MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Sunday June 24
Welcome to the Sunday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Saturday’s MLB DFS slate was really underwhelming and pretty low scoring across both of the slates. On the early slate four of the top six scorers were starting pitchers as Zack Greinke, Dylan Bundy, Chase Anderson and Wilmer Font led the way while Yadier Molina and his two home run game was the key offensive player to own. The main slate was not much better as Mike Leake, Jose Bautista and Caleb Ferguson (in relief of Kershaw) were the top three scorers on the slate just as we all predicted. If you survived Saturday’s slate than be thankful, it was ugly and let’s turn the page and move on!
We have some BIG news at Fantasy CPR as we are now looking for PAID writers to join our team to write about fantasy sports. Seasonal or DFS, any sport you want – get your voice heard and get paid for talking fantasy sports. Apply today HERE!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
We get a nice 11 game Main Slate on FantasyDraft today which starts off at 1:05PM EST and will include all games through the 2:10PM EST start times which means we should have all the line-up news we need well before lock today.
The key for me on any MLB DFS slate is to understand the slate context – simply jumping in and just listing out picks can be dangerous without understanding the larger picture and how we likely see the slate unfolding. On this Sunday MLB DFS slate what really jumps out to me is we have a handful of elite K arms including Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale who rank 2nd and 3rd in all of baseball this season with 36% and 34% K rates in 2018 respectively. With that context in mind, this looks to be a slate where chasing K’s is going to be king – simply “surviving” with a decent pitching performance is likely not going to cut it so my goal is to identify strikeout upside as the paramount factor when selecting my starting pitcher.
Jose Berrios ($22.8K) sits at a price point just a notch below Cole and Sale but with a match-up against Texas in Minnesota, I could argue he is the best SP on the entire slate. First, the Rangers have a 25.7% K rate against RHP this season which is the third highest mark in all of baseball which gives him a better match-up on paper than either Cole (versus KC) or Sale (versus Seattle) has today. Secondly, and most importantly in my mind, is we get Berrios at home where he is a completely different pitcher – sporting a 29%K rate versus 20% on the road and with an ERA/xFIP under 3 which is over a run better than his marks on the road in 2018.
This is not a new statistic either as in 2017 Berrios had a 5% higher K rate and an ERA of only 2.41 at home so the sample size is large enough to make Berrios at home an elite MLB DFS play every time out. Over his last five home starts, Berrios has struck out 42 batters (8.4 K’s per start) and has eclipsed the 30 fantasy point mark in three of those outings which puts his upside right in line with the more expensive Cole and Sale on this slate.
Domingo German ($18.5K) comes into this game on a three game tear with 9K’s or more against the Mets, Mariners and Rays, sporting an impressive 28:2 K:BB ration over that time. Obviously the sample size is small but the fact that German is sporting a 38.7% K rate in these three starts with an absurd 20.9% swinging strike rate tells you that when he is on – he has the K upside to simply carry your DFS team. There is no pitcher in baseball with a swinging strike rate even remotely close to German since the calendar flipped to June and you even with his price up to $18.5K, I think there is still profit upside to be had here. German today will get to face the same Tampa squad he just went for 10K’s against in Yankee Stadium over 6 innings of work and by pairing him with Berrios on this slate you capture two of the top K arms available while still having over $7.3K per batter to fill our your FantasyDraft line-up.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
I was so excited to stack the Dodgers today against LHP Jason Vargas but he “got hurt” running – yes, the 2018 New York Mets everyone! There has not been official notification from the Mets on who will start but the expectation is that RHP Chris Flexen will get the start after being recalled from AAA.
The Mets are placing Jason Vargas on the disabled list due to a strained calf. Chris Flexen will come back up from Triple-A, but will not necessarily start tomorrow.
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) June 24, 2018
Flexen is a low K arm who made 9 starts last season for the Mets and gave up 10 HR’s and 33 ER’s. In AAA this season, Flexen has started 11 games with a 5+ ERA and only a 20% K rate and with 85 degree temperatures in NY today with winds blowing out to CF, this could be a Dodgers stack that wins you a GPP.
If we break down the Dodgers bats, we have five hitters that have a .220+ ISO against RHP this season including Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig and Max Muncy. In 2017, Flexen surrendered a .200+ ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate with right-handers having a near 40% HC rate so I would not hesitate to play the right-handed batters here like Justin Turner and frankly any and all Dodgers in this line-up are in play today – except Chase Utley, I will never play him – ever. You know what you did Chase. #RubenTejadaForever.
With the high-priced pitching and the elite bats from the Dodgers as my priority, we will need some bargain bin plays and the Twins against Bartolo Colon is my favorite place to start. Logan Morrison ($6.4K) has a .200+ ISO againsy RHP the last two seasons and Colon has a .230 ISO with a 40% HC rate against left-handed bats the last two seasons and can be paired with Max Kepler ($6.3K) as a mini value stack to exploit one of the best match-ups on the board.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
SP: Jose Berrios ($22.8K)
SP: Domingo German ($18.5K)
IF: Yasmani Grandal ($7.2K)
IF: Justin Turner ($7.4K)
IF: Logan Morrison ($6.4K)
OF: Yasiel Puig ($7.3K)
OF: Joc Pederson (8.4K)
OF: Max Kepler ($6.3K)
UTIL: Cody Bellinger ($8.9K)
UTIL: Wilmer Flores ($6.7K)
Slate Overview: The name of the game on this slate is strikeouts as paying up for K’s is going to be the most critical step in building out your core and although Cole and Sale are great plays, I like the idea of dropping down and pairing Berrios with German for two elite K arms while still having the salary space to pay up for bats! Enjoy the slate and keep an eye on line-up news as with a Sunday day slate we could get some players resting which will open up additional value.
Next: DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!