MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Wednesday evening, June 6th

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – June 6 Main Slate

Welcome to the inaugural edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal will be to provide you with at least one selection that would be considered a “value play” relative to the top-priced players at each position for that particular slate.

Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). There are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note them as a “XYZ site-only special” underneath the main selection.
On occasions when FanDuel lists a player at a different position than the other sites, I’ll note it in the player’s entry.
Depending on the slate, I may recommend only one outfield value option. Again, when sticking to the true spirit of what constitutes a viable value play, the pool of candidates can narrow pretty quickly. I don’t want to forcibly recommend three players in the outfield when I only feel one might be worthwhile, as this would be a disservice. However, if there’s more than one candidate I feel comfortable with, I’ll certainly deviate from that model.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.

With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved on Wednesday evening’s MLB slate!:

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Pitcher

Hector Santiago, CWS at MIN- Yahoo ($25)/ FanDuel ($5,800)/ DraftKings ($5,300)/ FantasyDraft ($10,300)

Remember my note above about there sometimes being a healthy risk component to value plays? We’ll waste no time testing that theory!

Santiago has embodied volatility thus far this season while shuttling between the bullpen and starting rotation. However, on paper, he’s got enough potentially in his favor Wednesday to make him a tournament flyer worthy of consideration.

The first is his price, which is significantly depressed across the board. The second is matchup, as the Twins come in sporting an anemic .284 wOBA and .116 ISO over 145 plate appearances against southpaws at Target Field over the last month of play, along with a minuscule 4.9 percent HR/FB rate. The latter figure potentially bodes well for Santiago, who does have a tendency to allow the ball to get in the air at an above-average clip.

Minnesota has also struck out 22.8 percent of the time versus lefties at home over the aforementioned one-month sample, and at an even more bloated 26.8 percent rate for the season, second highest in the majors. Although Santiago’s 8.9 percent swinging strike rate isn’t exactly elite, it does qualify as a career high for the veteran.

Again, while there’s no shortage of risk here, Santiago’s price is also such that he doesn’t need to provide a massive return to make him a worthwhile roster Wednesday. The fact that he’ll undoubtedly be low-owned and pitching against a former team in a park he has familiarity with also furthers his case to an extent.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Catcher

Jonathan Lucroy, OAK at TEX- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,000)/ DraftKings ($2,900)/ FantasyDraft ($5,900)

Lucroy surprisingly checks in at bare minimum on FanDuel and very reasonably priced everywhere else, making him an intriguing catcher option in a hitter’s ballpark, against a former team and facing an inconsistent veteran arm.

To begin with, Lucroy has some skins on the wall against Rangers starter Bartolo Colon, who he owns a .455 average against over 11 career plate appearances. While all five of his hits in that sample have been singles, Lucroy could find himself in the perfect storm to break that trend Wednesday.

The veteran backstop has surprisingly tallied just one home run thus far this season, but he’s actually making hard contact against righties at an impressive 43.2 percent rate. He also owns a robust 24.5 percent line drive rate versus right-handers, along with a .342 wOBA that rises to .355 when facing them on the road.

Meanwhile, the majority of Colon’s troubles have come against righty bats, who’ve touched him up to the tune of a .336 wOBA (including .345 at home), including 12 home runs. Right-handed hitters are also making hard contact against him at a 45.2 percent clip, a figure that tempts fate in the hitters’ environment within which he pitches Wednesday.

Also consider: James McCann, DET at BOS- Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($2,100)/ DraftKings ($3,100)/FantasyDraft ($5,600)

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – First Base

Victor Martinez, DET at BOS- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,200)/ DraftKings ($3,100)/ FantasyDraft ($5,500)

Martinez is another veteran with some upside that sports an especially reduced price tag Wednesday, and that’s likely to be even more low-owned than usual given the perceived tough matchup against Red Sox southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez.

The switch-hitting Martinez has been a much better hitter away from home, and he sports an impressive .337 wOBA (including two homers), .286 ISO and 31.6 percent hard contact rate versus southpaws on the road in a 23-plate-appearance sample thus far. He’s enjoyed hitting at Fenway over the last three seasons as well, as evidenced by his .303 average and .425 OBP over 40 plate appearances during that stretch.

Rodriguez hasn’t run into too many problems this season, but when he has, they’ve typically come against right-handed hitters, particularly at home. The emerging lefty checks in allowing a .317 wOBA, including three home runs, to righty bats at Fenway, and sports an unsightly 4.9 K/BB against that handedness at home as well.

Yahoo-only special: Miguel Cabrera– DET at BOS ($13)

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Second Base

Brock Holt, BOS vs. DET- Yahoo ($11)/ FanDuel ($2,800) *listed as shortstop*/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($6,500)

Holt shapes up as an interesting value candidate on the other side of the Red Sox-Tigers matchup, especially considering many may be scared off by the same-handed matchup against Detroit starter Blaine Hardy.

However, Holt has traditionally brushed off such lefty-on-lefty encounters throughout his career, and he’s already on the same path this season. The veteran infielder owns a .556 average and .559 wOBA in a small sample of 11 plate appearances versus southpaws, but the .322 wOBA (including .335 at home) that he sports against lefties over his career helps corroborate his effectiveness.

