sell to start him in Wrigley Field. The Cubbies are in the top 10 in many offensive categories and they don’t strikeout a ton either. I don’t think I’ll go with Nola in cash but it’s still possible. I just can’t make heads or tails of this game and that means I likely won’t pay up for Nola and I won’t pay up for hitters against him. If we were looking at just one player, I’d gamble on Kris Bryant. He’s so far past due for a home run it’s not even funny and Nola gives up more fly balls to righties than lefties.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

Cubs Probable Starter – Jose Quintana, LHP

4.30 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .186 average, .255 wOBA, 27.0 fly ball rate and 24.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .258 average, .352 wOBA, 37.8 fly ball rate and 40.6 hard contact rate

I actually played Quintana in his last start because he pitched against the Mets because they are the worst team in baseball against lefties. He was very good and he does draw another favorable matchup. Philly is 23rd or worse in average, OPS, ISO and wOBA against lefties and are missing their best hitter is Rhys Hoskins. Having said all of that, I’m not sure I’m on board with Quintana. He’s just been so wildly inconsistent it’s difficult to trust him in this spot. You’re definitely attacking him with righty bats tonight if you don’t believe in him.

Maikel Franco and Aaron Altherr are really good ways to get exposure to Phillies right handers and especially Altherr is minimum price on FanDuel. Franco will likely go very under the radar here because a lot of people will play Matt Chapman from the A’s or Adrian Beltre from the Rangers.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco

Secondary Options – Cesar Hernandez

Home Run Pick – Maikel Franco

DFS MLB – White Sox at Twins

White Sox Probable Starter – Hector Santiago, LHP

5.10 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .317 average, .418 wOBA, 31.3 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .364 wOBA, 58.0 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard contact rate

If these reverse splits hold up, Santiago draws a really terrible matchup because the Twins have some lefties that can hurt him in addition to power righties. The club leader in wOBA against lefty pitching is Max Kepler with .425 and Kepler is left handed. Eddie Rosario is scorching hot but I have a little bit of a hard time paying a premium for him coming off a three homer day on Sunday. Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano are going to be very popular tonight against a lefty that is giving up a 58 percent fly rate and it’s tough to really argue that. The Twins are in one of the best spots for an offense on the slate and the other side of this game isn’t that different.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Secondary Options – Eduardo Escobar

Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP

4.14 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 22.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .236 average, .366 wOBA, 53.1 fly ball rate and 35.4 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .339 wOBA, 55.3 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard contact rate

It’s surprising that Odorizzi has that good of an ERA with the amount of fly balls he gives up. The splits really aren’t that drastic so we can fire away with hitters. The one that stands out is Yoan Moncada, who is better against righties and has a massive amount of power in his bat. I think I’d rather play Moncada than Brian Dozier at the same position for less salary. The White Sox don’t have a ton of great hitters and they do strikeout more than their fair share so there’s some risk here. I usually only play Jose Abreu when he draws a lefty but I can’t blame you if you want to chase the fly balls. This game is one of the best options for a full on game stack tonight but I like the Twins a good bit more than the White Sox offense.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Options – Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka, Jose Rondon

Home Run Pick – Yoan Moncada and Max Kepler

DFS MLB – Mariners at Astros

Mariners Probable Starter – Wade LeBlanc, LHP

2.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .262 average, .330 wOBA, 44.1 fly ball rate and 25.1 hard contact rate

Vs RHH –  .229 average, .265 wOBA, 44.7 fly ball rate and 27.2 hard contact rate

LeBlanc is actually having a very solid season so far for the Mariners mostly because he’s been able to limit the hard contact against him. He’s not striking out a lot of batters and I wouldn’t play him today but I wouldn’t;t go crazy with the Astros. Of course, they could smash any pitcher in any game but LeBlanc might be serviceable here. I think I’m going to be mostly off of the Astros big names tonight. George Springer and Carlos Correa would be the ones I would gravitate towards and I’m definitely interested in my boy Max Stassi. In 43 at-bats this season against lefties, he has a .456 wOBA. Even though LeBlanc has been good, he can still give up a couple runs here.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – George Springer, Carlos Correa, Max Stassi

Secondary Options – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Astors Probable Starter – Lance McCullers, RHP

3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 25.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .173 average, .269 wOBA, 30.0 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .309 wOBA, 25.6 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

This side of the game is a little bit of a tough nut to crack because McCullers can be inconsistent. He could go out and shut down the Mariners for seven string innings tonight or be out by the fourth and neither outcome would be surprising. Seattle’s lineup did just go off for seven runs last night but they are a little weaker than the start of the year. Robinson Cano is suspended and Mitch Haniger has come back to mere mortal levels. Segura is the only active Mariner who rates well against the curveball, which is the main weapon for McCullers.  I think my biggest fears are the low strikeout rate for the Mariners as a team and the fact that Dee Gordon and Jean Segura could wreck the base paths if they get on. I won’t be playing any Mariners hitters this evening as I respect what McCullers can do.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz

