MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tout Transparency Report for Sunday, June 24th
Before we get to today’s edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, we’ll look back at how Sunday’s suggestions fared in the MLB DFS Bargain Bin Tout Transparency Report.
In the interest of transparency and tracking trends, I’ll do a quick review after each day in which I suggest value plays to see what went right, and what didn’t exactly work out as planned.
Sunday turned out to be a particularly explosive day for two Bargain Bin recommendations — the Astros’ Yuli Gurriel and Sunday morning Twitter suggestion Yoan Moncada of the White Sox, who I’d thrown out as a pivot at second base from the resting Ben Zobrist. Each player left the yard — with Gurriel slugging a grand slam — and logged multiple hits, compiling a whopping 10 RBI between them.
The Reds’ Tucker Barnhart didn’t get to face Tyler Chatwood and his astronomical walk rate against lefty hitters after all, but he was still productive with a hit, walk, RBI and run. Twitter mention and Yahoo-only special Ozzie Albies laced a trio hits, scored two runs and stole a base in the Braves’ win over the Orioles. And, despite a modest team offensive showing for the D-Backs, Jake Lamb came through with a pair of hits and a run.
Sunday morning Twitter pivot Willy Adames — who I threw out as a value shortstop suggestion after the Cardinals’ Yairo Munoz was given an off day — came up empty in his first four at-bats, but extra innings helped him avoid a blanking. Adames drew a walk in his fifth plate appearance of the day and then propped up his fantasy production by swiping second.
Our trio of outfield suggestions managed to each put something up on the board as well. Marcell Ozuna paid off a modest price on Yahoo, FanDuel and FantasyDraft with a single, double, walk and RBI. The Cubs’ Ian Happ contributed a single, run and a walk, and Leonys Martin also tallied a single.
Finally, the pitching front was a mixed bag. Main suggestion Rich Hill wasn’t awful, but he certainly could have been better. The lefty allowed four earned runs on five hits over five innings while helping himself somewhat with five strikeouts.
However, Yahoo and FanDuel special Dereck Rodriguez was much better, largely handcuffing the righty-challenged Padres for a career-high seven innings while allowing a career-low four hits and surrendering just one earned run. Rodriguez earned the quality start bonus on FanDuel and equaled his personal high-water mark with six strikeouts.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin Best Value(s):
Gurriel’s, Moncada’s bats catch fire, Rodriguez deals- Both hitters provided massive returns on modest prices, going a combined 5-for-9 with two homers, 10 RBI and four runs. Meanwhile, Rodriguez turned in his finest start yet, becoming the latest right-hander to confound the Padres.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin Biggest Dud(s):
Martin quiet- No blankings among the main suggestions (although Yahoo-only special Manny Machado did go hitless), but Leonys Martin did have a quiet afternoon with just a single.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, June 25th Evening Slates
With our look back now complete, time to turn our attention to finding bargains for today’s slates!
Welcome to the Monday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the day’s ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.
Before we go bargain hunting, a few particulars about both format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). However, there are certainly occasions, particularly with Yahoo, where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as a “XYZ site(s) special”.
- On occasions when FanDuel lists a player at a different position than the other sites, I’ll note it in the player’s entry.
- Depending on the slate, I may recommend only one outfield value option. Again, when sticking to the true spirit of what constitutes a viable value play, the pool of candidates can narrow pretty quickly. I don’t want to forcibly recommend three players in the outfield when I only feel one might be worthwhile, as this would be a disservice. However, if there’s more than one candidate I feel comfortable with, I’ll certainly deviate from that model.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s take a look at where there’s cash to be saved Monday!
MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, June 25 Evening Slates
Pitcher
Jameson Taillon, PIT at NYM- Yahoo ($37)/FanDuel ($7,800)/DraftKings ($7,900)/FantasyDraft ($15,100)
Taillon gets a crack at a Mets squad that’s mustered a paltry and MLB-low .233 wOBA and 50 wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home over the last month, while also striking out at an MLB-high 28.1 percent clip. Meanwhile, Taillon has actually enjoyed more success on the road than at PNC Park, as he’s yielded a stingy .284 wOBA over 39.2 frames away from home. Taillon has also put together quality starts in his last two road outings, and an 18:4 K:BB over his last three starts in an opponent’s home park. And for what it’s worth, Taillon certainly should feel some good vibes when taking the mound at Citi Field, considering he shut out the Mets on two hits over eight innings there back on June 14, 2016 in what was his first major-league road start.
