Nylon Calculus: Who deserved the 2018 NBA Finals MVP?

In 564 BC, Arrhichion, the two-time returning champion for pankration, an ur-UFC combination of boxing and wrestling, was fighting for his third title in the ancient Olympic Greek games. The Platonic ideal of a competitor, when he was placed in a tight chokehold in the final match he did not submit. Instead he waited for a small opening and attacked the opponent’s foot, either dislocating the foot or breaking a toe, based on the account you cite. Due to the excruciating pain, the opponent tapped out; however, by this point Arrhicion had died, and he was still proclaimed the victor. It was the ultimate example of victory or death, and he was heroicized for his tragic third championship (whether it was due to the chokehold, a broken neck, or congenital heart defect.)

The Golden State Warriors, thankfully, had no players choked into the after-life, but they once again had to compete against the buzzsaw that is LeBron James, who has repeatedly questioned the notion of whether the Finals MVP has to go to a player on the winning team. Then there was Stephen Curry, who at his peak has an argument for the most dangerous offensive player ever, and his superstar teammate Kevin Durant, another previous winner of the Finals MVP. But who deserved the trophy?

This is a topic I’ve broached multiple times, but this year I started fresh and built another model. Instead of using game score, I’m using DRE, which is a better single-game metric due to its testing — game score’s box-score weights were not tested statistically — courtesy of Kevin Ferrigan. The one tweak is that I adjust rebounds for the era. In other words, you adjust the rebound numbers compared to how many there were per possession to this era of 2001 and on because the DRE metric was built on modern data. This significantly improved the fit. Also thanks to Krishna Narsu for some scraping pointers.

The most powerful predictor was, however, whether or not your team won the series. Obviously, since there’s only been one winner on losing team, the variable becomes quite important. In fact, we may have to change the definition of the award if the voting patterns aren’t going to change. I tried making an adjustment for how many games the series lasted — being a loser in a seven-game series is different than being a loser in a sweep — but alas, that brought up no statistical significance. I’d need more granular data, or more in general, for that.

Sadly, what was hugely important was just points per game. It was more powerful than DRE, which is a composite of the entire box-score. There’s obviously a lost missing in points per game — Andre Iguodala won the finals MVP for his defense on LeBron James, and there’s so much playmaking and creation you can do for your team that doesn’t involve scoring — but it’s something that voters get attracted to. If you know who won the series and who had the edge in points per game, you have a great shot at predicting the MVP. That should be obvious. Also, this is adjusted for teams: it’s points per games in the series, and DRE is adjusted for how many games you played out of the total possible.

According to the model, Kevin Durant indeed had the highest likelihood of winning the MVP, which reflects reality. But Stephen Curry was close behind, and I believe that’s accurate too because, despite his shooting percentages in some games, there was still a lot of talk of how important he was. He ended up with 64 percent of the vote, and Curry with 36 percent. My odds were close: 48 percent and 40 percent, respectively, and this was out of sample.

Table: finals odds 2018

While James did have perhaps the greatest post-season individual run of all-time, he failed to meet the ridiculously high standards one would need to win on the losing team. However, despite leading the series in points per game, he actually had a lower DRE thanks to Durant’s efficiency and rebounding. There is a real case for Durant over James even ignoring who won and how the series played out. There’s also the fact that James was playing injured.

Of course, I have to mention this is only using box-score stats. There’s too much to the game to be condensed into a simple line of stats, and that’s why we have cases like Wes Unseld in 1978 or Andre Iguodala recently. But I’m not exactly looking at who deserves to be considered most valuable; it’s closer to a model of how the voters decide. From my research, those basic box-score stats are more important, and points per game is the king. In fact, I wish I didn’t have to rely so much on the box-score for this, but that is how people decide, save for big storylines that grab attention like Willis Reed coming back from an injury.

LeBron James didn’t make a strong case this year, but looking back he’s had the most incredible finals run since Bill Russell: 2011 to 2018. In that span he’s had four of the highest rated series since 1969. And yes, that’s Robert Horry down there; dude was efficient and averaged three steals and two blocks per game.

Table: Highest adjusted DRE in a series, 1969-2018

Looking at career totals using the model’s output for series finals MVP odds, Michael Jordan is still the undisputed leader. Remember this includes a series won or not; that hurts James among others. But James still has a fantastic legacy as he’s cleared Shaquille O’Neal and within striking distance of Tim Duncan. If I had included pre-1969 data Bill Russell and George Mikan would have definitely placed near the top. All told, it’s still not a bad list for a who’s who of Finals stars.

Table: Career model finals MVP shares leaders, 1969-2018

Why do I still care so much? Why do I care we still have this incredible refusal to vote for an amazing individual performance on a losing team, even if the award is for an individual? There is an importance of recording history accurately for future generations because we have no idea how perception will change with the ages and what a poor vote can do to a player’s reputation.

Next: NBA Draft prospect red flag analysis

The crux of that heroic story about Arrhichion, overshadowed by the incredible win, was a decision. It’s a single choice made by a referee that cemented a figure and a story’s place in history for thousands of years. A single decision can decide a crucial game, like the first game of the series, or it can write the player’s Hall of Fame biography. LeBron James has performed at a level rarely seen in NBA history, and he’s done it so long he deserves to be named among the very best. But a few errant decisions may ultimately limit his place among the game’s Pantheon.