MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday June 14
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Wednesday’s MLB DFS split slate was a mixed bag for me as the early slate really became more about who I did play (Chris Young with a late HR in my Angels stack) versus who I did not play (chalky Cubs stack which well flat) which determined my position ahead of the field in the majority of the early contests I played. On the Main Slate, I went all in on the Dodgers with low ownership expected and well I was right on the low ownership part as essentially the entire stack was 5% or less owned in GPP’s – unfortunately outside of a Justin Turner HR, the Dodgers offense was largely uninspiring on this night.
We have some BIG news at Fantasy CPR as we are now looking for PAID writers to join our team to write about fantasy sports. Seasonal or DFS, any sport you want – get your voice heard and get paid for talking fantasy sports. Apply today HERE!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:
We have an interesting four game slate that at first glance seemed pretty straight forward to me but the more I dove into it, the more I was intrigued by some builds that I think could be off the radar a bit. The first decision you are going to have to make is whether or not to pay up for Justin Verlander ($25.8K) against the A’s in Oakland as the clear top arm on this slate. For as good as Verlander has been this year there are some recent trends that give me pause in paying this lofty price tag for him as his K rate over the last month is down 4% off his season long number (27.9% over the last month versus 31.8% on the season) and while his ERA is a sparkling 1.87, his xFIP and SIERA at 3.83 and 3.39 respectively tell you regression could be on its way. Verlander has had a swinging strike rate under 10% in three of his last five starts an although I certainly respect him and cannot argue the play, this is likely not a spot I am going to go on the Early Slate.
Mike Clevinger ($18.4K) seems like the logical pivot off Verlander with the best pure K match-up on the board against the White Sox but I am having a really tough time clicking on him at this price when you consider he has a 20% K rate on the season. I know Clevinger just faced this team and went 6.2 IP with 1 ER and 7 K’s but honestly that ceiling is not enough to 1) Pay off this price tag and 2) Make me scared to fade him.
Ok Brian, so on a four game slate you just told us not to play the two best pitchers available – true genius. Ok take a deep breath, relax and let me tell you why you should play Vince Velasquez ($13.6K) and Lance Lynn ($13.9K) today.
Yes – I just wrote that and honestly, I think its a viable route.
First, Velazquez has the highest K rate of any arm on this early slate over the last month as he is sporting a 28.7% K rate which is 13th in all of baseball and although his ERA is a bloated 4.78, his xFIP and SIERA are showing 3.14 and 3.37 which means he actually has some positive regression coming his way. Velazquez dominated right-handers with a 29% K rate on the season and will face a predominately right-handed Rockies line-up. Wait, I feel like I wrote this before – ah yes Nick Pivetta was basically in the same exact spot yesterday as the chalky SP2, owned at 40% plus in tournaments where he proceeded to give up 6 ER in 5 innings of work.
So why would I go back to this today when we got burned by the same spot last night? Well, that is exactly why you go back to it. The metrics weren’t wrong yesterday with Pivetta, you just fell on the wrong side of variance and when everyone jumps off, that is exactly where you jump back on.
Now, there is risk here, especially with the lefties as Velasquez is giving up a .279 ISO to left-handed hitters this season and he has especially struggled at home, giving up 7 HR in only 14 IP this season. I do not normally recommend taking hitters against our pitchers in MLB DFS but on a short slate like this, I think you could actually roster someone like Charlie Blackmon ($10.3K) even with Velasquez with the understanding that VV may give up a homer or two ( likely to a LHB) but that he also has massive K upside to mask whatever damage he does give up.
Lance Lynn ($13.9K) is not usually an arm I look to roster as his 22% K rate certainly would not jump off the page to anyone but if you dig deeper you see that his upside exists against RHB where he has a 26.3% K rate versus only 15% versus lefties. With the Tigers on tap this afternoon it would seem likely that Lynn faces a majority of RHB and Lynn comes into this game in great recent form. Lynn has gone four straight starts with 6 or more IP, 2 or fewer ER, 5 K’s per game and between 18-23 FP in each outing including one against this very same Detroit team where he went 6.2 IP, shutting out the Tigers with only 1 walk and 4 K’s for 22.8 FantasyDraft points.