Home Run Pick – George Springer

DFS MLB – Marlins at Cardinals

Marlins Probable Starter – Wei-Yen Chen, LHP 

6.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .326 wOBA, 40.0 fly ball rate and 35.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .253 average, .389 wOBA, 55.4 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard contact rate

Maybe this ends up burning me but I think the Cardinals might be the premier stack on this slate. Being wary about the sample size, they have four hitters with a boba over .400 against lefty pitching in 2018 and all four of them are elite plays tonight. Tommy Pham is the highest profile player but he’s lower in wOBA than Harrison Bader, Yario Munoz and Jedd Gyorko. Please, Mike Matheny, I’m begging you. Put Gyorko in the lineup. Every time I want to play him, he winds up sitting. The matchup is just too good for me to want to pass on tonight. The great thing about the Cardinals bats on fanDuel is Pham is the most expensive at $3,500. The other four targets are all under $3,000 which lets you build your lineup with some other big boppers.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Tommy Pham, Jedd Gyorko, Harrison Bader, Yario Munoz

Secondary Options – Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez

Cardinals Probable Starter – Jack Flaherty, RHP

2.62 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 26.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .291 wOBA, 38.3 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .266 wOBA, 46.3 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard contact rate

If you’re playing on FanDuel tonight, I think we’ve found your cash game pitcher. The Marlins offense has been a thorn in my side all season because they always seem to do damage when I play a pitcher against them. $7,800 for a pitcher that has the talent Flaherty does and should get a win bonus is just too cheap to pass up. I almost never play any Marlins hitters unless they’re in just a glorious spot and tonight certainly doesn’t qualify. Flaherty is likely just happy he’s not pitching against the Pirates offense tonight because he had seen them so often lately.

Marline Hitters to Target 

Elite Options -None

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour

Home Run Pick – Tommy Pham and Jedd Gyorko if he plays

DFS MLB – Royals at Angels

Royals Probable Starter – Ian Kennedy, RHP

6.08 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .295 average, .384 wOBA, 46.3 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .299 average, .367 wOBA, 36.4 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard contact rate

If you need a good laugh, just remember that the Royals still owe Ian Kennedy another $28 million after this season. What a terrible contract that’s turning out to be. Anyways, it’s bombs away with the top of this Angels lineup tonight. Kennedy got blitzed for eight runs against Oakland in his lasts start and relies heavily on his fastball. Mike Trout just happens to be the second best fastball hitter in baseball this season and is playing very well coming into tonight. He’s not even going to be that hard to fit tonight given the pitching options and some great value elsewhere. Past Trout, Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler would be my next picks. Kinsler has struggled with the fastball this season but that’s not usually the case. I wonder if since this game is the lone late game it goes under owned. Trout is bordering on a lock even at his salary tonight.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout, Justin Upton

Secondary Options – Ian Kinsler

Angels Probable Starter – Shohei Ohtani, RHP

3.18 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 31.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .181 average, .238 wOBA, 30.0 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard contact rate

Vs RHH – .207 average, .288 wOBA, 45.6 fly ball rate and 38.6 hard contact rate

Ohtani is certainly in consideration tonight but he’s best served as a GPP option. The Royals just do not strikeout a lot as a team. I would still generally lean Ohtani here but the ceiling might not be as high as it would normally be with him. The one hitter that have at least a little concern with is Jorge Soler just because Ohtani gives up a healthy amount of fly balls and Soler has the power to make him pay. Soler could also strikeout four times so the whole side of this game is GPP only. I wouldn’t even worry about forcing Royals hitters into any lineup.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield

Home Run Pick – Mike Trout

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup 

P – Jack Flaherty 

C/1B – Francisco Cervelli 

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2B – Jedd Gyorko

3B – Maikel Franco 

SS – Yario Munoz

OF – Charlie Blackmon, Mike Trout, Tommy Pham 

Utility – Carlos Gonzalez

The possibilities are really endless tonight since there’s not a slam dunk pitching option. Last night saw Max Scherzer at around 80 percent owned in cash games and that definitely won’t be the case tonight. Taking advantage of the cheap Cardinal bats in a few spots allows us to build a killer outfield. Comfortably having Blackmon and Trout in the same lineup doesn’t happen often but its pretty feasible tonight. Carlos Gonzalez had a big game last night and could be in line for another one tonight with Sal Romano pitching. We take a one off in Cervelli and Franco to finish things off with the sample. I will say the one thing I don’t care for in this one is there’s no Twins or White Sox. It’s possible to go back and tweak it to move things around while leaving the core intact.

The Core – Mike Trout, Carlos Gonzalez, Jedd Gyorko

Stacks to Consider – Cardinals(vs Miami), Twins and White Sox game stack, Angels(vs Kansas City), Red Sox(vs Detroit), Yankees(at Toronto)

Next: DFS MLB Picks and Pivots

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.