MLB DFS Bargain Bin
Welcome to the Thursday evening slate MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide you with at least one selection that would be considered a “value play” relative to the top-priced players at each position for that particular slate.
Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note them as a “XYZ site-only special” underneath the main selection.
- On occasions when FanDuel lists a player at a different position than the other sites, I’ll note it in the player’s entry.
- Depending on the slate, I may recommend only one outfield value option. Again, when sticking to the true spirit of what constitutes a viable value play, the pool of candidates can narrow pretty quickly. I don’t want to forcibly recommend three players in the outfield when I only feel one might be worthwhile, as this would be a disservice. However, if there’s more than one candidate I feel comfortable with, I’ll certainly deviate from that model.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out-of-the-way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved on Thursday evening’s MLB slate!:
MLB DFS Bargain Bin
Anibal Sanchez, ATL vs. SDP- Yahoo ($35)/ FanDuel ($6,300)/ DraftKings ($5,500)/ FantasyDraft ($10,900)
The Padres check in with an NL-low .259 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road over the last three weeks of play (252 plate appearances), along with a .115 ISO, -11.2 wRAA and mammoth 29.0 percent strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, Sanchez has taken surprisingly well to his new Atlanta digs, and he’s generated a .160 BAA, 2.57 ERA and .295 wOBA over 14 home innings. He’s also yielding a minuscule 22.0 percent hard contact rate at Turner Field, and he was stellar against the Nationals his last time out, firing seven innings of two-hit, scoreless ball. Sanchez’s price stands out on the short slate, and he makes for a nice value pivot off Matt Koch, who many that might be trying to save cash might be on against the Mets.
John Ryan Murphy, ARI vs. NYM- Yahoo ($12)/ FanDuel ($2,600)/ DraftKings ($3,500)/ FantasyDraft ($6,800)
Speaking of the D-Backs- Mets matchup, Murphy makes for a significantly underpriced play in a tantalizing matchup versus lefty Jason Vargas, who’s allowed a .377 wOBA to right-handed hitters, including a .434 figure to the 53 he’s faced on the road. Granted, Vargas has been progressively better as the season has unfolded, but he’s undeniably been bad on the road against righty bats, as further evidenced by the 28.9 percent line drive rate and 50.0 percent hard contact rate he’s yielded to that handedness.
Murphy has been lethal against lefties, having hit five of his eight homers of the season versus that handedness, and also posting a .406 wOBA against southpaws that climbs to .493 when facing them on the road. He’s also touched up that handedness for an absurd 46.2 percent line drive rate and 61.5 percent hard contact rate at Chase Field, and he owns a .688 wOBA against the sinker, Vargas’ most frequently thrown pitch and one that he’s allowing a .515 wOBA on thus far this season.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin
Ryon Healy, SEA vs. BOS- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($3,000)/ DraftKings ($3,600)/ FantasyDraft ($7,300)
Healy’s red-hot bat apparently isn’t enough to overcome a perceived tough matchup against David Price in the eyes of the salary cap gods. He comes at a very reasonable cost (especially on Yahoo) for a player who’s already slugged five homers – including four in the last three games – and owns a .388 wOBA and .349 ISO over his first 44 plate appearances of June.
Healy also owns a .340 wOBA and .275 ISO against left-handed pitching overall this season, along with a 47.1 percent hard contact rate against them at Safeco Field that ranks as his best split against either handedness in that category. Meanwhile, Price has allowed six of his seven homers on the season to righty bats, along with a 35.1 percent hard contact rate when facing them on the road.
It’s also worth noting that Price has also surrendered a .375 wOBA when throwing his four-seam fastball, a pitch that Healy owns a .351 wOBA against this season.
Brock Holt, BOS at SEA- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,800)/ DraftKings ($3,400)/ FantasyDraft ($6,600)
As customary, Holt is priced extremely reasonably, and his cost seems especially appealing when considering the career-best .309/.391/.436 line he’s generated over his first 128 plate appearances. He’ll get to tee off against a struggling former ace in Felix Hernandez, who’s yielded a .351 wOBA (including seven homers) to left-handed hitters, along with a 37.5 percent hard contact rate.