MLB DFS – Top Early Slate Hitting:
We have two elite and high-priced offenses on this early slate in the Indians and Astros but I wonder how many will actually pay up for them with Verlander/Clevinger at SP and the fact that no offense has a team total of 5 or higher which typically signals a “must have” spot from Vegas.
The Indians will take on LHP Carlos Rodon who over the last two seasons is giving up a .210 ISO, .334 wOBA and has a double-digit walk rate versus right-handed batters over that span. The Indians have three batters at the top of their order with a .200+ ISO against LHP over the last two seasons with each batter having a 37% HC rate or higher with Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion all looking like elite options. Whenever the Indians play a LHP we also get some value so keep an eye on guys like Rajai Davis and/or Brandon Guyer who could find their way into the line-up with their platoon advantage at punt prices.
The Twins offense will take on Michael Fulmer today in Detroit, a pitcher who is giving up a .205 ISO and .322 wOBA to left-handed batters on the season with a 35% HC rate and will be pitching in one of the best parks for left-handed power on the slate. Eduardo Escobar has absolutely been crushing RHP this season to the tune of .321 ISO with a 41% HC rate and can be paired with his teammate Eddie Rosario who is sporting a .253 ISO with a 42% HC rate, making them one of the best 1-2 stacks on the early slate.
Similar to the Indians, the Twins have some nice value plays if you are looking to pay up as Logan Morrison, Max Kepler and Robbie Grossman all get the platoon advantage at punt price points across FantasyDraft today. Morrison at $5.7K is a steal on this slate as his .268 ISO against RHP and a 40% HC rate in the heart of the order for Minnesota makes him one of the best point per dollar plays on the board and a great salary saver if paying up at SP.
The Astros are the team that intrigues me the most on the slate because I truly wonder how people will treat their opponent Frankie Montas who comes into this game with 3 fantastic starts and a crisp 1.25 ERA on the season. The underlying numbers (4.06 xFIP and 4.17 SIERA) scream regression and this is a pitcher with a massive 40.6% HC rate with only a .238 BABIP – this luck is going to run out at some point and I think stack the Astros today could be sneaky.
On the season, Montas is giving up a 44% HC rate to RHB with only a 6% soft contact rate so I think stacking the top 4 Astros here – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman – becomes a stack with massive upside that may get over-looked as people overweight Montas first three starts against Arizona and the Royals (twice).
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Vince Velasquez ($13.6K)
SP: Lance Lynn ($13.9K)
IF: Carlos Correa ($9.1K)
IF: Alex Bregman ($8.3K)
IF: Jose Altuve ($9.3K)
OF: George Springer ($9.1K)
OF: Jose Ramirez ($9.7K)
OF: Eddie Rosario ($9.9K)
UTIL: Eduardo Escobar ($9.1K)
UTIL: Edwin Encarnacion ($9K)
Slate Overview: The path of least resistance on this slate is certainly to pay up at pitching with Verlander and/or Clevinger but I think paying down for both Velasquez/Lynn is a route I want to explore as I believe the ceiling for Verlander and Clevinger is not consistent with their elevated price tags and by paying down, I can get some solid K upside while loading up on all the bats I could possibly want – a roster build the Verlander owners will have no choice but to abandon with his salary being so high.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
We get a four game main slate to cap off a full day of MLB DFS and although we have some nice arms in Blake Snell (against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium), David Price (versus a red-hot Seattle team) and Tyson Ross (in Atlanta’s hitting environment), you can see the match-ups are not exactly ideal for any of these pitchers.
Rather than pay up for pitching on this slate, I actually think I will pay down for both of my pitchers with Domingo German ($13K) being my favorite play as a -170 home favorite against the Tampa Bay Rays. German has a 29% K rate on the season with a massive 33% K rate against RHB and Tampa is a team that will likely roll out 5-6 right-handed hitters which sets up perfectly for German in this spot. The Rays have the lowest team total on the board, German has a slate leading 14% swinging strike rate and at this price point, you can load up on all the high-end batters you will want to play (more on that in a moment).
