DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Thursday, June 28

Welcome into the Thursday edition of the DFS MLB game by game breakdown! We have a six game slate on hand for today and there are a lot of ways to go.

Who’s ready for some afternoon DFS MLB baseball today? I know I’m ready to wash the stink off of yesterday. It couldn’t have gone much worse because the offense just flat-out didn’t show up and Kyle Gibson scuffled along to under 30 points. The only hitter that eclipsed double digits was Mookie Betts…at 12.5. Mike Minor had a no hit bid into the seventh inning and Chris Davis hit a home run last night. That tells you all you need to know about the slate and we’re ready for today.

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Marlins

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Greinke, RHP 

3.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 26.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .235 average, .298 wOBA, 23.8 K rate, 28.9 fly ball rate and 41.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .240 average, .311 wOBA, 27.6 K rate, 41.6 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard hit rate

Greinke is in a solid matchup and in a great ball park for pitching. He might be the most popular pitcher in cash games today but I’m kind of having a hard time paying up for him. The Marlins have games where they are a little pesky and Greinke should be giving up more to righties based on the fly ball and hard hit rates. Miami does strikeout at the 11th highest rate in baseball so that is attractive for Greinke. As lukewarm as I am on Greinke I’m not exactly ready to jam Marlins into my lineup. First off, I hate leaving my lineup to bad offenses(looking at you, Padres). Secondary, Greinke does have plenty of upside and Robbie Ray showed that yesterday. The righty for Arizona isn’t quite as good as he used to be, but I would lean towards his side of the game today.

Marlins Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto(if active), Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich

Marlins Probable Starter – Trevor Richards, RHP 

4.91 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 20.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .284 wOBA, 27.0 K rate, 39.6 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .297 average, .371 wOBA, 15.7 K rate, 37.8 fly ball rate and 48.0 hard hit rate

After the D-Backs completely ruined a lot of nights last night, they might go a little more under the radar today. Looking at the reverse splits, Paul Goldschmidt would have to be the number one play from this team. We’ll see how he shakes out among the other high salary players today but the matchup is enticing. The lefty hitters form Arizona look surprisingly poor by the metrics Richards has going for him. Some players might just run towards the lefties assuming that a mediocre righty pitcher is going to get rocked and that might still happen. Arizona has good lefty hitters that can overcome some bad splits. This side of the game has pieces that interest me, but I think other spots are going to be more attractive for what we typically look for to attack.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta

Secondary Options – Jon Jay, Jake Lamb, Ketel Marte

Home Run Pick – Derek Dietrich

DFS MLB – A’s at Tigers

*This analysis is a repeat from yesterday since Sean Manaea was pushed back a day. I really like some Tigers hitters today and think they could be an underrated stacking option*

A’s Probable Starter – Sean Manaea, LHP 

3.40 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 18.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .210 average, .270 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 22.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .204 average, .271 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 35.8 fly ball rate and 42.4 hard hit rate

I have some respect for Manaea and what he’s done this year but he has a very difficult task in front of him tonight. The Tigers rake lefty pitching this season, ranking third in average, sixth in OPS, ninth in ISO, seventh in wOBA and fifth in wRC+. That’s a long winded way to prove the Tigers are among the toughest matchups possible for Manaea tonight. I can’t really decide where I want to go in this game because the range of outcomes is pretty wide. My favorite play is at third base in Jeimer Candelario. He has a .394 wOBA which is basically second behind Nicholas Castellanos. The difference between these two players is Candelario has an ISO that is 102 pints higher and he’s $700 cheaper on FanDuel. I do like a Detroit stack but understand there’s risk here as Manaea has performed at a pretty high level.

Tigers Hittes to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario

Secondary Options – John Hicks, Jose Iglesias, James McCann

Tigers Probable Starter – Michael Fulmer, RHP 

4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 20.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .315 wOBA, 20.5 K rate, 35.2 fly ball rate and 38.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .259 average, .312 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 42.5 hard hit rate

About the only thing I got right yesterday was that Mike Fiers would troll the players who went heavy on A’s and I was on the money there. I fully expected it to blow up in my face but I’ll be first person to tell you I can never get Fulmer right. If I stack against him, he pitches very well. If I leave the game alone, he gets smacked around. The splits don’t point us in a good direction so I’d stick with Matt Olson, Khris Davis or even Matt Joyce as a cheap option. Jed Lowrie has had a big three games in a row but I don’t love his price on FanDuel. For reference, I like Goldy better than Olson or Davis today and they’re all right around the same price. Even with it being a smaller slate, I might leave this side alone. The biggest attraction here might be the fact that people will feel burned from last night and won’t go back to Oakland.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Olson, Khris Davis