Catcher
Jorge Alfaro, PHI vs. NYY- Yahoo ($9)/FanDuel ($2,400)/DraftKings ($2,900)/FantasyDraft ($5,600)
Alfaro is significantly discounted across all four sites and draws a potentially rewarding matchup against Yankees rookie starter Jonathan Loaisiga, who’s struggled both with control and allowing hard contact to right-handed hitters. Loaisiga has issued six walks over his first 8.2 big-league innings, and he’s yielded a 31.3 percent line drive rate and 56.3 percent hard contact rate to the 23 right-handed hitters he’s faced thus far. Meanwhile, Alfaro has shown some nice pop with 15 extra-base hits (nine doubles, one triple, five home runs), 11 of which have come off righties. There’s some pitch-split synergy to take note of here as well — albeit over a small sample on Loaisiga’s part — as the rookie righty is allowing a .366 wOBA on the four-seam fastball, a pitch that Alfaro has produced a .340 wOBA (including seven extra-base hits) against.
Yahoo/FanDuel/FantasyDraft special:
Yasmani Grandal, LAD vs. CHC- Yahoo ($10)/FanDuel ($2,900)/FantasyDraft ($7,700)
MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, June 25 Evening Slates
First Base
Justin Bour, MIA vs. ARI- Yahoo ($12)/FanDuel ($3,000)/DraftKings ($3,500)/FantasyDraft ($6,500)
Bour will face off against the returning Shelby Miller, who’ll be making his first start since April 23, 2017. As that long absence implies, Miller is returning from Tommy John surgery, certainly a challenge in and of itself. That leaves Bour in a position to take advantage of a pitcher who allowed a .363 wOBA to left-handed hitters over his small sample last season before getting hurt, and a .400 wOBA (including nine homers) over a much larger sample in 2016. Bour has once again punished right-handed pitching this season, smacking 11 of his 12 homers versus that handedness on his way to a .382 wOBA, including .415 at home. Bour is also sporting a 30.4 percent line drive rate and 43.5 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching at Marlins Park, and he owns a .500 average with one homer and two RBI against Miller in eight career encounters.
Second Base
Josh Harrison, PIT at NYM- Yahoo ($12)/FanDuel ($2,700)/DraftKings ($3,800)/FantasyDraft ($7,200)
Harrison has hit right-handed pitching especially hard on the road, where he owns a 30.8 percent line drive rate and 42.3 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness. Harrison is also an excellent sinkerball hitter (.296 average, .384 wOBA), which dovetails well with Mets starter Seth Lugo‘s issues when utilizing the pitch (.286 BAA, .386 wOBA, 30.0 percent line drive rate). The Mets bullpen has also been especially vulnerable to right-handed hitters at home of late, allowing a 6.23 ERA and .373 wOBA (including seven homers) to that handedness over the last month of play.
Yahoo-only special:
Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. CIN- ($12)
MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, June 25th Evening Slates
Third Base
Kyle Seager, SEA at BAL- Yahoo ($14)/FanDuel ($2,900)/DraftKings ($4,100)/FantasyDraft ($8,300)
Seager draws a matchup against a friendly face in the Orioles’ Andrew Cashner, who he’s touched up for a .333 average, two homers and six RBI over 24 career encounters. Cashner has yielded a .360 wOBA (including 11 extra-base hits) to left-handed hitters at Camden Yards, and a .379 wOBA overall in 16 June innings. Seager has nine of his 13 homers versus right-handed pitching, along with a 47.6 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness on the road. There’s also perfect synergy between Cashner’s issues when throwing his four-seam fastball and Seager’s success against the pitch, as the former has allowed a .380 wOBA when throwing it this season while Seager has generated the same figure against it.
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Shortstop
Elvis Andrus, TEX vs. SDP- Yahoo ($16)/FanDuel ($3,200)/DraftKings ($4,200)/FantasyDraft ($8,300)
Andrus provides some reasonably priced right-handed exposure to Padres starter Joey Lucchesi, who’s allowed a .371 wOBA, 5.73 xFIP and 43.5 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters on the road. Lucchesi will be in the fertiile hitting environment of Globe Life Park as well, while Andrus checks in with a .382 wOBA against southpaws at home, along with a 53.9 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness overall. It’s also worth noting that Lucchesi has allowed a .350 wOBA and 16 extra-base hits (including five homers) when throwing his trademark four-seam fastball, a pitch that Andrus owns a whopping .454 wOBA and 202 wRC+ against.
Outfield
Matt Kemp– LAD vs. CHC- Yahoo ($18)/FanDuel ($3,400)/DraftKings ($4,100)/FantasyDraft ($8,100)
Kemp allows you some affordable exposure against Cubs first-time starter Duane Underwood, Jr, who’s displayed control issues throughout his various minor-league stops. Kemp is in the midst of his best season in years and sports a .312 average, seven homers, a .356 wOBA and a 41.0 percent hard contact rate versus righties, along with a 27.3 percent line drive rate against that handedness at home. It’s also worth noting that Cubs relievers, who could well play an expanded role in this game, have yielded a 26.3 percent line drive rate and 38.4 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters on the road over the last month of play.
Yahoo/DraftKings/FantasyDraft special:
Nick Markakis, ATL vs. CIN- Yahoo ($16)/DraftKings ($4,200)/FantasyDraft ($8,000)
Yahoo-only special:
David Peralta, ARI at MIA ($18)
Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots
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