Hardy’s numbers against left-handed hitters look impressive overall, but there some vulnerability there when digging deeper. The 5.19 xFIP and 42.1 percent hard contact rate he’s allowed to that handedness are two such indicators, and he’s undoubtedly also been bailed out at times by a .222 BABIP versus lefty bats, including an even more unsustainable .125 figure when facing them on the road.

Finally, there’s some synergy with regards to pitch splits for Holt as well, as the .351 wOBA that Hardy allows on his trademark four-seam fastball dovetails well for fantasy purposes with the .428 wOBA that Holt has generated against the pitch over 153 instances in which he’s seen it this season.

Yahoo-only specials: Jed Lowrie– OAK at TEX ($12)/ Didi Gregorius, NYY at TOR ($10)

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Third Base

Adrian Beltre, TEX vs. OAK – Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,700)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,200)

Beltre’s price seems out of whack — in a good way for our purposes — with his upside and production, making it a good night to pounce on him at what should be a relatively low level of ownership versus the surging Daniel Mengden.

For starters, the veteran slugger has solved earlier versions of the A’s starter pretty thoroughly, as he sports a .600 average over 11 career encounters with him. While the relevance of that success may be somewhat diminished due to Mengden’s notable improvement this season, it’s a level of dominance that’s at least worth noting.

Beltre also checks in thriving versus righties in trademark fashion, as he sports a .302 average and .343 wOBA versus that handedness, with the latter figure rising to .451 at home. It’s certainly also worth noting that Beltre has made hard contact at a 42.9-percent clip versus right-handed pitching at Globe Life Park.

Mengden boasts sharp numbers overall versus both handedness of hitter, but his 4.41 xFIP allowed to rightly bats on the road — along with a 23.5 percent line drive rate and 33.3 percent hard contact rate surrendered to that handedness overall — hints at some possible regression.

Beltre has also hit Mengden’s most frequently-used pitch, the four-seam fastball (which he’s allowing a bloated 35.8 percent line drive rate on), extremely well, as evidenced by a .378 career wOBA that includes a .333 figure this season.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Shortstop

Yairo Munoz, STL vs. MIA- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/ DraftKings ($3,900)/ FantasyDraft ($7,500)

Munoz has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals in the wake of Paul DeJong‘s hand injury, as he’s slashing a solid .295/.348/.426 over his first 66 plate appearances. As those numbers imply, he’s hit both handedness of pitcher well, and he owns a .447 wOBA (including both of his homers) and 42.9 percent hard contact rate over his first 17 plate appearances against southpaws.

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Meanwhile, Marlins starter Wei-Yin Chen has traversed a rocky road versus right-handed hitters already, allowing a .389 wOBA (including six homers), 7.09 xFIP, 2.35 HR/9 and 30.8 percent hard contact rate to that handedness over a 108-batter sample. He’s also yielding an elevated 55.4 percent flyball rate to righty bats, a figure that could spell trouble against Munoz’s relatively extreme flyball splits that sees him put the ball in the air 42.9 percent of the time versus lefties (as compared to 18.2 percent against righties).

Two other factors stand out in Munoz’s favor Wednesday, those being pitch-type splits and the Marlins bullpen.

Munoz has so far feasted on two pitches — the slider and change-up –that Chen especially has trouble with, posting a .362 wOBA when seeing the former, and an astronomical .909 wOBA against the latter in a small 13-pitch sample. Conversely, Chen has surrendered a .464 wOBA in the 82 instances he’s thrown the slider (his second-most-used pitch), and a .496 wOBA on the 43 occasions he’s used the changeup.

Additionally, Marlins relievers have allowed a 6.09ERA, .350 wOBA, 16 extra-base hits (five doubles, one triple, three homers) and a 35.3 percent hard contact rate to the 87 righty hitters they’ve faced at home over the last month.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Outfield

Kevin Pillar, TOR vs. NYY – Yahoo ($7)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/ DraftKings ($3,400)/ FantasyDraft ($6,800)

Pillar sports a minimum price on Yahoo and sets up as a highly affordable option elsewhere as well, putting him squarely in play against the inconsistent Sonny Gray, who he’s compiled a .300 average against over 21 career plate appearances.

Pillar’s best split this season has been against right-handed pitching at Rogers Centre, where he’s posted a .323 average, 11 extra-base hits (eight doubles, three homers), a .400 wOBA, a .262 ISO, a 27.8 percent line drive rate and a 33.3 percent hard contact rate against that handedness. He’s also putting the screws to the ball at a much more frequent rate overall than ever before in his career, as his cumulative 38.0 percent hard contact rate thus far in 2018 blows away the sub-30-percent figures he’d posted in his previous four big-league seasons.

Gray has had plenty of trouble against righty bats, allowing a .390 wOBA (including six homers), 4.97 xFIP and 34.3 percent hard contact rate to that handedness. While a lot of his problems have come at Yankee Stadium, it’s worth noting that Gray has pitched to some contact in his two previous starts against the Blue Jays this season (one home, one away), allowing six earned runs on 12 hits over 7.1 innings.

Finally, Gray’s issues when using his trademark four-seam fastball (.419 wOBA, .218 ISO allowed) could certainly spell trouble when factoring in Pillar’s success against it (.356 wOBA, .214 ISO, 36.7 percent line drive rate).

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