Secondary Options – Jed Lowrie, Dustin Fowler, Matt Joyce

Home Run Pick – Jeimer Candelario

DFS MLB – Twins at White Sox

Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP

4.97 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 22.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .248 average, .365 wOBA, 19.9 K rate, 49.1 fly ball rate and 37.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .271 average, .351 wOBA, 25.1 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 31.2 hard hit rate

Odorizzi has hit the skid his past three starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched. He really got whacked the last time out when the Rangers tagged him for six earned in 1.2 innings and he could have a tough time today. Seeing all the fly balls he’s giving up, you must have some interest in a hitter like Yoan Moncada. He’s leading the everyday players in fly ball rate at 42.3 percent and the hard hit rate is 44.3 percent. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he leaves the yard and Odorizzi’s strikeout rate drops against lefties, which plays into Moncada’s wheelhouse as well. Jose Abreu is a fine option and the value option is Daniel Palka. His strikeout rate is really high and he might be best served as a GPP option. Odorizzi will need to prove he can right the ship before I’m willing to use him again.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

Secondary Options – Daniel Palka, Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson

White Sox Probable Starter – Lucas Giolito, RHP 

7.01 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 13.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .403 wOBA, 9.6 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .232 average, .322 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 41.7 fly ball rate and 28.9 hard hit rate

I will note once again that if Kevan Smith is catching, I likely won’t go with a full Twins stack here. Giolito has pitched MUCH better when Smith has caught and that included last time out. He did give up four runs but also went seven innings and punched out eight batters. That’s not a great start but by Giolito’s standards it was a borderline Cy Young start. I’m happy to go right back to Eddie Rosario here or Eduardo Escobar as their wOBA’s against righties are both over .400. I’m not paying near full price for Brian Dozier until he shows some life. Joe Mauer is a fine option for cash games but he lacks a lot of true upside. Logan Morrison hasn’t been very good against righty pitchers so far this season but if you’re going with a full Twins stack he’s got home run upside.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Options – If Keven Smith doesn’t catch, Joe Mauer, Logan Morrison, Ehire Adrianza

Home Run Pick – Yoan Moncada

DFS MLB – Mariners at Orioles

Mariners Probable Starter – Mike Leake, RHP 

4.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 14.4 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .262 average, .299 wOBA, 11.7 K rate, 28.1 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .256 average, .336 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

I won’t pay $8,000 for Leake on this slate on FanDuel, but it’s hard to ignore that Leake has actually been very solid lately. Other than a hiccup against the Red Sox, Leake has logged a quality start in six of his last seven games. He scored at least 37 fantasy points in all of those starts and I actually think he’ll do it again today. It’s really just a matter of price. He’s top five in salary but I’d rather play someone else in that range because Leake has no strikeouts to fall back on if he gives up runs. This side of the game is a steer clear spot for me. The Baltimore offense isn’t one I trust, especially against an extreme ground ball pitcher.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones

Orioles Probable Starter – Jimmy Yacabonis, RHP 

*Career Stats, 23 IP* 5.48 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and 8.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .214 average, .310 wOBA, 10.5 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .263 average, .343 wOBA, 7.6 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate

If your first reaction to reading the name of the probable starter wasn’t, “What in the world is a Jimmy Yacabonis?”, I kind of think you’re lying. The guy sounds like a random name that gets generated on a video game when the franchise is 15 years deep and current players have retired. The Mariners will likely be chalk and given the limited track record we have of Yacabonis, it’s hard to argue that. I wouldn’t talk you out of any recognizable name in the Seattle lineup today. The top five are full in play and Denard Span or Ryon Healy could potentially be a way to differentiate a Mariners stack. They will be the chalk on a small slate and you’ll likely need some type of exposure in cash games, especially if Seattle goes off.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options -1-7 in the lineup

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz, back to back

DFS MLB – Cubs at Dodgers

Cubs Probable Starter – Jose Quintana, LHP 

4.26 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 22.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .224 average, .276 wOBA, 27.2 K rate, 22.0 fly ball rate and 27.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .335 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 36.5 fly ball rate and 42.5 hard hit rate