Holt counters with a .342 wOBA versus righties that climbs to .382 when facing them outside of Fenway, and a 32.0 percent line drive rate versus that handedness on the road as well. He’s also sporting a .340 wOBA overall in his first 33 plate appearances of June, and he boasts a .421 wOBA versus the sinker, a pitch that Hernandez has thrown more than any other and is allowing a .386 wOBA on thus far.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin
Christian Arroyo, TAM at NYY- Yahoo ($8)/ FanDuel ($2,500)/ DraftKings ($3,200)/ FantasyDraft ($6,400)
Yankees starter Domingo German has largely been a weak link of their rotation this season, and Arroyo makes for an affordably priced way to attack him. German checks in allowing a .343 wOBA and 42.1 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters, along with massive 40.7 percent line drive and 33.3 percent HR/FB rates against them at Yankee Stadium. He’s off to a rough start in June overall as well, generating a 4.97 ERA, .338 wOBA and 4.83 xFIP over his first two starts of the month while also allowing a season-high 44.7 percent hard contact.
Arroyo has been excellent against right-handed pitching thus far over a modest sample, as borne out by his .318 average, .371 wOBA and 47.1 percent hard contact rate against that handedness. He’s also proven an effective fastball hitter so far (.370 wOBA versus the four-seam) while German has allowed a .351 wOBA on. The change-up synergy is even better, as Arroyo boasts a .475 wOBA against that pitch while German has yielded a .390 wOBA when throwing it.
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Amed Rosario, ARI vs. NYM- Yahoo ($10)/ FanDuel ($2,100)/ DraftKings ($2,800)/ FantasyDraft ($5,800)
Granted, Rosario typically doesn’t jump off the page when making lineup decisions, but again, we’re looking for value bats and doing so on a short slate. Moreover, his matchup against Matt Koch is actually sneaky-good, considering the .433 wOBA (including eight homers), 5.11 xFIP and 47.6 percent hard contact rate Koch has allowed to righty bats, with the last figure climbing to 48.7 percent when facing them at Chase Field.
Rosario offers only modest power, but Chase, despite a downgrade of sorts this year as a hitter’s park presumably due to the presence of the humidor, is still a solid environment for hitters and does still lead MLB in one interesting category in terms of park factor – triples (2.400). While not exactly the most common type of hit, it’s worth noting the speedy Rosario has six three-baggers over his first season-plus in the majors, and he accumulated a whopping 35 over a four-year minor-league career as well.
Didi Gregorius, NYY vs. TAM- ($7)
Nick Markakis, ATL vs. SDP- Yahoo ($16)/ FanDuel ($3,900)/ DraftKings ($4,300)/ FantasyDraft ($8,400)
Markakis is the first of two outfielders that are particularly priced below their production and upside. The veteran is enjoying the best season of his long career, slashing .328/.388/.493 over his first 299 plate appearances, and he owns a .325 average, a .372 wOBA, a 28.1 percent line drive rate and a 36.9 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching overall. His history against Padres starter Tyson Ross is noteworthy as well – Markakis has touched him up for a .625 average over 11 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, Ross’ Achilles heel has been lefty bats, as they’ve gotten to him for a .364 wOBA overall, and a 34.0 percent line drive rate and 41.5 percent hard contact rate when he’s faced them away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park. He’s been hit hard so far in June as well, yielding a .310 BAA, .390 wOBA, 34.4 percent line drive rate and 53.1 percent hard contact rate over 10.1 innings.
Finally, as expected, Markakis is essentially performing well against every pitch this season, and it’s worth noting he’s posting a .387 wOBA and robust 22.1 wRC against the four-seam fastball, Ross’ second-most used pitch and one he’s yielding a .334 wOBA and 37.9 percent line drive rate on.
Mitch Haniger, SEA vs. BOS- Yahoo ($13)/ FanDuel ($3,700)/ DraftKings ($4,200)/ FantasyDraft ($8,400)
David Price’s propensity for allowing some hard contact to right-handed bats was discussed earlier in Healy’s entry, and Haniger is yet another blistering-hot Mariner that comes in priced very reasonably relative to recent production. Haniger already boasts five homers, a .385 wOBA and a .313 ISO over his first 53 plate appearances of June, and a .359 Woba against left-handed pitching on the season. He’s made hard contact against that handedness at a 48.3 percent- clip versus that handedness at Safeco Field as well, and a .397 wOBA and 168 wRC against the four-seam fastball that Price allows a .375 wOBA on.
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!