Nylon Calculus: NBA Draft prospect red flag analysis

Ed Weiland is a writer for the Hoops Analyst and developed a pretty straightforward categorical benchmark to use when prospecting potential NBA players. If a prospect hadn’t met those standards, then a red flag is raised for that prospect’s respective ability.

It’s a simple system but it’s a great tool for taking a first pass at draft prospects and identifying strengths and weaknesses relative to other players at the same position, as well as historic prospects who have come before them.

In the interview above, Weiland posited whether any improvements could be made to his standard so I decided to tweak the standards a bit and run them through this year’s draft class. Here’s what I used.

I’d added field goal attempts as part of the analysis, as Weiland had mentioned that a player attempting more field goals per game could assuage worries about a player’s field goal percentage. As you’ll see with Trae Young, 2-point field goal percentage can be below the cutoff, but a high point total and field goal attempt rate still conclude that a player is an elite scorer.

I increased the floor in regards to 3-point field goal percentage. 3-point shooting has become so important in today’s NBA, virtually every player needs to be shooting efficiently from deep. Heck, even centers should be shooting them now.

I’d also increased the assist-to-turnover ratio for point guards and almost doubled it for shooting guards. The blur between point guard and shooting guard is a little muddled, but there’s something nice about having a perimeter player pass well and hold onto the ball.

Offensive rating is a measurement of points produced per 100 possessions, which compliments rudimentary box score statistics. The 110 cutoff was chosen as an ode to Kris Dunn’s college career. At Providence, he’d hovered at around the 105 offensive rating range, and the rating stood out as a blip on his relatively solid resumé (although his resume doesn’t necessarily stand up well to Weiland’s table either). Above am 110 offensive rating in college, there’s a clear jump in offensive talent and efficiency.

Wingspan differential was added to give a defensive aspect to each of these prospects. As explained in the link, it’s calculated by dividing the player’s wingspan relative to their own height, which leads to a percentage. This percentage can tell us what “average” or “lengthy” size feels like. The linked article mentions that while Greg Oden looks big, his wingspan was average at about five percent greater than his height. This is especially telling for smaller guards and wings, as having greater length at the NBA level helps with their defensive capability and ability to stay on the floor. The greater the percentage, the lengthier the size in relation to height.

Take a look at the following tables, broken down by position. If a square is yellow, that statistic for the player is right at the cutoff. The color red signifies an outright fail for a particular standard, while the green signifies the player exceeded the cutoff.

Any white cell means the data was inconclusive. European players don’t have an offensive rating, and not every prospect was invited to the combine for measurements.

Point Guards: Don’t sleep on Trae Young, Aaron Holiday

Trae Young is clearly above and beyond the rest of the field offensively for this point guard class and is also active defensively. It’s already been noted that his size will be a big detriment defensively. But compare him to Landry Shamet, who’s also lacking in size but doesn’t contribute rebounds, steals and blocks..

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander falls below the point cut-off in shot usage and definitely didn’t attempt enough shots in college. Given that he’s effective from deep, takes care of the ball, and has great size, Shai would appear to be set up for success.

De’Anthony Melton didn’t succeeded from 3-point range in college and falls right at the Kris Dunn line. Jalen Brunson was incredibly efficient in college, but his lack of relative size lends him a similar question mark as Trae Young.

Aaron Holiday is probably a little too low on most draft boards, while Collin Sexton is high. Other underrated point guard prospects include Jaylen Adams.

Shooting Guard: Slim pickings

Not many shooting guards went above the points cutoff, and not necessarily due to a lack of attempts. Outside of the European allure of Luka Doncic, it doesn’t appear to be a strong shooting guard class. Not many can score outside of Grayson Allen and Allonzo Trier, who carry their own deficiencies.

Players like Donte DiVincenzo shot up the board after stellar March Madness campaigns, but his size works against him on the NBA level. Similarly, Mykhailiuk was great from 3 for a guy so tall, but his wingspan is concerning.

Khyri Thomas could be a steal although I’m still relatively hesitant. Along with Zhaire Smith, these players need more fine tuning on the offensive end, but their size will make up for early developmental roadblocks.

Small Forward: Miles Bridges the favorite, Keita Bates-Diop a steal

Michael Porter Jr. probably shouldn’t be included due to his injured year, but nonetheless, he wasn’t spectacular when he decided to play. He may also turn out to be more of a power forward at the next level.

Miles Bridges, Keita Bates-Diop, and Chandler Hutchison all look like solid pickups at the least. Bonzie Colson should definitely be higher on NBA draft boards, despite his age. Kostas Antetokounmpo didn’t show much promise for Dayton and should be avoided.

Power Forwards: Probably avoid everyone but Bagley

Bagley III has a phenomenal offensive ability, but not much hustle and a wingspan below average. Jontay Porter withdrew and will need to show a big improvement in order to improve his draft stock. His size is lacking, but he grabs boards and hustles on the defensive end. Kevin Knox is a scorer, but he isn’t efficient nor does he have the appropriate size. Teams should probably avoid him.

Centers: Ayton, then everybody else

Deandre Ayton looks phenomenal, and the criticism he receives on the defensive end may be overstated, at least from a box score perspective.

Mohamed Bamba provides no guarantee for offensive success at the next level, but his efficiency is there. His 3-point percentage is terrible, but he was still attempting them in college. Given the wingspan differential is so great, he remains a top pick.

Udoka Azubuike was a pleasure to watch in college, but he definitely lacks offensive polish. Though, he looks to be one of the better defensive big men. I’d treat Moritz Wagner in the same vein as DiVincenzo. Both are too undersized to be taken seriously defensively.

Box score statistics don’t give holistic view. These statistics don’t necessarily give insight as to whether a player could possibly improve their 3-point shot in the NBA for example. Nonetheless, this analysis is based on a prospect’s “entry card” heading into the draft, much akin to an application for running in an exclusive marathon.

Next: How's it goink for 3-point oriented teams in the playoffs?

Age was largely disregarded, and in that same vein, progression or regression. A player like Grayson Allen had his best college year during his sophomore campaign, so regression isn’t immediately discernable. The categorical analysis also doesn’t tell us if a player that looks bad had actually improved. Moritz Wagner’s final year saw a huge improvement in the rebounding category, which was right at the 10 rebounds cutoff for centers. In the end, take this analysis with a grain of salt but use it as a framework to start layering other types of analysis onto.