Nylon Calculus: The NBA is obsessed with versatile wings

Throughout the 2017-18 NBA season, it became increasingly clear that the league values multi-positional players who can switch across matchups more than it values almost anything else. Shooting remains at a premium and players who can snipe away at the basket will always find their way onto the floor, but failing that, the surest way to get minutes in the modern NBA is to be a flexible wing who can guard anybody on the perimeter and handle the occasional big man in the post, or a versatile forward who can switch out onto guards in a pinch.

This trend became even more apparent during the playoffs, as teams routinely pulled their centers off the floor in favor of stocking the court with even more wings. It reached a crescendo during the Western Conference Finals, as the Warriors’ Death Lineup (featuring 6-foot-7 Draymond Green at center) went toe-to-toe with the Rockets’ Tuckwagon Lineup (featuring 6-foot-5 P.J. Tucker at center) for much of the series.

When those lineups matched up with each other, every single player on the floor save for Stephen Curry and Chris Paul was listed by their team with a height between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-9. It was not an aberration, but rather the culmination of a long-term shift in the league’s minute distribution.

During the regular season, 57.6 percent of all rotation minutes were given to players listed between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-9. During the playoffs, that number ticked up to 61.1 percent, which marked the first time since at least 2000 (and likely the first time in the modern era, given the way the game has evolved) that the percentage of playoff minutes played by players standing 6-foot-4 to 6-foot-9 crept over 60 percent. (You can also see that the figure has shot up from 50.2 percent at the beginning of the millennium. The first time LeBron James hit free agency, back in 2010, it was still 51.6 percent. When he went back to Cleveland, it was still at 52.3 percent. Things have changed drastically in the last few years.)

It was the third time in the last four years (i.e. the Warriors Era) that the percentage of minutes given to players standing 6-foot-4 to 6-foot-9 was higher during the playoffs than it was during the regular season. (Such players received the exact same share of playoff and regular-season minutes during the 2016-17 campaign.) Those players’ share of both regular-season and playoff minutes appears to be steadily rising.

More than that, it’s become apparent that the most successful playoff teams give the lion’s share of their minutes to these like-size players. This makes it easier to switch across multiple positions on defense, of course, but also often puts more players on the floor who can make a play with the ball in their hands. The construction of Golden State’s Death Lineup is the perfect example, and it should likely come as no surprise that the Warriors have ranked either first or second in the percentage of playoff minutes distributed to players standing 6-foot-4 to 6-foot-9 in each of the last four seasons. The Cavaliers, the Warriors’ opponent in each of their four Finals appearances, have ranked no lower than sixth.

Only two of the eight Conference Finalists from the last four seasons gave fewer than 50 percent of their playoff minutes to players listed between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-9, and both of those teams failed to reach the Finals. Perhaps that shouldn’t be surprising: the team that gave a greater percentage of its playoff minutes to players listed between 6-4 and 6-9 has won an incredible 42 out of 60 series (70 percent) over the last four years.

During last night’s NBA draft, the league leaned even harder into this trend. Though five of the first eight picks were listed by their college teams at 6-foot-10 or taller, the first round still ended up featuring 19 players listed between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-9, including 18 of the 23 players selection between picks No. 8 and 30. The same thing happened in the second round, where five of the first eight picks were listed at 6-foot-3 or shorter, but we still wound up with 19 of the 30 selections being players listed between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-9, including 17 of the final 23 players taken in the draft.

In all, 63.3 percent of the picks (and 61.3 percent of the draft capital) were used on players listed between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-9. (If that 61.3 percent figure sounds familiar, that’s because it’s damn close to the 61.1 percent of playoff minutes given to players in that size range this season.)

Note: Draft capital was calculated by ranking every pick in reverse order, so the No. 1 pick is worth 60 points, No. 2 is worth 59 points, etc. all the way down to No. 60, which is worth one point. It’s a crude estimation but useful for this exercise.

The only teams who didn’t select at least one player standing between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-9 were the Cavaliers (Collin Sexton was listed at 6-foot-3), Grizzlies (Jaren Jackson Jr. was listed at 6-foot-11 and Jevon Carter at 6-foot-2), Kings (Marvin Bagley at 6-foot-11), Raptors (no picks) and Heat (no picks). The Sixers—who had a relative dearth of this type of player compared to other playoff teams, as only the Blazers gave fewer minutes to players listed between 6-4 and 6-9 during the postseason — took three of them to lead the league (Zhaire Smith at 6-foot-4, Landry Shamet at 6-foot-5, and Shake Milton at 6-foot-6).

Next: On a scale of one to basketball: How to get the NBA Draft Happies

Given the type of skills teams value, it seems likely that the league will continue to move in this direction, and players in this size range will continue to become even more valuable. There’s a reason every team in the league is clamoring for wings. The coaches know they have to turn to those types of players to make their offensive and defensive systems work. General managers and decision-makers gave those coaches a lot more ammo to work with on Thursday night, and it’s likely that they’ll continue doing the same in the years to come.

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