DraftKings MLB Picks June 8: Which ace should we use?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks June 8: Which ace should we use?
Only the Pirates and Cubs matinee at Wrigley is out of the main DraftKings tournament tonight. There are a few aces kicking off the weekend tonight. Which ones are worth it? Can we afford two? There are a lot of ways to approach this, including a strong middle tier. We have some tough decisions to make tonight.
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The only chance of rain is in Cincinnati, but it should only cause a delay at the beginning, if at all.
The wind is mostly calm tonight, but there is about a 12 mph wind blowing in at Arlington, and from right in Minneapolis.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. Stacking against a bad pitcher is always a good idea!
For you first time players, if you would like a free $10 showdown ticket for MLB or the NBA, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
Justin Verlander ($12,400): The Rangers are only hitting .187 off of Verlander in 246 at bats with six homers, 17 runs, and 84 strikeouts. Those are pretty huge numbers for Verlander. Verlander has already faced Texas three times this year, averaging 27.3 DraftKings points in those three starts. That would suggest that Verlander is worth the money. However, hitting conditions are favorable in Arlington, and there are several good options below him. Fading Verlander is not a bad idea.
Trevor Bauer ($11,800): Bauer has already faced Detroit twice this year. He has compiled 63.4 DraftKings points in those two starts. However, the Tigers are still hitting a robust .290 against Bauer with 22 runs in 145 at bats. Bauer is having a breakout season, and is seems as though he has broken those chains that the Tigers had on him. Bauer only owns 29 strikeouts in those 145 at bats, but 17 have come this year. I think I’ll trust this year’s numbers against the Tigers a little more and lean towards Bauer as a strong pick.
Chris Sale ($11,100): I will start this off by saying this is either going to be an absolutely brilliant start by Sale or a total disaster. I don’t think there is an in between. Sale gave up five runs in five innings in his only start against his former team, but he did pick up ten strikeouts. The White Sox are going to strike out a lot. The question is whether they will pick up any runs in this one or not. For the money, I’m not sold on Sale here. He is a perfectly acceptable fade for me.
Stephen Strasburg ($10,800): The Giants are only hitting .239 against Strasburg in 117 at bats with just one homer, eight runs, and 35 strikeouts. Strasburg’s numbers have been better than his career numbers across the board this year, so it stands to reason that he may be able to improve on his stats against the Giants as well. This offense has been mostly toothless with Belt sidelined. I like the potential here at a very reasonable price.
Middle Tier:
Masahiro Tanaka ($9,500): The Mets are only hitting .225 against Tanaka in 71 at bats, but they have scored eight runs. That said, those stats are severely skewed by Bautista’s lifetime totals. If you take that out, the Mets are just 6-32(.188) with a homer and two runs to go with nine strikeouts. Bautista has shown no signs of going back to his old self, so Tanaka looks like a strong option here tonight.
Caleb Smith ($9,100): Smith pitched very well against the Padres earlier this year. Smith picked up 22.8 DraftKings points in San Diego. He should be somewhere in that neighborhood tonight, especially when you consider that Smith’s ERA is a run lower at home this year. There is serious potential here tonight, but the price is a little off-putting. You would have to stack cheap or fade the upper tier of pitching to make this work.
Vince Velasquez ($8,300): Velasquez is pitching well lately, having allowed less than three runs in every one of his May starts. That said, he has struggled at home this year. Milwaukee’s offense isn’t all that great, and Velasquez can rack up the strikeouts in a hurry. I like the strikeout potential against the free swinging Brewers. That should bail Velasquez out if he has a subpar start.
Jakob Junis ($8,100): Junis has held the A’s to a .190 average in 42 at bats with 11 strikeouts and three runs. Those are good numbers for this price range. Junis picked up 23.7 DraftKings points against Oakland in his last start. Now he gets to take them on in a more pitcher friendly venue. There is good value here.
Bargain Pitchers:
Garrett Richards ($7,700): The Twins are only hitting .227 off of Richards in 75 at bats with two homers, six runs, and a respectable 17 strikeouts. Richards isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher anyway, so this is about what you can expect. He is a solid low range option against an all or nothing offense.
