Fantasy Football 2018 Buy Low: Jimmy Graham
By Bill Pivetz
The Packers added a big weapon to their offense by signing Jimmy Graham. After three average seasons in Seattle, he is a buy low fantasy football option.
The Green Bay Packers haven’t had a fantasy football relevant tight end since Jermichael Finley in 2011. That may change this season. The team made a huge splash in the offseason by signing Jimmy Graham to a three-year deal. He had three average seasons in Seattle, making him a perfect buy low pick in drafts.
Graham was a beast with the New Orleans Saints. He averaged 950 yards and 10 touchdowns in five seasons. Then, in a surprising move, he was traded to the Seattle Seahawks. In those three seasons, Graham averaged 683 yards and six touchdowns per season.
As a result, he dropped from the No. 1 or 2 fantasy tight end to the bottom half of the top 10. I don’t think there was regression in his skill, but the scheme that the Seahawks ran. They have been more of a run-first offense despite Russell Wilson seeing an increase in pass attempts each season.
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Graham will now play on an offense that throws the ball. A lot. Not counting his injury-shortened season last year, Aaron Rodgers averages 545 pass attempts per 16 games. Wilson averaged 472 attempts.
The Packers have an opening in their offense when the team decided to let Jordy Nelson test free agency. The wide receiver corps leaves something to be desired. According to Roster Resource, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison are the starting wideouts.
Graham will likely be the No. 2 receiving option on this offense. He stands at 6-foot-7. Graham is a big guy and will be a red zone target. You should expect numbers closer to his New Orleans days than his numbers as a Seahawk. He has little competition behind him, Marcedes Lewis is listed as the No. 2 tight end with Lance Kendricks at No. 3.
According to ESPN’s PPR rankings, Graham is ranked 90th overall and as the No. 8 tight end. I think that is low, considering the team around him. Fantasypros ranks him 70th and fifth, respectively. That is a bit more reasonable, especially based on the significant drop-off at the position.
However, the majority of fantasy football owners use ESPN as their service. So, if your league uses ESPN, expect to draft Jimmy Graham in the middle rounds. I would draft him over contemporaries like Greg Olsen and Evan Engram.
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Owners need to forget about his time in Seattle. You are not drafting his past performances. That determines his ADP for the most part. But, you draft players based on what their value will be this season and Graham is being drafted too low based on his potential in Green Bay.