Good luck Jose Quintana because you’re going to need it. Five starters have an ISO over .200 and three of them hit righty. Kike Hernandez, Matt Kemp and Chris Taylor have been crushing lefty pitching and FanDuel has made is way too easy to play Hernandez and Kemp together. The duo will cost you only $6,100 total and they both are likely locked into my core lineup.Even though Chris Taylor hasn’t been starting with a hamstring injury, he’s been pinch-hitting and successfully at that. I’d have no issues using him if he starts. Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy would be great against the grain plays because they hit lefty. Now, Quintana has handled lefties pretty well this season and I would only play this two in a full Dodgers stack. Quintana hasn’t pitched well enough to trust and I’m not playing him in Los Angeles today for any reason.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kike Hernandez, Matt Kemp

Secondary Options – Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger

Dodgers Probable Starter – Clayton Kershaw, LHP 

2.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 26.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .313 average, .370 wOBA, 30.6 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 36.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .221 average, .276 wOBA, 25.5 K rate, 27.5 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

Without looking, I’m betting not many people could guess how many times Kershaw has been over 40 FanDuel points in any start this season. In nine starts, he’s been over 40 points just once all season long. The Cubs are an easier matchup without the lefty destroyer Kris Bryant in the lineup and it’s fair to point out that we don’t get Kershaw cheaper than he is today. Given his “struggles” this season, I do think that Greinke is the best option for cash games on this slate. If we get word on a pitch count for Kershaw maybe he’ll enter the GPP discussion. I’m not in the business of targeting hitters against Kershaw even though he hasn’t been his normal self in 2018.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Chris Taylor

DFS MLB – Rockies at Giants

Rockies Probable Starter – Jon Gray, RHP 

5.52 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 28.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .271 average, .344 wOBA, 30.7 K rate, 32.5 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .287 average, .327 wOBA, 26.5 K rate, 24.0 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard hit rate

If you want the tournament pitcher of the day, you’ll hit Submit with Jon Gray in your lineup. He gets a massive park upgrade in San Francisco and his strikeouts have really taken a jump lately. The Giants have a very mediocre offense against righty pitching and this is a spot where you have to kind of not weigh the metrics too heavily. Gray has not been a good pitcher this season but that’s why we play DFS. He’s got a juicy matchup all the way around and I really don’t want Giants hitters today. With Gray suddenly striking out everyone and their mother, it seems silly to target against him.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey

Giants Probable Starter – Chris Stratton, RHP 

4.14 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 18.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .333 wOBA, 14.5 K rate, 32.5 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .302 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 38.1 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

If this game were anywhere else today, I would really be digging Rockies hitters. As things stand, it’s hard to not notice how cheap Charlie Blackmon is relative to hit he normally is. He’s under $4,000 and that seems like it’s too good to pass up on, regardless of his significant home/road splits. Stratton doesn’t miss lefty bats at a very high rate and that will help raise the floor for Blackmon. The home run upside isn’t the greatest but Blackmon can rack up the points. It’s difficult to vouch for the Colorado offense on the road as a whole. They are putrid away from Coors Field and you could argue Stratton is a great GPP play. The Rockies rank no higher than 23rd in baseball in any major offensive category on the road against righty pitching. It’s Blackmon or bust as far as I’m concerned.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Options – Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu

Home Run Pick – None, pitching rules the day in this series

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Zack Greinke  

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C/1B – James McCann

2B – Yoan Moncada

3B – Jeimer Candelario 

SS – Kike Hernandez

OF – Mitch Haniger, Denard Span, Matt Kemp 

Utility – Jean Segura

In cash games, I really don’t have an issue eating some of the Mariners chalk. They’re a good offense and should be able to have their way with a very unproven pitcher. McCann is just a punt option to make a lot of other things work although he rates very well against lefty pitching. I really feel like Moncada is hitting a home run today and his price is just right. The two Dodgers we discussed fit in so nicely that it’s hard to turn away from. I’m still not totally sold on Greinke but options you feel comfortable with are in short supply today. We’re going with a 3-2-2-1 build here and we’re heaviest on what should be the chalkiest offense of the day. If I lose because of a Yacabonis quality start, I’m just going to have to live with the results on that one.

The Core – Kike Hernandez, at least two Mariners although that could change

Stacks to Consider – Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers, Minnesota/Chicago game stack

Next: MLB DFS Bargain Bin Plays

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.