Marco Gonzales ($7,100): I will confess that I really like Gonzales at this price. He picked up 24.2 DraftKings points against the Rays in Seattle earlier this year. Tampa isn’t as much of a pitcher’s park, but I don’t see this offense doing much damage. They couldn’t even get to Mike Leake last night, who has been hit hard this year. The home/road splits for Gonzales are nearly even, so he has been pitching well everywhere. Expect that to continue tonight.
Andrew Cashner ($4,600): Cashner had his best start of the season against this same Blue Jays team back in April. The 23 DraftKings points he racked up in that game stand as the beacon of what could be. Most of the rest of Cashner’s starts haven’t been good. There is potential here, especially with Josh Donaldson still out. The healthy Jays are only hitting .231 against Cashner in 65 at bats with 18 strikeouts. The Jays have hit four homers, but have only scored six runs. Don’t expect a huge score from Cashner, but if we pick up in the high teens for this price, that’s a solid return.
Washington Nationals vs. Andrew Suarez:
Suarez has really struggled on the road this year. His road ERA is 6.38 in four starts. I’m a big fan of Trea Turner and Rendon here. Bryce Harper is always worth a look, even with a lefty on the mound. We can round this stack out with a cheap Michael Taylor and Mark Reynolds. This is a pretty cheap stack, and a suitable alternative to the Coors chalk.
Cleveland Indians vs. Michael Fulmer:
Fulmer has had a disappointing season, and a play date with Cleveland isn’t going to help matters any. The Tribe are hitting .287 with three homers and 17 runs in 101 at bats against Fulmer with just 13 strikeouts. That means Cleveland is putting a lot of balls into play, which is never ideal. Especially when you have a struggling pitcher on the mound. Jose Ramirez has two of those four homers and has driven in four. Lindor has the other homer and also has four RBI off of Fulmer. Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, and Edwin are all hitting better than .250 off of Fulmer as well.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Matt Harvey:
The Cardinals had good numbers against Harvey even before the disaster that has been his 2018 campaign. The Cards are hitting .274 against Harvey, but they have not homered off of him yet. I think that changes here. Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, and Marcell Ozuna are all threats to leave that park. Jose Martinez and Jedd Gyorko are decent options as well for the power potential.
Miami Marlins vs. Eric Lauer:
Yeah, it’s a small sample, but the Marlins torched Lauer earlier this year. They lit him up for five runs in just 2.1 innings, and that was in San Diego! Yadiel Rivera and Cameron Maybin each drove in two for the Fish. Starlin Castro scored twice and drove in the other one. Justin Bour and Brian Anderson also scored runs in that game. Most of this team is in play tonight for a super cheap stack option!
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays bullpen:
This “opener” business has gotten out of hand, and for you baseball purists that absolutely despise this practice, any traction that it gained is quickly losing ground. The Rays’ openers have been bombarded lately, with a couple not even making it out of their scheduled inning. I would think that Wilmer Font may go about two innings, but even if he does, I still like the Mariners against him. Ryon Healy has homered off of Font already. Segura is in play leading off, and Nelson Cruz with the massive power potential is always in play. Denard Span homered in his return to Tampa last night, and he is cheap enough to roll out there to see if he can do it again.
Houston Astros vs. Doug Fister:
Fister has lived dangerously for long enough this year. Someone is going to get him. It could be here against the Astros. Houston is hitting .263 with two homers and ten RBI in 80 at bats against Fister. Josh Reddick looks really good here. Evan Gattis and Alex Bregman have the two homers. And of course, you really can’t go wrong with Correa, Altuve, or Springer if you can afford them.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Lance Lynn:
The Angels have six homers and 11 runs in just 92 at bats against Lynn, but they are only hitting .196 off of him. Well, we are here for the homers, right? Zack Cozart has three of them even though he is just 7-42 lifetime against Lynn. Justin Upton, Luis Valbuena, and Chris Young have all homered off of Lynn as well. And we can play Mike Trout just because we don’t really need a reason to use him.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. German Marquez:
Arizona is hitting .329 against Marquez with four homers and 14 runs in 85 at bats. Goldy has two of those homers with four RBI. Chris Owings and Ketel Marte come cheap, and they both have homered off of Marquez. Lamb, Peralta, and Nick Ahmed are all worth a look here as well.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Brandon McCarthy:
Look out, the Dodgers are getting hot! That’s bad news for McCarthy. Puig is the only Dodger to homer off of McCarthy so far, but only a couple of them have faced him. Matt Kemp is still rolling, and is definitely a part of this stack. I’m also a big fan of Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger here. Even Grandal and Joc Pederson are worth a look here.