Matt Koch ($11.7K) is a fun DFS player to talk about as most people scream REGRESSION every time the guy takes the mound and listen, he has had his share of blow up spots with 5 or more ER surrendered in 3 of his last five starts but he seems to sandwich those with gems with exceptional starts that keep people talking about him. To be clear, the metrics on Koch are not pretty as any pitcher with a 5 xFIP and a hard contact rate at 45% is normally someone we pick on and not roster in MLB DFS but right now I am going to play any and all pitchers against the Mets until they show me something….anything.
I am a Mets fan and the last few weeks of “offense” has been about as bad a stretch as I can remember – it reminds me of their pre- Yoenis Cespedes trade when guys like Eric Cambpell were hitting clean-up for the Amazins. Not only are the Mets are a complete mess at the plate right now but with this game being in Arizona, Koch gets the benefit of the humidor and a better pitching environment. Over the last two weeks, the Mets are striking out at a 27% clip with a paltry .094 ISO scoring FIFTEEN total runs over the last FOURTEEN days.
I understand the Koch regression but we have seen him put up solid outings and right now, I would play former NY Mayor Ed Koch against this Mets line-up if the DFS sites would allow me. Regression be damned!
If you need another punt, Anibal Sanchez ($10.9K) is somewhat intriguing when you consider his match-up against the Padres, the fact he has a 22% K rate over his last five starts and most impressively only a 25.3% HC rate.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Hitting:
One of the benefits of paying down at pitcher is you can stack up the big offenses on this slate and there is no better stack in my mind than the Red Sox against Felix Hernandez. Felix has been a mess against left-handed batters this season, surrendering a .254 ISO and 37% HC rate which could spell big time trouble against this Red Sox line-up. Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland and Rafael Devers are all sitting on the right side of the platoon split and with the salary savings at pitcher tou can easily complete a stack with Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez who have a .363 and .390 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Not only are the Mets a disaster at the plate right now but they are going to actually trot out LHP Jason Vargas tonight in place of Steven Matz who is dealing with a blister issue. Vargas is the worst. I literally cannot stand watching him pitch for my Mets and there is no better one-off play on this slate in my mind than Paul Goldschmidt – he will be in every line-up I make tonight. Goldy has a .418 ISO and 54% HC rate against LHP this season – seriously read that again. I cannot imagine a scenario where Goldy does not take Vargas deep here and I think a stack is viable with someone like John Ryan Murphy who has an impressive .354 ISO against lefties this season and you can add cheaper pieces like Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed who both havd .230+ ISO marks against southpaws this season.
My goal is to stack the Red Sox as much as possible which means I am likely looking for more one-off plays around them which leads me to Nelson Cruz against David Price. Cruz has an absurd .415 ISO and 53% HC rate against LHP this season and has solid BvP success against Price going 9 for 28 with 2 HR’s and a .220 ISO mark. I also expect Gary Sanchez to be back in the Yankee line-up tonight against LHP Blake Snell, a pitcher who he has owned in his career, going 4 for 10 with 3 HR’s so using him as a BvP one-off play could help round out your roster tonight.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Domingo German ($13K)
SP: Matt Koch ($11.7K)
IF: Paul Goldschmidt ($11.1K)
IF: Mitch Moreland ($8.9K)
IF: Rafael Devers ($6.4K)
OF: Mookie Betts ($10.5K)
OF: J.D. Martinez ($11.1K)
OF: Andrew Benintendi ($11.2K)
UTIL: Nelson Cruz ($8.5K)
UTIL: Gary Sanchez ($7.4K)
Slate Overview – Pay down for pitching and stack the Red Sox is where my head is at first look. Personally I just don’t see the upside to risk paying up for these pitchers on the Main Slate and instead will target two of the worst offenses in baseball with my SP’s against the Rays and Mets. Be smart with your bankroll on these four game slates – the margin for error is razor-thin and it can be a quick drain on your bankroll so try to practice some bankroll management even though you want to bet your house on Goldy versus Vargas tonight!
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!