Next: Other notes for 6-8
Top Tier:
I’m on the fence about Happ. He dominated the Orioles earlier this year, but with all of these right handed bats, it makes me nervous. Also, with his price at $10,400, that’s just $400 less than Strasburg. That looks too high to me, especially considering the Orioles have hit nine homers off of Happ in 203 at bats. Manny Machado has three of them. Adam Jones and Chris Davis have two. I would be judicial with my Orioles pick because I don’t expect Happ to have a bad outing, but I don’t expect him to live up to the price either.
There is no part of me that trust Zack Greinke tonight. Colorado has smacked 11 homers off of him in 307 at bats. Trevor Story is 8-26(.308) with four homers and nine RBI against Greinke, and a bulk of that damage was done at Chase Field. CarGo is 15-45 with five homers and seven RBI against Greinke. Blackmon and LeMahieu have also homered off of Greinke in their careers.
Dylan Covey has been surprisingly good in his two starts, but I still don’t trust him against Boston. I will respect his start by not stacking against him, but I will want healthy doses of J.D. Martinez and Benintendi. Maybe a little Xander as well.
I’m going to enjoy Giancarlo Stanton at this discount. Stanton is 9-22(.409) with three walks, a double, four homers, and eight RBI off of Jacob deGrom. He even has a steal off of deGrom! Gary Sanchez has also taken deGrom deep, and Aaron Judge is always worth a look. There is way too much firepower for me to trust deGrom here. The Yankees are hitting a robust .328 off of him with five homers and 11 runs in just 61 at bats.
I am electing to avoid the Walker Buehler situation. The Braves are solid, but so is Buehler. If I touch this in any way, it will be with Freddie Freeman and nothing else.
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Middle Tier:
Trevor Bauer has dominated Detroit this year, but there are a couple of guys that could deserve a look. Nick Castellanos is 9-32(.281) with a homer and eight RBI against Bauer already. Miggy is 8-25(.320) with a homer and four RBI. My trust of Tigers players ends there though.
Chacin has been solid this year, but I don’t trust him in Philly. That is a notorious hitter’s park, and the Phillies have launched two homers off of Chacin in just 14 at bats. Maikel Franco and Carlos Santana have the homers, and are threats to do it again. I also like Odubel Herrera here.
Christian Yelich is only 3-15 against Vince Velasquez in his career, but two of those hits are home runs and he has driven in four.
Brian Dozier and Logan Morrison have both homered off of Garrett Richards. They also have five of the six Twins RBI off of him. Those are about the only Twins players I would use tonight.
If you want to stack Blue Jays, there is likely enough ammo for that. Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk, and Curtis Granderson have each homered off of Andrew Cashner so far.
I wont be going out of my way to include White Sox, but I’m all for Jose Abreu as a standalone option. He walked, singled, and drove in two in Sale’s only start against his former team.
I don’t really know whether to make heads or tails of Frankie Montas. I’m not going to use him, nor am I going to stack against him. There are simply too many other good options out there. However, Moose and Merrifield are worth a look if you want a piece of this.
Bargain Shoppers:
Hunter Pence is the only current Giant to hit a homer off of Stephen Strasburg. Do you trust him to do it again? Brandon Crawford has five RBI in 15 at bats off of Strasburg. Truth be told, I trust him more than Pence.
I’m not a big fan of Luke Weaver in Cincinnati. I know where the potential comes from, but man, the balls can fly out of there. I would rather use Adam Duvall, who has the Reds’ only homer off of Weaver so far. Gennett and Votto are good plays as well.
Arguably the two worst Mets hitters right now, Jose Bautista and Jose Reyes, are the only ones that have done anything against Tanaka. Bautista is 10-39 with two homers and six RBI against Tanaka. If you are ever going to throw that dart, tonight could be the night.
A solo homer by Franmil Reyes was all that the Padres could muster against Caleb Smith the first time around. Can he do it again?
Only two Rangers have a batting average better than .217 off of Justin Verlander, and they are both very cheap. Adrian Beltre is 17-60(.283) with a homer and five RBI. Robinson Chirinos is 4-11 with two homers and three RBI if you are thinking about playing the weather and not the opposing pitcher.
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
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